Presbyterian Blue Hose at East Tennessee State Buccaneers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 12:00 AM ETFreedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU

#173ETSUETSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Presbyterian and ETSU
PRES	This season	ETSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ETSU 73–69 · win probability ETSU 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

PRES 3, ETSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ETSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRES 19.4%, ETSU 15.2%. Forced: PRES 15.7%, ETSU 18.4%

ETSUBig

Three-pointers

PRES hits 31.6% and allows 34.7%; ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 28.0% and 37.8% of their shots

PRESSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRES 86%, ETSU 29%. Transfers in: PRES 0, ETSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ETSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRES 51.0 and allows 51.2; ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0

ETSUSmall

PRES offense vs ETSU defense

Offense 222nd of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings

PRESSmall

ETSU offense vs PRES defense

Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 160th, on the model’s ratings

ETSUSmall

Home court

ETSU at home. This season: ETSU 0-0 at home, PRES 0-0 away

PRESSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRES 39.4, ETSU 35.0. Allowed: PRES 37.1, ETSU 36.4

Context

Schedule so far

PRES has played the 272nd-hardest schedule, ETSU the 309th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRES 33.1%, ETSU 28.3%. Defensive: PRES 69.3%, ETSU 72.1%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: PRES plays 66.9 a game (283rd fastest), ETSU 67.0 (279th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ETSU -4.2	—
Total	—	141.3	—
Projected score	—	PRES 68.5 · ETSU 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ETSU -2.4	—
1H total	66.1	—
1H projected score	PRES 31.9 · ETSU 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRES LWWWW	17-13	57%	7-9	—
ETSU LLLLL	14-18	44%	8-7	—

Venue/role: PRES away; ETSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRES OOUOU	16-14	53%	12-18
ETSU UOOUU	17-15	53%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRES	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ETSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Presbyterian

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SAM	No recent meeting

ETSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ JXST	L75–81LO
Dec 15	vs NKU	W75–63WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PRES 1–0 ETSUPRES leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PRES 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	ETSU 64 @ PRES 68	PRES +6.5	PRES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Presbyterian

30 games played

Straight up

12-18

40% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1840%

L W W L L L L W L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W L W W L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O O O U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@CAL	L 57-67	+10.5	W +0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	@UCLA	L 46-86	+25.5	L −14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 30	vsCIT	W 69-41	-8.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 3	@WOF	L 56-63	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 119
Dec 6	vsMORE	W 80-72	-7.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 17	@ECU	L 53-74	+4.5	L −16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 21	@MAN	L 81-87	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 168
Jan 3	vsUPST	W 86-77	-1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 7	@RAD	L 61-80	+6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 10	@LONG	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 14	vsUNCA	W 71-70	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 141
Jan 17	@GWEB	W 92-55	-8.5	W +28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	vsCHSO	W 87-83	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsWIN	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 29	@HPU	L 81-84	+14.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsRAD	L 84-93	-1.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsGWEB	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	@CHSO	L 67-84	+1.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 151
Feb 14	@UNCA	W 58-57	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 19	vsLONG	W 72-65	-2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@UPST	L 74-76	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	vsHPU	L 73-79	+12.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 152
Feb 28	@WIN	L 70-74	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsRAD	W 91-85	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 176
Mar 7	vsWIN	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

CAL

L 57-67

+0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-41

+19.5

WOF

L 56-63

−2.5

W 80-72

+0.5

ECU

L 53-74

−16.5

MAN

L 81-87

−8.5

UPST

W 86-77

+7.5

RAD

L 61-80

−12.5

LONG

L 70-77

−3.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+3.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+28.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+5.5

WIN

L 72-82

−4.5

HPU

L 81-84

+11.5

RAD

L 84-93

−10.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−11.5

CHSO

L 67-84

−15.5

UNCA

W 58-57

+6.5

LONG

W 72-65

+4.5

UPST

L 74-76

−3.5

HPU

L 73-79

+6.5

WIN

L 70-74

+3.5

RAD

W 91-85

+8.5

WIN

L 71-73

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

CAL

L 57-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

+0.5

CIT

W 69-41

−23.5

WOF

L 56-63

−19.5

W 80-72

+17.5

ECU

L 53-74

−4.5

MAN

L 81-87

+29.5

UPST

W 86-77

+25.5

RAD

L 61-80

−6.5

LONG

L 70-77

+7.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+2.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+1.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+22.5

