East Tennessee State Buccaneers at VMI Keydets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETCameron Hall · at VMI · Conference game

#173ETSUETSU

#320VMIVMI

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: ETSU and VMI
ETSU	This season	VMI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ETSU 77–70 · win probability ETSU 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

ETSU 6, VMI 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ETSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0; VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0

ETSUBig

Three-pointers

ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%; VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 37.8% and 53.6% of their shots

ETSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ETSU 28.3%, VMI 25.6%. Defensive: ETSU 72.1%, VMI 62.8%

ETSUBig

VMI offense vs ETSU defense

Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings

ETSUBig

ETSU offense vs VMI defense

Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings

ETSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ETSU 15.2%, VMI 15.3%. Forced: ETSU 18.4%, VMI 15.7%

Context

Schedule so far

ETSU has played the 309th-hardest schedule, VMI the 253rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

VMISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ETSU 29%, VMI 59%. Transfers in: ETSU 5, VMI 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

VMISmall

Home court

VMI at home. This season: VMI 0-0 at home, ETSU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ETSU 35.0, VMI 30.6. Allowed: ETSU 36.4, VMI 34.6

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ETSU plays 67.0 a game (279th fastest), VMI 67.6 (251st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ETSU -6.8	—
Total	—	146.6	—
Projected score	—	ETSU 76.7 · VMI 69.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ETSU -4.2	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	ETSU 36.4 · VMI 32.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ETSU LLLLL	14-18	44%	6-8	—
VMI WLLWL	9-20	31%	2-9	—

Venue/role: ETSU away; VMI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ETSU UOOUU	17-15	53%	21-11
VMI UUUOU	13-16	45%	3-26

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ETSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
VMI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

ETSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs PRES	L64–68LU
Dec 12	@ JXST	L75–81LO
Dec 15	vs NKU	W75–63WU

VMI

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

ETSU 10–1 VMIETSU leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · ETSU has won the last 9 meetings · ETSU 4-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	ETSU 87 @ VMI 70	VMI +14.5	ETSU W
Jan 7, 2025-26	VMI 67 @ ETSU 81	ETSU -16.5	VMI W
Feb 5, 2024-25	ETSU 62 @ VMI 55	VMI +6.5	ETSU W
Jan 1, 2024-25	VMI 69 @ ETSU 84	ETSU -15.5	VMI W
Mar 8, 2023-24	VMI 66 vs ETSU 98	ETSU -17.5	ETSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

ETSU

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

L W W W W W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W W W W W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U O U O U O O O U O U U O U U O U U O O O O U O O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@PRES	L 64-68	-6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 12	vsNKU	W 75-63	-6.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@UNA	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsMORE	W 77-62	-10.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 139
Nov 23	vsULM	W 97-55	-19.5	W +22.5	146.5	O 152
Nov 29	vsCARK	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 2	@DAY	L 71-88	+11.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsUSA	W 91-65	-7.5	W +18.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 12	@APSU	L 75-76	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 16	@UNC	L 58-77	+17.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsJXST	L 75-81	-9.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 30	@CIT	W 74-49	-12.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsMER	W 77-71	-7.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 7	vsVMI	W 81-67	-16.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsUNCG	W 86-60	-11.5	W +14.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 14	@WCU	L 68-72	-6.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 17	@SAM	W 76-75	-3.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 21	@UTC	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 133
Jan 23	vsCIT	W 84-55	-17.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 29	vsWCU	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 178
Feb 1	@WOF	W 86-72	-1.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 158
Feb 4	vsFUR	W 75-71	-5.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 146
Feb 7	@VMI	W 87-70	-14.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	vsUTC	W 73-61	-10.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 14	vsSAM	L 72-82	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 18	@FUR	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@UNCG	W 87-75	-6.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 25	vsWOF	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 28	@MER	L 76-82	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsCIT	W 83-76	-14.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsWCU	W 69-67	-2.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 9	vsFUR	L 61-76	-1.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−10.5

NKU

W 75-63

+5.5

UNA

W 78-74

+5.5

W 77-62

+4.5

ULM

W 97-55

+22.5

CARK

W 80-57

+10.5

DAY

L 71-88

−5.5

USA

W 91-65

+18.5

APSU

L 75-76

−4.5

UNC

L 58-77

−1.5

JXST

L 75-81

−15.5

CIT

W 74-49

+12.5

MER

W 77-71

−1.5

VMI

W 81-67

−2.5

UNCG

W 86-60

+14.5

WCU

L 68-72

−10.5

SAM

W 76-75

−2.5

UTC

W 67-66

−3.5

CIT

W 84-55

+11.5

WCU

L 88-90

−11.5

WOF

W 86-72

+12.5

FUR

W 75-71

−1.5

VMI

W 87-70

+2.5

UTC

W 73-61

+1.5

SAM

L 72-82

−17.5

FUR

W 78-69

+10.5

UNCG

W 87-75

+5.5

WOF

L 69-72

−9.5

MER

L 76-82

−4.5

CIT

W 83-76

−7.5

WCU

W 69-67

−0.5

FUR

L 61-76

−16.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−9.5

NKU

W 75-63

−4.5

UNA

W 78-74

+6.5

W 77-62

−5.5

ULM

W 97-55

+5.5

CARK

W 80-57

−7.5

DAY

L 71-88

+18.5

USA

W 91-65

+12.5

APSU

L 75-76

+7.5

UNC

L 58-77

−15.5

JXST

L 75-81

+21.5

CIT

W 74-49

−17.5

MER

W 77-71

−0.5

VMI

W 81-67

+1.5

UNCG

W 86-60

−2.5

WCU

L 68-72

−7.5

SAM

W 76-75

+2.5

UTC

W 67-66

−10.5

CIT

W 84-55

−2.5

WCU

L 88-90

+32.5

WOF

W 86-72

+11.5

FUR

W 75-71

+4.5

VMI

W 87-70

+13.5

UTC

W 73-61

−11.5

SAM

L 72-82

+8.5

FUR

W 78-69

+6.5

UNCG

W 87-75

+13.5

WOF

L 69-72

−8.5

MER

L 76-82

+8.5

CIT

W 83-76

+19.5

WCU

W 69-67

−9.5

FUR

L 61-76

−2.5

over 17under 15avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

VMI

29 games played

Straight up

3-26

10% wins

Against the spread

9-20

31% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2610%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

