The Citadel Bulldogs at Samford Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 5, 8:00 PM ETPete Hanna Center · at Samford · Conference game

Final

#184SAMSamford78▲ winner

Closing lineSAM -13.5✓ SAM covered by 0.5

Closing total146.5Under by 4.5

Season records: The Citadel and Samford
CIT	This season	SAM
5-15	Record	9-12
10-10	ATS	11-10
9-11	O/U	13-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CIT 68–80 SAM · ✓ SAM (85%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CIT	32	32	64
SAM	39	39	78

1st half: CIT 32, SAM 39 (SAM by 7). The model had SAM by 7.0 and a total of 69.6 (actual 71).

Team stats

CIT		SAM
26-61 43%	Field goals	25-49 51%
5-21 24%	3-pointers	10-22 45%
7-15 47%	Free throws	18-26 69%
34 13 off	Rebounds	33 8 off
10	Assists	15
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	10
20	Fouls	14
30	Points in paint	28
3	Fast-break points	8

Players

CIT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carter Kingsbury G	33	13	3	1	6-11	0-1
Sola Adebisi F	31	4	4	1	2-2	0-0
Eze Wali G	27	6	9	3	2-7	1-2
Braxton Williams F	27	8	1	0	4-10	0-2
Christian Moore F	21	8	1	0	4-8	0-1
Bench
Logan Applegate G	23	14	2	1	4-13	3-12
Marcos Gonzales G	17	5	2	1	2-6	0-2
Keynan Davis G	9	6	0	2	2-2	1-1
Simeon German F	7	0	6	0	0-2	0-0
Dante Kearse G	5	0	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Chase Williams, Cassius Bonjasky, Gabe Hernandez, Logan Menefee, Jameson Heck, Aidan Alexander, Jack Walter, Rowan Irelan

SAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadin Booth G	36	15	4	2	5-9	3-4
Keaton Norris G	36	13	6	8	5-9	2-5
Dylan Faulkner F	30	14	11	1	4-10	0-0
Isaiah Campbell-Finch G	29	11	3	1	4-7	1-3
Cade Norris G	29	7	2	2	2-3	1-2
Bench
Kam Martin G	23	14	2	0	4-8	3-6
Will Shaver C	9	4	1	1	1-1	0-0
Zion Wilburn G	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: DaJion Humphrey, Cooper Davenport, JD Gossett, Judson Bjornstad, Caleb Harrison, Corey Brown, Jaxon Pollard, Zach Lamey, Joshua Hughes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SAM -13.5	SAM -11.9	CIT +1.6	L SAM covered
Total	146.5	148.7	Over 2.2	L Under
Projected score	—	CIT 68.4 · SAM 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SAM -7.0	SAM -7.0
1H total	69.6	71
1H projected score	CIT 31.3 · SAM 38.3	CIT 32 · SAM 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIT WWLWW	10-10	50%	5-5	9-10
SAM WLWWW	11-10	52%	4-3	8-3

Venue/role: CIT away, as underdog; SAM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIT OOUUU	9-11	45%	5-15
SAM OOUOO	13-8	62%	9-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIT	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
SAM	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

CIT 1–7 SAMSAM leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · SAM has won the last 7 meetings · CIT 4-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2024-25	SAM 83 @ CIT 58	CIT +16.5	SAM W
Jan 1, 2024-25	CIT 56 @ SAM 86	SAM -20.5	SAM W
Mar 2, 2023-24	CIT 80 @ SAM 92	SAM -13.5	CIT W
Jan 6, 2023-24	SAM 80 @ CIT 64	CIT +8.5	SAM W
Feb 11, 2022-23	CIT 70 @ SAM 76	SAM -14.5	CIT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

The Citadel

20 games played

Straight up

5-15

25% wins

Against the spread

10-10

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-11

45% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-1525%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1050%

L L L L L L W W W L L W L W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-1145%