WIN

L 72-82

+7.5

HPU

L 81-84

+15.5

RAD

L 84-93

+25.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−15.5

CHSO

L 67-84

+4.5

UNCA

W 58-57

−22.5

LONG

W 72-65

−2.5

UPST

L 74-76

+8.5

HPU

L 73-79

+0.5

WIN

L 70-74

−6.5

RAD

W 91-85

+29.5

WIN

L 71-73

−1.5

over 16under 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

ETSU

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

L W W W W W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L W W W W L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W W W W W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U O U O U O O O U O U U O U U O U U O O O O U O O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@PRES	L 64-68	-6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 12	vsNKU	W 75-63	-6.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@UNA	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsMORE	W 77-62	-10.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 139
Nov 23	vsULM	W 97-55	-19.5	W +22.5	146.5	O 152
Nov 29	vsCARK	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 2	@DAY	L 71-88	+11.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsUSA	W 91-65	-7.5	W +18.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 12	@APSU	L 75-76	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 16	@UNC	L 58-77	+17.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsJXST	L 75-81	-9.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 30	@CIT	W 74-49	-12.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsMER	W 77-71	-7.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 7	vsVMI	W 81-67	-16.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsUNCG	W 86-60	-11.5	W +14.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 14	@WCU	L 68-72	-6.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 17	@SAM	W 76-75	-3.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 21	@UTC	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 133
Jan 23	vsCIT	W 84-55	-17.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 29	vsWCU	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 178
Feb 1	@WOF	W 86-72	-1.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 158
Feb 4	vsFUR	W 75-71	-5.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 146
Feb 7	@VMI	W 87-70	-14.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	vsUTC	W 73-61	-10.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 14	vsSAM	L 72-82	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 18	@FUR	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@UNCG	W 87-75	-6.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 25	vsWOF	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 28	@MER	L 76-82	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsCIT	W 83-76	-14.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsWCU	W 69-67	-2.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 9	vsFUR	L 61-76	-1.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−10.5

NKU

W 75-63

+5.5

UNA

W 78-74

+5.5

W 77-62

+4.5

ULM

W 97-55

+22.5

CARK

W 80-57

+10.5

DAY

L 71-88

−5.5

USA

W 91-65

+18.5

APSU

L 75-76

−4.5

UNC

L 58-77

−1.5

JXST

L 75-81

−15.5

CIT

W 74-49

+12.5

MER

W 77-71

−1.5

VMI

W 81-67

−2.5

UNCG

W 86-60

+14.5

WCU

L 68-72

−10.5

SAM

W 76-75

−2.5

UTC

W 67-66

−3.5

CIT

W 84-55

+11.5

WCU

L 88-90

−11.5

WOF

W 86-72

+12.5

FUR

W 75-71

−1.5

VMI

W 87-70

+2.5

UTC

W 73-61

+1.5

SAM

L 72-82

−17.5

FUR

W 78-69

+10.5

UNCG

W 87-75

+5.5

WOF

L 69-72

−9.5

MER

L 76-82

−4.5

CIT

W 83-76

−7.5

WCU

W 69-67

−0.5

FUR

L 61-76

−16.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−9.5

NKU

W 75-63

−4.5

UNA

W 78-74

+6.5

W 77-62

−5.5

ULM

W 97-55

+5.5

CARK

W 80-57

−7.5

DAY

L 71-88

+18.5

USA

W 91-65

+12.5

APSU

L 75-76

+7.5

UNC

L 58-77

−15.5

JXST

L 75-81

+21.5

CIT

W 74-49

−17.5

MER

W 77-71

−0.5

VMI

W 81-67

+1.5

UNCG

W 86-60

−2.5

WCU

L 68-72

−7.5

SAM

W 76-75

+2.5

UTC

W 67-66

−10.5

CIT

W 84-55

−2.5

WCU

L 88-90

+32.5

WOF

W 86-72

+11.5

FUR

W 75-71

+4.5

VMI

W 87-70

+13.5

UTC

W 73-61

−11.5

SAM

L 72-82

+8.5

FUR

W 78-69

+6.5

UNCG

W 87-75

+13.5

WOF

L 69-72

−8.5

MER

L 76-82

+8.5

CIT

W 83-76

+19.5

WCU

W 69-67

−9.5

FUR

L 61-76

−2.5

over 17under 15avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Presbyterian has the better starters