17 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-2031%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1645%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsMER	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsCIT	L 68-82	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNCG	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 24	@WCU	L 58-88	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@CIT	L 56-80	+2.5	L −21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	@MER	L 81-95	+18.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsWOF	L 67-81	+8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsETSU	L 70-87	+14.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	@UNCG	L 71-92	+8.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsFUR	L 72-90	+11.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	@WOF	L 76-82	+13.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsWCU	L 62-81	+8.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 26	@SAM	L 61-80	+17.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	@UTC	L 79-86	+11.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsUNCG	L 70-84	+7.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

MER

L 67-77

−1.5

CIT

L 68-82

−20.5

UNCG

L 78-85

−4.5

WCU

L 58-88

−21.5

CIT

L 56-80

−21.5

MER

L 81-95

+4.5

WOF

L 67-81

−5.5

ETSU

L 70-87

−2.5

UNCG

L 71-92

−12.5

FUR

L 72-90

−6.5

WOF

L 76-82

+7.5

WCU

L 62-81

−10.5

SAM

L 61-80

−1.5

UTC

L 79-86

+4.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 20avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

MER

L 67-77

−9.5

CIT

L 68-82

+6.5

UNCG

L 78-85

+11.5

WCU

L 58-88

−6.5

CIT

L 56-80

−6.5

MER

L 81-95

+22.5

WOF

L 67-81

−1.5

ETSU

L 70-87

+13.5

UNCG

L 71-92

+12.5

FUR

L 72-90

+13.5

WOF

L 76-82

−0.5

WCU

L 62-81

−11.5

SAM

L 61-80

−14.5

UTC

L 79-86

+10.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−0.5

over 13under 16avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: ETSU 1, VMI 1, even 3

ETSUBetterVMI

G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29

Even

G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34

Even

G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24

VMIBig

F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75

G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

ETSUSmall

F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2

F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49

No call

F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

ETSUBetterVMI

ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9

ETSUSmall

VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1

ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9

ETSUBig

VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players

VMIBig

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

ETSUSmall

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestETSU betterVMI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

ETSU

Guards

B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew

Forwards

J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew

VMI

Guards

A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew

Forwards

T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ETSU76.8 #121

VMI68.5 #306

Points per possession

ETSU1.15 #59

VMI1.01 #311

Pace (possessions)

ETSU67.0 #279

VMI67.6 #251

Shooting

Effective FG%

ETSU55.3 #33

VMI47.5 #325

3-point %

ETSU34.7 #132

VMI31.5 #306

3-point attempt rate

ETSU37.8 #216

VMI53.6 #2

Free throw rate

ETSU35.0 #180

VMI30.6 #293

Possessions

Turnover rate

ETSU15.2 #79

VMI15.3 #88

Offensive rebound rate

ETSU28.3 #252

VMI25.6 #330

Assists per game

ETSU13.9 #154

VMI11.6 #309

Defense

Points allowed

ETSU70.1 #61

VMI83.2 #348

Points allowed per possession

ETSU1.04 #77

VMI1.23 #362

Opponent effective FG%

ETSU51.0 #161

VMI57.0 #357

Opponent 3-point %

ETSU32.9 #110

VMI36.5 #327

Turnovers forced

ETSU18.4 #79

VMI15.7 #239

Defensive rebound rate

ETSU72.1 #64

VMI62.8 #360

Steals per game

ETSU8.6 #16

VMI6.6 #160

Blocks per game

ETSU3.3 #180

VMI2.0 #343

ETSU		VMI
Scoring
76.8 #121	Points per game	68.5 #306
1.15 #59	Points per possession	1.01 #311
67.0 #279	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #251
Shooting
55.3 #33	Effective FG%	47.5 #325
34.7 #132	3-point %	31.5 #306
37.8 #216	3-point attempt rate	53.6 #2
35.0 #180	Free throw rate	30.6 #293
Possessions
15.2 #79	Turnover rate	15.3 #88
28.3 #252	Offensive rebound rate	25.6 #330
13.9 #154	Assists per game	11.6 #309
Defense
70.1 #61	Points allowed	83.2 #348
1.04 #77	Points allowed per possession	1.23 #362
51.0 #161	Opponent effective FG%	57.0 #357
32.9 #110	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #327
18.4 #79	Turnovers forced	15.7 #239
72.1 #64	Defensive rebound rate	62.8 #360
8.6 #16	Steals per game	6.6 #160
3.3 #180	Blocks per game	2.0 #343

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman61–76
Wvs W Carolina69–67
Wvs The Citadel83–76
L@ Mercer76–82
Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
L@ Chattanooga79–86
L@ Samford61–80
Lvs W Carolina62–81
L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at VMI Keydets

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

ETSU

VMI

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

ETSU

VMI