Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at UTEP Miners: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 4:00 PM ETDon Haskins Center · at UTEP · Conference game

#129WKUWestern KY68▲ winner

Final

#190UTEPUTEP56final

Closing lineWKU -3.5✓ WKU covered by 8.5

Closing total144.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Western KY and UTEP
WKU	This season	UTEP
7-6	Record	2-10
7-6	ATS	4-8
7-6	O/U	6-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WKU 76–73 UTEP · ✓ WKU (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WKU	31	37	68
UTEP	35	21	56

1st half: WKU 31, UTEP 35 (UTEP by 4). The model had WKU by 1.8 and a total of 69.7 (actual 66).

Team stats

WKU		UTEP
25-64 39%	Field goals	17-53 32%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	5-22 23%
13-22 59%	Free throws	17-22 77%
44 17 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
11	Assists	9
13	Steals	6
4	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	15
15	Fouls	17
34	Points in paint	18
11	Fast-break points	6

Players

WKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Armelo Boone G	36	9	14	2	3-15	1-5
Ryan Myers G	24	7	2	2	2-9	1-6
Terrion Murdix G	23	8	4	2	4-10	0-0
Noah Boyde C	21	7	7	0	3-4	0-0
Cam Haffner G	8	0	0	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Teagan Moore G	25	19	7	2	7-8	2-2
Grant Newell F	24	6	4	2	2-7	1-3
LJ Hackman G	21	8	1	1	3-5	0-1
Blaise Keita F	16	4	3	0	1-3	0-0
Jack Edelen G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bryant Selebangue, Kade Unseld, Cade Stinnett, Louie Semona III, Lawson Rice, Leeroy Odiahi

UTEP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kaseem Watson F	36	7	8	0	3-12	1-7
Jamal West Jr. F	36	15	6	2	5-11	0-0
KJ Thomas G	30	7	4	6	1-2	1-2
Elijah Jones F	28	9	4	1	2-10	1-4
Cassius Brooks G	17	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Bench
LA Hayes G	24	13	7	0	4-10	1-3
Caleb Blackwell G	19	2	3	0	1-4	0-3
Bobby Montgomery Jr. G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
C.J. Smith F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Mouhamed Mbaye C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trey Horton III, Jordan Hernandez, David Tubek, Tyreese Watson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WKU -3.5	WKU -2.7	UTEP +0.8	L WKU covered
Total	144.5	148.7	Over 4.2	L Under
Projected score	—	WKU 75.7 · UTEP 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WKU -1.8	UTEP -4.0
1H total	69.7	66
1H projected score	WKU 35.7 · UTEP 33.9	WKU 31 · UTEP 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WLWLL	7-6	54%	1-3	3-4
UTEP WLLLW	4-8	33%	2-2	4-6

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OOOUU	7-6	54%	7-6
UTEP OOOUO	6-6	50%	2-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UTEP	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

WKU 7–1 UTEPWKU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · WKU has won the last 4 meetings · WKU 7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 27, 2024-25	WKU 80 @ UTEP 73	UTEP -5.5	WKU W
Jan 30, 2024-25	UTEP 74 @ WKU 78	WKU -2.5	WKU W
Mar 16, 2023-24	UTEP 71 vs WKU 78	WKU -1.5	WKU W
Feb 15, 2023-24	UTEP 80 @ WKU 90	WKU -6.5	WKU W
Jan 20, 2023-24	WKU 87 @ UTEP 93	UTEP -1.5	UTEP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Western KY

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

W W W L L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-654%

L W W W W W L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

U O O U O U O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTNTC	W 82-70	-14.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 10	@EKU	W 87-79	-1.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 16	vsTNST	W 95-82	-12.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsVAN	L 78-83	+18.5	W +13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsUSF	L 91-97	+7.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsWICH	W 75-70	+4.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	vsEVAN	W 80-79	-11.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 10	@MRSH	L 61-77	+1.5	L −14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsTLSA	L 81-82	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 29	@JXST	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	vsSHSU	W 102-91	-5.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	vsLT	W 66-61	-9.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	@NMSU	L 64-80	+2.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−2.5

EKU

W 87-79

+6.5

TNST

W 95-82

+0.5

VAN

L 78-83

+13.5

USF

L 91-97

+1.5

WICH

W 75-70

+9.5

EVAN

W 80-79

−10.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−14.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+1.5

JXST

L 67-78

−13.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+5.5

W 66-61

−4.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−13.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−1.5

EKU

W 87-79

+3.5

TNST

W 95-82

+9.5

VAN

L 78-83

−7.5

USF

L 91-97

+20.5

WICH

W 75-70

−10.5

EVAN

W 80-79

+11.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−21.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+4.5

JXST

L 67-78

+2.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+24.5

W 66-61

−18.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−10.5

over 7under 6avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UTEP

12 games played

Straight up

2-10

17% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1017%

L L L L L L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-833%

L L L L W W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-650%

U U U U O U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsLMU	L 58-71	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 15	@USU	L 51-75	+16.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsW&M	L 63-74	+2.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsUAB	L 59-75	+8.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 7	@SEA	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 13	@HAW	L 61-66	+12.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 21	vsNORF	L 71-72	-10.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsNDSU	W 76-66	+2.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 29	@LT	L 63-75	+2.5	L −9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MOST	L 55-79	+3.5	L −20.5	131.5	O 134
Jan 4	@FIU	L 64-76	+6.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 8	vsMTSU	W 83-80	+3.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−14.5

USU

L 51-75

−7.5

W&M

L 63-74

−8.5

UAB

L 59-75

−7.5

SEA

L 68-75

+5.5

HAW

L 61-66

+7.5

NORF

L 71-72

−11.5

NDSU

W 76-66

+12.5

L 63-75

−9.5

MOST

L 55-79

−20.5

FIU

L 64-76

−5.5

MTSU

W 83-80

+6.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−15.5

USU

L 51-75

−23.5

W&M

L 63-74

−22.5

UAB

L 59-75

−12.5

SEA

L 68-75

+6.5

HAW

L 61-66

−11.5

NORF

L 71-72

+6.5

NDSU

W 76-66

+2.5

L 63-75

+7.5

MOST

L 55-79

+2.5

FIU

L 64-76

−12.5

MTSU

W 83-80

+25.5

over 6under 6avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at UTEP Miners

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Western KY

UTEP

Western KY

UTEP