Position by position: Presbyterian 3, ETSU 1, even 1

PresbyterianBetterETSU

G C. Parrish14.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 56

PRESSmall

G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29

G T. Wilson11.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 52

PRESSmall

G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34

G E. Taylor5.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24

G I. King3.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 2

ETSUSmall

G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

F J. Peterson11 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

PRESSmall

F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49

PresbyterianBetterETSU

PRES offense222nd of 366 · -6.8

ETSUSmall

ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9

PRES defense160th of 366 · -3.5

PRESSmall

ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9

Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players

PRESBig

Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player

PRESSmall

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPRES betterETSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Presbyterian

Guards

C. Parrish35 minT. Wilson32 minE. Taylor21 minI. King19 minK. Hudson11 minJ. Bowden8 min

Forwards

J. Peterson30 minC. Chiakwelu11 minA. AyelyineNewL. HackworthNew

ETSU

Guards

B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew

Forwards

J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRES70.0 #286

ETSU76.8 #121

Points per possession

PRES1.05 #249

ETSU1.15 #59

Pace (possessions)

PRES66.9 #283

ETSU67.0 #279

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRES51.0 #196

ETSU55.3 #33

3-point %

PRES31.6 #302

ETSU34.7 #132

3-point attempt rate

PRES28.0 #360

ETSU37.8 #216

Free throw rate

PRES39.4 #71

ETSU35.0 #180

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRES19.4 #335

ETSU15.2 #79

Offensive rebound rate

PRES33.1 #86

ETSU28.3 #252

Assists per game

PRES12.4 #260

ETSU13.9 #154

Defense

Points allowed

PRES73.1 #133

ETSU70.1 #61

Points allowed per possession

PRES1.09 #192

ETSU1.04 #77

Opponent effective FG%

PRES51.2 #170

ETSU51.0 #161

Opponent 3-point %

PRES34.7 #235

ETSU32.9 #110

Turnovers forced

PRES15.7 #237

ETSU18.4 #79

Defensive rebound rate

PRES69.3 #188

ETSU72.1 #64

Steals per game

PRES5.5 #303

ETSU8.6 #16

Blocks per game

PRES4.5 #35

ETSU3.3 #180

PRES		ETSU
Scoring
70.0 #286	Points per game	76.8 #121
1.05 #249	Points per possession	1.15 #59
66.9 #283	Pace (possessions)	67.0 #279
Shooting
51.0 #196	Effective FG%	55.3 #33
31.6 #302	3-point %	34.7 #132
28.0 #360	3-point attempt rate	37.8 #216
39.4 #71	Free throw rate	35.0 #180
Possessions
19.4 #335	Turnover rate	15.2 #79
33.1 #86	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #252
12.4 #260	Assists per game	13.9 #154
Defense
73.1 #133	Points allowed	70.1 #61
1.09 #192	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #77
51.2 #170	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #161
34.7 #235	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #110
15.7 #237	Turnovers forced	18.4 #79
69.3 #188	Defensive rebound rate	72.1 #64
5.5 #303	Steals per game	8.6 #16
4.5 #35	Blocks per game	3.3 #180

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Presbyterian

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-10 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Winthrop71–73
Wvs Radford91–85
L@ Winthrop70–74
Lvs High Point73–79
L@ SC Upstate74–76

A week or more of rest.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman61–76
Wvs W Carolina69–67
Wvs The Citadel83–76
L@ Mercer76–82
Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at East Tennessee State Buccaneers

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Presbyterian

ETSU

Presbyterian has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Presbyterian

ETSU