The Citadel Bulldogs at Western Carolina Catamounts: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETRamsey Center · at W Carolina · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: The Citadel and W Carolina
CIT	This season	WCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WCU 80–68 · win probability WCU 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WCU has more of the edges

CIT 0, WCU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WCUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CIT 27.9%, WCU 35.4%. Defensive: CIT 68.5%, WCU 73.7%

WCUBig

WCU offense vs CIT defense

Offense 171st of 366 against a defense 314th, on the model’s ratings

WCUSmall

CIT offense vs WCU defense

Offense 343rd of 366 against a defense 256th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: CIT plays 66.1 a game (313th fastest), WCU 69.3 (162nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CIT has played the 233rd-hardest schedule, WCU the 177th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WCUSmall

Home court

WCU at home. This season: WCU 0-0 at home, CIT 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CIT 30.0, WCU 31.3. Allowed: CIT 33.3, WCU 37.8

Even

Three-pointers

CIT hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; WCU hits 33.5% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 47.8% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CIT 49.5 and allows 57.5; WCU 50.5 and allows 54.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CIT 16.3%, WCU 16.7%. Forced: CIT 14.8%, WCU 14.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CIT 18%, WCU 16%. Transfers in: CIT 6, WCU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WCU -11.6	—
Total	—	148.2	—
Projected score	—	CIT 68.3 · WCU 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WCU -6.8	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	CIT 31.3 · WCU 38	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIT LLWWW	15-15	50%	7-8	—
WCU WWWWW	14-15	48%	7-4	—

Venue/role: CIT away; WCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIT OUOOO	15-15	50%	8-22
WCU UUOUU	15-14	52%	13-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIT	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
WCU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

The Citadel

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ GT	No recent meeting

W Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ UVA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CIT 4–6 WCUWCU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CIT 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 11, 2025-26	CIT 49 @ WCU 87	WCU -9.5	WCU W
Jan 10, 2025-26	WCU 77 @ CIT 79	CIT +6.5	CIT W
Feb 15, 2024-25	CIT 73 @ WCU 76	WCU -6.5	CIT W
Jan 25, 2024-25	WCU 80 @ CIT 78	CIT -1.5	WCU W
Feb 7, 2023-24	CIT 64 @ WCU 71	WCU -11.5	CIT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

The Citadel

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W L W L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L L L L L L W W W L L W L W W W W L W W L W L L W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U U O U O U U O O O U O O U U U U O U U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsPRES	L 41-69	+8.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 4	@DAV	L 63-79	+18.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 13	@SC	L 55-71	+22.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 17	@COFC	L 78-82	+17.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 160
Dec 20	@RICH	L 56-80	+18.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 30	vsETSU	L 49-74	+12.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsWOF	L 86-95	+9.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 181
Jan 7	@MER	L 63-101	+16.5	L −21.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsWCU	W 79-77	+6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 15	@UNCG	L 66-69	+9.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	@VMI	W 82-68	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsFUR	W 77-75	+11.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 23	@ETSU	L 55-84	+17.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 29	vsVMI	W 80-56	-2.5	W +21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNCG	W 71-66	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	@SAM	L 64-78	+13.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 142
Feb 7	@UTC	W 78-71	+9.5	W +16.5	142.5	O 149
Feb 11	@WCU	L 49-87	+9.5	L −28.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsMER	L 54-70	+11.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 124
Feb 19	vsSAM	L 75-78	+10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 21	vsUTC	L 72-93	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 25	@FUR	L 51-72	+15.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 123
Feb 28	@WOF	W 93-90	+11.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 183
Mar 6	vsUTC	W 88-85	+7.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsETSU	L 76-83	+14.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

PRES

L 41-69

−19.5

DAV

L 63-79

+2.5

L 55-71

+6.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−5.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−12.5

WOF

L 86-95

+0.5

MER

L 63-101

−21.5

WCU

W 79-77

+8.5

UNCG

L 66-69

+6.5

VMI

W 82-68

+20.5

FUR

W 77-75

+13.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−11.5

VMI

W 80-56

+21.5

UNCG

W 71-66

+7.5

SAM

L 64-78

−0.5

UTC

W 78-71

+16.5

WCU

L 49-87

−28.5

MER

L 54-70

−4.5

SAM

L 75-78

+7.5

UTC

L 72-93

−16.5

FUR

L 51-72

−5.5

WOF

W 93-90

+14.5

UTC

W 88-85

+10.5

ETSU

L 76-83

+7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

PRES

L 41-69

−23.5

DAV

L 63-79

+4.5

L 55-71

−15.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−10.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−17.5

