Long Beach State Beach at San José State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 PM ETProvident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Long Beach St and San José St
LBSU	This season	SJSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJSU 80–69 · win probability SJSU 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

LBSU 2, SJSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SJSUBig

SJSU offense vs LBSU defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 300th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: LBSU plays 71.7 a game (46th fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points

SJSUBig

LBSU offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 285th of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

LBSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LBSU 26.2%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: LBSU 72.2%, SJSU 63.5%

SJSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LBSU 30.7, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: LBSU 42.3, SJSU 35.4

SJSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LBSU 18.0%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: LBSU 17.5%, SJSU 17.4%

Context

Schedule so far

LBSU has played the 152nd-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LBSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LBSU 50.6 and allows 53.7; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1

SJSUSmall

Home court

SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, LBSU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LBSU 8%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: LBSU 5, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

LBSU hits 32.7% and allows 34.4%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 34.8% and 38.3% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SJSU -11.4	—
Total	—	148.6	—
Projected score	—	LBSU 68.6 · SJSU 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJSU -6.6	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	LBSU 31.4 · SJSU 38.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LBSU WLLLW	16-14	53%	8-8	—
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	6-9	—

Venue/role: LBSU away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LBSU UOOUO	20-10	67%	8-22
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LBSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Long Beach St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	@ ILST	L80–82WO

San José St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SUU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LBSU 0–2 SJSUSJSU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · SJSU has won the last 2 meetings · LBSU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 9, 2025-26	LBSU 83 @ SJSU 89	SJSU -7.5	LBSU W
Nov 27, 2024-25	SJSU 82 vs LBSU 66	LBSU +7.5	SJSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Long Beach St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-10

67% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L W W L L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1067%

U O U O O O O O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O O U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SDSU	L 45-77	+25.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 8	@FRES	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	@PAC	L 66-69	+12.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsILST	L 80-82	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsMTST	L 72-78	+3.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 150
Nov 26	@PORT	L 73-93	+5.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 166
Nov 30	vsUSD	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 4	@UCSB	L 77-84	+13.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsUCSD	L 74-80	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 9	@SJSU	L 83-89	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 18	vsPEPP	W 81-78	-4.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 21	@ISU	L 60-91	+37.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 151
Jan 3	vsCP	W 74-66	-2.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@UCI	L 64-74	+10.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	vsCSUB	W 81-75	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCR	W 88-73	-5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	@CSUN	W 87-80	+7.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 22	@CSUF	L 61-71	+3.5	L −6.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	vsUCSB	L 71-74	+4.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCR	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsHAW	L 82-89	+8.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 5	@UCSD	L 74-77	+10.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 12	vsCSUF	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 14	@UCD	L 54-71	+4.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 19	vsUCI	L 58-69	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsCSUN	L 76-78	+2.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	@CP	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@CSUB	W 88-87	-3.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsUCD	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 7	@HAW	W 84-75	+14.5	W +23.5	150.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−6.5

FRES

L 62-82

−13.5

PAC

L 66-69

+9.5

ILST

L 80-82

+6.5

MTST

L 72-78

−2.5

PORT

L 73-93

−14.5

USD

W 76-72

+6.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+6.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+2.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+1.5

PEPP

W 81-78

−1.5

ISU

L 60-91

+6.5

W 74-66

+5.5

UCI

L 64-74

+0.5

CSUB

W 81-75

−0.5

UCR

W 88-73

+9.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+14.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+1.5

UCR

L 61-71

−11.5

HAW

L 82-89

+1.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+7.5

CSUF

L 82-86

−6.5

UCD

L 54-71

−12.5

UCI

L 58-69

−5.5

CSUN

L 76-78

+0.5

L 92-102

−4.5

CSUB

W 88-87

−2.5

UCD

L 70-76

−4.5

HAW

W 84-75

+23.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−13.5

FRES

L 62-82

+1.5

PAC

L 66-69

−6.5

ILST

L 80-82

+20.5

MTST

L 72-78

+9.5

PORT

L 73-93

+17.5

USD

W 76-72

+0.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+19.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+8.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+30.5

