Arizona State Sun Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 PM ETBOK Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Arizona St and Oklahoma
ASU	This season	OU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OU 81–76 · win probability OU 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

ASU 1, OU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4; OU 54.9 and allows 51.0

OUBig

Three-pointers

ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%; OU hits 36.5% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 38.4% and 43.6% of their shots

OUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ASU 29.9%, OU 32.8%. Defensive: ASU 65.1%, OU 67.1%

OUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ASU 11%, OU 43%. Transfers in: ASU 6, OU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ASUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ASU 39.5, OU 35.5. Allowed: ASU 34.3, OU 34.9

Even

OU offense vs ASU defense

Offense 28th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: ASU plays 70.6 a game (93rd fastest), OU 69.4 (154th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

ASU has played the 13th-hardest schedule, OU the 32nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ASU 17.1%, OU 14.3%. Forced: ASU 18.4%, OU 15.5%

Even

ASU offense vs OU defense

Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 51st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OU -4.1	—
Total	—	156.8	—
Projected score	—	ASU 76.3 · OU 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -2.3	—
1H total	73.3	—
1H projected score	ASU 35.5 · OU 37.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ASU WWLWL	20-13	61%	5-2	—
OU WWLWL	17-20	46%	5-5	—

Venue/role: ASU neutral site; OU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UUOOU	16-17	48%	17-16
OU UUOUO	18-19	49%	21-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
OU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs MER	No recent meeting
Dec 14	@ ORST	L75–78LO

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs ALST	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs OKST	W85–76WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ASU 1–0 OUASU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ASU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	OU 70 vs ASU 86	ASU +5.5	ASU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Arizona St

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W L W W W W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L W L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

U U U U O O O O U U O O O O O O O O U O U U U U U U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 24	vsTEX	W 87-86	+6.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsWSU	W 100-94	-4.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 194
Nov 26	vsUSC	L 75-88	+4.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsOU	W 86-70	+5.5	W +21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 9	vsNAU	W 73-48	-16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsSCU	W 82-79	+1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	@UCLA	L 77-90	+9.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 21	vsORST	L 75-78	-12.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 153
Jan 3	vsCOLO	L 89-95	-1.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 184
Jan 7	@BYU	L 76-104	+17.5	L −10.5	168.5	O 180
Jan 10	vsKSU	W 87-84	-1.5	W +1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	@ARIZ	L 82-89	+21.5	W +14.5	167.5	O 171
Jan 18	@HOU	L 73-103	+18.5	L −11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 21	vsWVU	L 63-75	-1.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 138
Jan 24	vsCIN	W 82-68	+3.5	W +17.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 27	@UCF	L 76-79	+6.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsARIZ	L 74-87	+14.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 161
Feb 4	@UTAH	W 71-63	+1.5	W +9.5	161.5	U 134
Feb 7	@COLO	L 70-78	+3.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 148
Feb 10	vsOKST	W 85-76	-3.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 161
Feb 17	vsTTU	W 72-67	+7.5	W +12.5	156.5	U 139
Feb 21	@BAY	L 68-73	+8.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 141
Feb 24	@TCU	L 78-90	+6.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 168
Feb 28	vsUTAH	W 73-60	-6.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 133
Mar 3	vsKU	W 70-60	+5.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 130
Mar 7	@ISU	L 65-86	+16.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 151
Mar 10	vsBAY	W 83-79	+5.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 162
Mar 11	vsISU	L 42-91	+13.5	L −35.5	148.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

