1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. MER @ ASU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Mercer Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils

Desert Financial Arena · at Arizona St
#242MERMercer
@
#60ASUArizona St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERThis seasonASU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ASU 87–66 · win probability ASU 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ASU has more of the edges

MER 2, ASU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ASUBig
ASU offense vs MER defense
Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MER has played the 193rd-hardest schedule, ASU the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ASUBig
MER offense vs ASU defense
Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings
MERSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MER 32.6%, ASU 29.9%. Defensive: MER 66.8%, ASU 65.1%
ASUSmall
Home court
ASU at home. This season: ASU 0-0 at home, MER 0-0 away
MERSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MER 39.2, ASU 39.5. Allowed: MER 29.7, ASU 34.3
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MER 53.1 and allows 52.5; ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MER 15.0%, ASU 17.1%. Forced: MER 17.0%, ASU 18.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MER 28%, ASU 11%. Transfers in: MER 2, ASU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MER plays 69.5 a game (148th fastest), ASU 70.6 (93rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%; ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 39.2% and 38.4% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ASU -20.6—
Total—153.1—
Projected score—MER 66.3 · ASU 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadASU -12.1—
1H total71.6—
1H projected scoreMER 29.7 · ASU 41.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arizona St has the better starters

Position by position: Mercer 0, Arizona St 3, even 2
MercerBetterArizona St
G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
ASUBig
G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79
G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22
ASUSmall
G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62
Even
G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10
ASUBig
F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97
F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
MercerBetterArizona St
MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8
ASUBig
ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2
MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8
ASUBig
ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players
ASUBig
Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
ASUBig
Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMER betterASU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercer
Guards
B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew
Forwards
K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew
Arizona St
Guards
J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew
Forwards
P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew
Centers
B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERASU
Scoring
80.1 #65Points per game76.3 #133
1.15 #55Points per possession1.08 #178
69.5 #148Pace (possessions)70.6 #93
Shooting
53.1 #98Effective FG%51.1 #190
35.6 #873-point %33.4 #202
39.2 #1883-point attempt rate38.4 #201
39.2 #74Free throw rate39.5 #66
Possessions
15.0 #67Turnover rate17.1 #211
32.6 #102Offensive rebound rate29.9 #206
12.7 #240Assists per game13.7 #166
Defense
77.8 #263Points allowed78.3 #273
1.12 #273Points allowed per possession1.11 #239
52.5 #242Opponent effective FG%52.4 #235
36.2 #311Opponent 3-point %35.0 #249
17.0 #155Turnovers forced18.4 #77
66.8 #303Defensive rebound rate65.1 #337
7.1 #115Steals per game7.0 #122
3.2 #186Blocks per game4.6 #32
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs W Carolina73–77
  • Wvs ETSU82–76
  • L@ W Carolina74–78
  • Wvs Samford89–86
  • Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State42–91
  • Wvs Baylor83–79
  • L@ Iowa State65–86
  • Wvs Kansas70–60
  • Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.