PEPP

W 81-78

+17.5

ISU

L 60-91

+1.5

W 74-66

−22.5

UCI

L 64-74

−4.5

CSUB

W 81-75

+13.5

UCR

W 88-73

+19.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+8.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−28.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+0.5

UCR

L 61-71

−12.5

HAW

L 82-89

+26.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+6.5

CSUF

L 82-86

+11.5

UCD

L 54-71

−24.5

UCI

L 58-69

−17.5

CSUN

L 76-78

−3.5

L 92-102

+31.5

CSUB

W 88-87

+22.5

UCD

L 70-76

−3.5

HAW

W 84-75

+8.5

over 20under 10avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Long Beach St 0, San José St 0, even 5

Long Beach StBetterSan José St

G J. Payne TR6.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 40

Even

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

G Y. Sissoko TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 32

No call

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

G C. Jones3.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

F G. Brcic TR4.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 39

No call

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

C N. Amenhauser TR5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 57

Even

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

Long Beach StBetterSan José St

LBSU offense285th of 366 · -8.8

SJSUBig

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

LBSU defense300th of 366 · -7.7

SJSUBig

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players

SJSUSmall

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

Bench-1.9 · 2 players

SJSUBig

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLBSU betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Long Beach St

Guards

J. Payne22 min · TRY. Sissoko11 min · TRC. Jones10 minJ. TenganNewJ. GrayNewM. AdamsNew

Forwards

G. Brcic17 min · TRK. Smith8 min · TRJ. Chaikovsky6 minB. WrightNewH. LauNewM. VanlaninghamNew

Centers

N. Amenhauser12 min · TR

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LBSU73.2 #219

SJSU70.8 #269

Points per possession

LBSU1.02 #303

SJSU1.07 #203

Pace (possessions)

LBSU71.7 #46

SJSU66.0 #315

Shooting

Effective FG%

LBSU50.6 #207

SJSU49.7 #255

3-point %

LBSU32.7 #245

SJSU35.3 #97

3-point attempt rate

LBSU34.8 #280

SJSU38.3 #204

Free throw rate

LBSU30.7 #287

SJSU33.4 #225

Possessions

Turnover rate

LBSU18.0 #271

SJSU15.1 #77

Offensive rebound rate

LBSU26.2 #315

SJSU29.3 #225

Assists per game

LBSU12.3 #264

SJSU10.3 #353

Defense

Points allowed

LBSU79.0 #297

SJSU79.2 #305

Points allowed per possession

LBSU1.10 #220

SJSU1.20 #359

Opponent effective FG%

LBSU53.7 #290

SJSU57.1 #359

Opponent 3-point %

LBSU34.4 #212

SJSU36.0 #305

Turnovers forced

LBSU17.5 #119

SJSU17.4 #123

Defensive rebound rate

LBSU72.2 #60

SJSU63.5 #354

Steals per game

LBSU6.5 #173

SJSU5.8 #259

Blocks per game

LBSU2.9 #250

SJSU2.2 #333

LBSU		SJSU
Scoring
73.2 #219	Points per game	70.8 #269
1.02 #303	Points per possession	1.07 #203
71.7 #46	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #315
Shooting
50.6 #207	Effective FG%	49.7 #255
32.7 #245	3-point %	35.3 #97
34.8 #280	3-point attempt rate	38.3 #204
30.7 #287	Free throw rate	33.4 #225
Possessions
18.0 #271	Turnover rate	15.1 #77
26.2 #315	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #225
12.3 #264	Assists per game	10.3 #353
Defense
79.0 #297	Points allowed	79.2 #305
1.10 #220	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #359
53.7 #290	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #359
34.4 #212	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #305
17.5 #119	Turnovers forced	17.4 #123
72.2 #60	Defensive rebound rate	63.5 #354
6.5 #173	Steals per game	5.8 #259
2.9 #250	Blocks per game	2.2 #333

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Beach St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ Hawai'i84–75
Lvs UC Davis70–76
W@ Bakersfield88–87
L@ Cal Poly92–102
Lvs CSU Northridge76–78

A week or more of rest.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

Long Beach State Beach at San José State Spartans

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Long Beach St

San José St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Long Beach St

San José St