TEX

W 87-86

+7.5

WSU

W 100-94

+1.5

USC

L 75-88

−8.5

W 86-70

+21.5

NAU

W 73-48

+8.5

SCU

W 82-79

+4.5

UCLA

L 77-90

−3.5

ORST

L 75-78

−15.5

COLO

L 89-95

−7.5

BYU

L 76-104

−10.5

KSU

W 87-84

+1.5

ARIZ

L 82-89

+14.5

HOU

L 73-103

−11.5

WVU

L 63-75

−13.5

CIN

W 82-68

+17.5

UCF

L 76-79

+3.5

ARIZ

L 74-87

+1.5

UTAH

W 71-63

+9.5

COLO

L 70-78

−4.5

OKST

W 85-76

+5.5

TTU

W 72-67

+12.5

BAY

L 68-73

+3.5

TCU

L 78-90

−5.5

UTAH

W 73-60

+6.5

W 70-60

+15.5

ISU

L 65-86

−4.5

BAY

W 83-79

+9.5

ISU

L 42-91

−35.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

TEX

W 87-86

+19.5

WSU

W 100-94

+36.5

USC

L 75-88

+1.5

W 86-70

−1.5

NAU

W 73-48

−33.5

SCU

W 82-79

+6.5

UCLA

L 77-90

+24.5

ORST

L 75-78

+5.5

COLO

L 89-95

+27.5

BYU

L 76-104

+11.5

KSU

W 87-84

+1.5

ARIZ

L 82-89

+3.5

HOU

L 73-103

+33.5

WVU

L 63-75

−7.5

CIN

W 82-68

+3.5

UCF

L 76-79

−6.5

ARIZ

L 74-87

−2.5

UTAH

W 71-63

−27.5

COLO

L 70-78

−10.5

OKST

W 85-76

−2.5

TTU

W 72-67

−17.5

BAY

L 68-73

−16.5

TCU

L 78-90

+18.5

UTAH

W 73-60

−17.5

W 70-60

−21.5

ISU

L 65-86

+2.5

BAY

W 83-79

+9.5

ISU

L 42-91

−15.5

over 16under 17avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

37 games played

Straight up

21-16

57% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1657%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O O U U O U O O U U O O O O U O U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsMISS	W 86-70	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	@MSST	L 53-72	+1.5	L −17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@TA&M	L 76-83	+4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 159
Jan 13	vsFLA	L 79-96	+7.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	vsALA	L 81-83	+5.5	W +3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 20	@SC	L 76-85	-2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@MIZ	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 175
Jan 27	vsARK	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	167.5	U 162
Jan 31	vsTEX	L 69-79	+1.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 4	@UK	L 78-94	+8.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	@VAN	W 92-91	+11.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 14	vsUGA	W 94-78	-1.5	W +14.5	164.5	O 172
Feb 18	@TENN	L 66-89	+11.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	vsTA&M	L 71-75	+1.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 146
Feb 24	vsAUB	W 91-79	+3.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	@LSU	W 83-67	+1.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	vsMIZ	W 80-64	+1.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 7	@TEX	W 88-85	+6.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsSC	W 86-74	-7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsTA&M	W 83-63	+2.5	W +22.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 13	vsARK	L 79-82	+6.5	W +3.5	166.5	U 161
Apr 1	vsCOLO	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 176
Apr 4	vsBAY	W 82-69	+1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 151
Apr 5	vsWVU	L 82-89	-3.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−17.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−2.5

FLA

L 79-96

−9.5

ALA

L 81-83

+3.5

L 76-85

−11.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+3.5

ARK

L 79-83

−0.5

TEX

L 69-79

−8.5

L 78-94

−7.5

VAN

W 92-91

+12.5

UGA

W 94-78

+14.5

TENN

L 66-89

−11.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−2.5

AUB

W 91-79

+15.5

LSU

W 83-67

+17.5

MIZ

W 80-64

+17.5

TEX

W 88-85

+9.5

W 86-74

+4.5

TA&M

W 83-63

+22.5

ARK

L 79-82

+3.5

COLO

W 90-86

−5.5

BAY

W 82-69

+14.5

WVU

L 82-89

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−33.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−6.5