WOF

L 86-95

+36.5

MER

L 63-101

+16.5

WCU

W 79-77

+7.5

UNCG

L 66-69

−13.5

VMI

W 82-68

+6.5

FUR

W 77-75

+9.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−2.5

VMI

W 80-56

−6.5

UNCG

W 71-66

−10.5

SAM

L 64-78

−4.5

UTC

W 78-71

+6.5

WCU

L 49-87

−9.5

MER

L 54-70

−23.5

SAM

L 75-78

+9.5

UTC

L 72-93

+20.5

FUR

L 51-72

−20.5

WOF

W 93-90

+34.5

UTC

W 88-85

+24.5

ETSU

L 76-83

+19.5

over 15under 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

W Carolina

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L L W W L L L L L L W L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

L L L W L L L L W L W L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W W

8 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

O U U O U O U O O U U O O U O O U O O O U U O O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CIN	L 63-94	+22.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 8	@DUKE	L 54-95	+36.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSTET	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsUNCA	W 80-73	+1.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 153
Nov 22	@LIP	L 62-83	+5.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 29	@HPU	L 73-93	+16.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 166
Dec 6	@UPST	L 67-78	+2.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 11	@VT	L 74-96	+20.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 18	@UGA	L 82-112	+32.5	W +2.5	167.5	O 194
Dec 31	vsWOF	L 74-79	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@FUR	W 80-77	+8.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 157
Jan 7	@SAM	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 10	@CIT	L 77-79	-6.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 14	vsETSU	W 72-68	+6.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 17	vsUTC	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 21	@MER	L 76-88	+8.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsVMI	W 88-58	-8.5	W +21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@ETSU	W 90-88	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 178
Feb 1	vsSAM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	154.5	O 162
Feb 4	@UNCG	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 159
Feb 7	@WOF	L 66-77	+3.5	L −7.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 11	vsCIT	W 87-49	-9.5	W +28.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 14	@UTC	W 81-76	+1.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Feb 18	vsUNCG	W 91-77	-5.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 21	@VMI	W 81-62	-8.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 25	vsMER	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 28	vsFUR	W 86-67	+1.5	W +20.5	147.5	O 153
Mar 7	vsMER	W 77-73	+1.5	W +5.5	154.5	U 150
Mar 8	vsETSU	L 67-69	+2.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

−8.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−4.5

STET

W 76-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+8.5

LIP

L 62-83

−15.5

HPU

L 73-93

−3.5

UPST

L 67-78

−8.5

L 74-96

−1.5

UGA

L 82-112

+2.5

WOF

L 74-79

−2.5

FUR

W 80-77

+11.5

SAM

L 77-82

−0.5

CIT

L 77-79

−8.5

ETSU

W 72-68

+10.5

UTC

L 82-90

−9.5

MER

L 76-88

−3.5

VMI

W 88-58

+21.5

ETSU

W 90-88

+11.5

SAM

L 74-88

−12.5

UNCG

L 78-81

−4.5

WOF

L 66-77

−7.5

CIT

W 87-49

+28.5

UTC

W 81-76

+6.5

UNCG

W 91-77

+8.5

VMI

W 81-62

+10.5

MER

W 78-74

+5.5

FUR

W 86-67

+20.5

MER

W 77-73

+5.5

ETSU

L 67-69

+0.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

+13.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−3.5

STET

W 76-65

−14.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+0.5

LIP

L 62-83

−6.5

HPU

L 73-93

+6.5

UPST

L 67-78

−4.5

L 74-96

+17.5

UGA

L 82-112

+26.5

WOF

L 74-79

−1.5

FUR

W 80-77

−0.5

SAM

L 77-82

+5.5

CIT

L 77-79

+7.5

ETSU

W 72-68

−7.5

UTC

L 82-90

+21.5

MER

L 76-88

+5.5

VMI

W 88-58

−6.5

ETSU

W 90-88

+32.5

SAM

L 74-88

+7.5

UNCG

L 78-81

+3.5

WOF

L 66-77

−11.5

CIT

W 87-49

−9.5

UTC

W 81-76

+5.5

UNCG

W 91-77

+12.5

VMI

W 81-62

−11.5

MER

W 78-74

−4.5

FUR

W 86-67

+5.5

MER

W 77-73

−4.5

ETSU

L 67-69

−9.5

over 15under 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

W Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: The Citadel 0, W Carolina 3, even 2

