1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. APP @ UK
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

App State Mountaineers at Kentucky Wildcats

Rupp Arena · at Kentucky
#248APPApp State
@
#19UKKentucky AP #23
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
APPThis seasonUK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UK 88–59 · win probability UK 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

APP 1, UK 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UKBig
APP offense vs UK defense
Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
APP has played the 252nd-hardest schedule, UK the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UKBig
UK offense vs APP defense
Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: APP plays 64.3 a game (358th fastest), UK 69.9 (123rd). Faster games mean more points
UKSmall
Three-pointers
APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%; UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 45.9% and 39.7% of their shots
APPSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: APP 39.1, UK 37.4. Allowed: APP 31.2, UK 36.4
UKSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: APP 49.9 and allows 47.5; UK 53.4 and allows 48.9
UKSmall
Home court
UK at home. This season: UK 0-0 at home, APP 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: APP 15.3%, UK 15.4%. Forced: APP 14.0%, UK 15.5%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: APP 32.0%, UK 33.2%. Defensive: APP 71.0%, UK 70.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: APP 25%, UK 26%. Transfers in: APP 2, UK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UK -29.5—
Total—146.8—
Projected score—APP 58.7 · UK 88.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUK -17.4—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreAPP 25.6 · UK 43—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: App State 0, Kentucky 4, even 1
App StateBetterKentucky
G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
UKBig
G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81
G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
UKBig
G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15
UKSmall
G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48
F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37
UKBig
F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97
C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87
App StateBetterKentucky
APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6
UKBig
UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5
APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2
UKBig
UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5
Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players
UKBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
UKBig
Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
UKBig
Bench+5.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestAPP betterUK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
App State
Guards
H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew
Forwards
C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew
Centers
R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew
Kentucky
Guards
A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew
Forwards
M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew
Centers
F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
APPUK
Scoring
69.3 #295Points per game80.5 #55
1.08 #187Points per possession1.15 #57
64.3 #358Pace (possessions)69.9 #123
Shooting
49.9 #240Effective FG%53.4 #87
30.4 #3353-point %34.2 #158
45.9 #483-point attempt rate39.7 #180
39.1 #77Free throw rate37.4 #119
Possessions
15.3 #87Turnover rate15.4 #98
32.0 #123Offensive rebound rate33.2 #84
11.4 #318Assists per game15.9 #50
Defense
67.4 #25Points allowed74.3 #167
1.05 #87Points allowed per possession1.06 #115
47.5 #33Opponent effective FG%48.9 #63
32.2 #71Opponent 3-point %31.8 #55
14.0 #336Turnovers forced15.5 #248
71.0 #106Defensive rebound rate70.0 #158
4.6 #351Steals per game7.0 #123
3.4 #155Blocks per game4.6 #33
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss73–86
  • L@ Texas St57–60
  • Wvs GA Southern89–74
  • Lvs Marshall93–94
  • L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State63–82
  • Wvs Santa Clara89–84
  • Lvs Florida63–71
  • Wvs Missouri78–72
  • Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.