FLA

L 79-96

+17.5

ALA

L 81-83

−13.5

L 76-85

+10.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+23.5

ARK

L 79-83

−5.5

TEX

L 69-79

−7.5

L 78-94

+19.5

VAN

W 92-91

+23.5

UGA

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

L 66-89

+5.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−19.5

AUB

W 91-79

+12.5

LSU

W 83-67

−5.5

MIZ

W 80-64

−9.5

TEX

W 88-85

+18.5

W 86-74

+10.5

TA&M

W 83-63

−16.5

ARK

L 79-82

−5.5

COLO

W 90-86

+13.5

BAY

W 82-69

−8.5

WVU

L 82-89

+29.5

over 18under 19avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma has the better starters

Position by position: Arizona St 0, Oklahoma 1, even 4

Arizona StBetterOklahoma

G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79

Even

G B. Edwards TR12.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 93

G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55

OUBig

G X. Brown15.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 92

G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58

Even

G T. Hendricks TR11.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 60

F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97

Even

F D. Brennan TR12.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 95

C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84

Even

F D. Reid11.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 84

Arizona StBetterOklahoma

ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2

Even

OU defense51st of 366 · +1.9

ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2

Even

OU offense28th of 366 · +6.6

Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players

OUBig

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players

ASUSmall

Frontcourt+6.9 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 2 players

OUSmall

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestASU betterOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Arizona St

Guards

J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew

Forwards

P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew

Centers

B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew

Oklahoma

Guards

B. Edwards33 min · TRX. Brown32 minT. Hendricks31 min · TRP. Isaacs22 min · TRD. Forsythe17 minB. MoserNew

Forwards

D. Brennan31 min · TRD. Reid28 minK. Rooths16 min · TRK. Rogers8 minF. KeeffeNewG. MayfieldNew

Centers

Y. Yaak15 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ASU76.3 #133

OU82.9 #29

Points per possession

ASU1.08 #178

OU1.19 #23

Pace (possessions)

ASU70.6 #93

OU69.4 #154

Shooting

Effective FG%

ASU51.1 #190

OU54.9 #40

3-point %

ASU33.4 #202

OU36.5 #41

3-point attempt rate

ASU38.4 #201

OU43.6 #97

Free throw rate

ASU39.5 #66

OU35.5 #161

Possessions

Turnover rate

ASU17.1 #211

OU14.3 #33

Offensive rebound rate

ASU29.9 #206

OU32.8 #92

Assists per game

ASU13.7 #166

OU14.5 #116

Defense

Points allowed

ASU78.3 #273

OU77.4 #248

Points allowed per possession

ASU1.11 #239

OU1.12 #271

Opponent effective FG%

ASU52.4 #235

OU51.0 #162

Opponent 3-point %

ASU35.0 #249

OU34.1 #189

Turnovers forced

ASU18.4 #77

OU15.5 #247

Defensive rebound rate

ASU65.1 #337

OU67.1 #296

Steals per game

ASU7.0 #122

OU6.3 #193

Blocks per game

ASU4.6 #32

OU3.9 #89

ASU		OU
Scoring
76.3 #133	Points per game	82.9 #29
1.08 #178	Points per possession	1.19 #23
70.6 #93	Pace (possessions)	69.4 #154
Shooting
51.1 #190	Effective FG%	54.9 #40
33.4 #202	3-point %	36.5 #41
38.4 #201	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #97
39.5 #66	Free throw rate	35.5 #161
Possessions
17.1 #211	Turnover rate	14.3 #33
29.9 #206	Offensive rebound rate	32.8 #92
13.7 #166	Assists per game	14.5 #116
Defense
78.3 #273	Points allowed	77.4 #248
1.11 #239	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #271
52.4 #235	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #162
35.0 #249	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #189
18.4 #77	Turnovers forced	15.5 #247
65.1 #337	Defensive rebound rate	67.1 #296
7.0 #122	Steals per game	6.3 #193
4.6 #32	Blocks per game	3.9 #89

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State42–91
Wvs Baylor83–79
L@ Iowa State65–86
Wvs Kansas70–60
Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma

21-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia82–89
Wvs Baylor82–69
Wvs Colorado90–86
Lvs Arkansas79–82
Wvs Texas A&M83–63

A week or more of rest.

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Arizona St

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Arizona St

Oklahoma