The CitadelBetterW Carolina

G E. Bronson TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 13

WCUBig

G M. Brown TR11.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48

G C. McKenzie TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G I. Manning TR9.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 64

G M. Gonzales3.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 17

WCUBig

G T. Bryson TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 70

G K. Davis4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 19

Even

G J. Prunty TR3.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20

F R. Bethea TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 32

WCUBig

F S. Dada6.2 pts · 7.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77

The CitadelBetterW Carolina

CIT offense343rd of 366 · -11.7

WCUSmall

WCU defense256th of 366 · -6.7

CIT defense314th of 366 · -8.1

WCUBig

WCU offense171st of 366 · -5.2

Backcourt-7.1 · 4 players

WCUBig

Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player

WCUSmall

Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player

Bench-2.7 · 5 players

WCUSmall

Bench-1.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCIT betterWCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

The Citadel

Guards

E. Bronson19 min · TRC. McKenzie16 min · TRM. Gonzales13 minK. Davis12 minC. Cormier9 min · TRJ. Heck2 min

Forwards

R. Bethea13 min · TRT. Mrus10 min · TRJ. Hurlburt9 min · TRC. Bonjasky6 minL. Menefee3 minA. Alexander1 min

Centers

Y. AnsongNew

W Carolina

Guards

M. Brown31 min · TRI. Manning20 min · TRT. Bryson18 min · TRJ. Prunty16 min · TRJ. Roberts8 min · TRD. Hollifield2 min

Forwards

S. Dada20 minT. Smith10 minD. Raymond6 min · TRF. SodipoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CIT68.3 #309

WCU76.3 #134

Points per possession

CIT1.03 #283

WCU1.10 #140

Pace (possessions)

CIT66.1 #313

WCU69.3 #162

Shooting

Effective FG%

CIT49.5 #265

WCU50.5 #218

3-point %

CIT32.0 #283

WCU33.5 #198

3-point attempt rate

CIT47.8 #26

WCU40.9 #147

Free throw rate

CIT30.0 #309

WCU31.3 #274

Possessions

Turnover rate

CIT16.3 #156

WCU16.7 #179

Offensive rebound rate

CIT27.9 #270

WCU35.4 #36

Assists per game

CIT12.2 #272

WCU12.0 #286

Defense

Points allowed

CIT78.9 #293

WCU79.0 #299

Points allowed per possession

CIT1.20 #357

WCU1.14 #307

Opponent effective FG%

CIT57.5 #361

WCU54.9 #327

Opponent 3-point %

CIT36.6 #335

WCU36.7 #337

Turnovers forced

CIT14.8 #306

WCU14.6 #318

Defensive rebound rate

CIT68.5 #227

WCU73.7 #22

Steals per game

CIT5.2 #318

WCU5.8 #266

Blocks per game

CIT2.5 #304

WCU2.4 #315

CIT		WCU
Scoring
68.3 #309	Points per game	76.3 #134
1.03 #283	Points per possession	1.10 #140
66.1 #313	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #162
Shooting
49.5 #265	Effective FG%	50.5 #218
32.0 #283	3-point %	33.5 #198
47.8 #26	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #147
30.0 #309	Free throw rate	31.3 #274
Possessions
16.3 #156	Turnover rate	16.7 #179
27.9 #270	Offensive rebound rate	35.4 #36
12.2 #272	Assists per game	12.0 #286
Defense
78.9 #293	Points allowed	79.0 #299
1.20 #357	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #307
57.5 #361	Opponent effective FG%	54.9 #327
36.6 #335	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #337
14.8 #306	Turnovers forced	14.6 #318
68.5 #227	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #22
5.2 #318	Steals per game	5.8 #266
2.5 #304	Blocks per game	2.4 #315

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

The Citadel

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs ETSU76–83
Wvs Chattanooga88–85
W@ Wofford93–90
L@ Furman51–72
Lvs Chattanooga72–93

A week or more of rest.

W Carolina

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs ETSU67–69
Wvs Mercer77–73
Wvs Furman86–67
Wvs Mercer78–74
W@ VMI81–62

A week or more of rest.

The Citadel Bulldogs at Western Carolina Catamounts

What could decide it: WCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

The Citadel

W Carolina

W Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

The Citadel

W Carolina