U O O U U U O U O U U O O O U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsPRES	L 41-69	+8.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 4	@DAV	L 63-79	+18.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 13	@SC	L 55-71	+22.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 17	@COFC	L 78-82	+17.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 160
Dec 20	@RICH	L 56-80	+18.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 30	vsETSU	L 49-74	+12.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsWOF	L 86-95	+9.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 181
Jan 7	@MER	L 63-101	+16.5	L −21.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsWCU	W 79-77	+6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 15	@UNCG	L 66-69	+9.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	@VMI	W 82-68	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsFUR	W 77-75	+11.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 23	@ETSU	L 55-84	+17.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 29	vsVMI	W 80-56	-2.5	W +21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNCG	W 71-66	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

PRES

L 41-69

−19.5

DAV

L 63-79

+2.5

L 55-71

+6.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−5.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−12.5

WOF

L 86-95

+0.5

MER

L 63-101

−21.5

WCU

W 79-77

+8.5

UNCG

L 66-69

+6.5

VMI

W 82-68

+20.5

FUR

W 77-75

+13.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−11.5

VMI

W 80-56

+21.5

UNCG

W 71-66

+7.5

covered 10didn’t cover 10avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

PRES

L 41-69

−23.5

DAV

L 63-79

+4.5

L 55-71

−15.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−10.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−17.5

WOF

L 86-95

+36.5

MER

L 63-101

+16.5

WCU

W 79-77

+7.5

UNCG

L 66-69

−13.5

VMI

W 82-68

+6.5

FUR

W 77-75

+9.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−2.5

VMI

W 80-56

−6.5

UNCG

W 71-66

−10.5

over 9under 11avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Samford

21 games played

Straight up

9-12

43% wins

Against the spread

11-10

52% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-8

62% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-1243%

L W W L W L L W L L W W L W L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-1052%

L L W W W L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-862%

O U O U O U O U U U O U O O O O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TULN	L 72-85	+7.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsSCST	W 82-72	-14.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 12	@TXSO	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 14	@ARK	L 75-79	+24.5	W +20.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 16	@CARK	W 84-77	-6.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 19	vsFGCU	L 62-77	-5.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 21	@NMSU	L 72-81	+8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsGAST	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsUVU	L 45-89	+7.5	L −36.5	148.5	U 134
Dec 5	@VCU	L 57-83	+19.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 7	vsCOR	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	166.5	O 183
Jan 1	@VMI	W 78-58	-6.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	@UNCG	L 82-89	-2.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsWCU	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 10	@UTC	L 79-88	+1.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsFUR	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 17	vsETSU	L 75-76	+3.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 21	@WOF	L 78-88	+3.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsUTC	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 29	@FUR	L 73-78	+5.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 1	@WCU	W 88-74	-1.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

−5.5

SCST

W 82-72

−4.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+0.5

ARK

L 75-79

+20.5

CARK

W 84-77

+0.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−20.5

NMSU

L 72-81

−0.5

GAST

W 78-63

+9.5

UVU

L 45-89

−36.5

VCU

L 57-83

−6.5

COR

W 93-90

+0.5

VMI

W 78-58

+13.5

UNCG

L 82-89

−9.5

WCU

W 82-77

+0.5

UTC

L 79-88

−7.5

FUR

L 73-77

−2.5

ETSU

L 75-76

+2.5

WOF

L 78-88

−6.5

UTC

W 75-64

+6.5

FUR

L 73-78

+0.5

WCU

W 88-74

+12.5

covered 11didn’t cover 10avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

+2.5

SCST

W 82-72

−0.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+29.5

ARK

L 75-79

−4.5

CARK

W 84-77

+9.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−15.5

NMSU

L 72-81

+7.5

GAST

W 78-63

−5.5

UVU

L 45-89

−14.5

VCU

L 57-83

−14.5

COR

W 93-90

+16.5

VMI

W 78-58

−18.5

UNCG

L 82-89

+19.5

WCU

W 82-77

+5.5

UTC

L 79-88

+18.5

FUR

L 73-77

+0.5

ETSU

L 75-76

+2.5

WOF

L 78-88

+11.5

UTC

W 75-64

−13.5

FUR

L 73-78

+1.5

WCU

W 88-74

+7.5

over 13under 8avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The Citadel Bulldogs at Samford Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

The Citadel

Samford

The Citadel

Samford