Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 1:00 PM ETFord Center · at Evansville

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Western KY and Evansville
WKU	This season	EVAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WKU 77–72 · win probability WKU 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WKU has more of the edges

WKU 6, EVAN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WKUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WKU 14.5%, EVAN 19.1%. Forced: WKU 17.2%, EVAN 15.4%

WKUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WKU 31.8%, EVAN 22.0%. Defensive: WKU 70.5%, EVAN 69.8%

WKUSmall

EVAN offense vs WKU defense

Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings

WKUSmall

WKU offense vs EVAN defense

Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings

WKUSmall

Three-pointers

WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%; EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 39.5% and 43.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: WKU plays 71.5 a game (52nd fastest), EVAN 67.9 (232nd). Faster games mean more points

WKUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2; EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1

EVANSmall

Home court

EVAN at home. This season: EVAN 0-0 at home, WKU 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

WKU has played the 160th-hardest schedule, EVAN the 127th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WKU 44%, EVAN 35%. Transfers in: WKU 4, EVAN 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WKU 41.2, EVAN 29.8. Allowed: WKU 46.8, EVAN 31.4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WKU -5.2	—
Total	—	149.5	—
Projected score	—	WKU 77.3 · EVAN 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WKU -3.2	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	WKU 36.5 · EVAN 33.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLLL	15-15	50%	5-7	—
EVAN WLWLW	14-16	47%	5-8	—

Venue/role: WKU away; EVAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OOOUO	15-15	50%	16-14
EVAN OOOOU	15-15	50%	5-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
EVAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Western KY

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs UAB	L60–72LU

Evansville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ BALL	W64–52WU
Dec 15	vs DRKE	L78–82WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WKU 2–0 EVANWKU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · WKU has won the last 2 meetings · WKU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	EVAN 79 @ WKU 80	WKU -11.5	EVAN W
Dec 7, 2024-25	WKU 79 @ EVAN 65	EVAN +6.5	WKU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Western KY

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTNTC	W 82-70	-14.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 10	@EKU	W 87-79	-1.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 16	vsTNST	W 95-82	-12.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsVAN	L 78-83	+18.5	W +13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsUSF	L 91-97	+7.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsWICH	W 75-70	+4.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	vsEVAN	W 80-79	-11.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 10	@MRSH	L 61-77	+1.5	L −14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsTLSA	L 81-82	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 29	@JXST	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	vsSHSU	W 102-91	-5.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	vsLT	W 66-61	-9.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	@NMSU	L 64-80	+2.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 10	@UTEP	W 68-56	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 14	vsMOST	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	vsKENN	L 65-81	-7.5	L −23.5	165.5	U 146
Jan 21	vsLIB	L 69-76	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	@SHSU	L 58-73	+5.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@KENN	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 141
Jan 31	@MTSU	W 65-60	+6.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 5	vsJXST	L 66-71	-4.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsFIU	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsMTSU	W 82-80	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@DEL	W 88-87	-4.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 175
Feb 21	@LIB	W 94-73	+7.5	W +28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	vsNMSU	W 93-70	-4.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 28	vsUTEP	W 97-65	-9.5	W +22.5	145.5	O 162
Mar 5	@MOST	L 74-87	-1.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	@FIU	L 67-92	-1.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 159
Mar 12	vsKENN	L 87-96	-1.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−2.5

EKU

W 87-79

+6.5

TNST

W 95-82

+0.5

VAN

L 78-83

+13.5

USF

L 91-97

+1.5

WICH

W 75-70

+9.5

EVAN

W 80-79

−10.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−14.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+1.5

JXST

L 67-78

−13.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+5.5

W 66-61

−4.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−13.5

UTEP

W 68-56

+8.5

MOST

W 87-72

+8.5

KENN

L 65-81

−23.5

LIB

L 69-76

−5.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−9.5

KENN

L 69-72

+1.5

MTSU

W 65-60

+11.5

JXST

L 66-71

−9.5

FIU

W 80-70

+5.5

MTSU

W 82-80

−1.5

DEL

W 88-87

−3.5

LIB

W 94-73

+28.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+18.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+22.5

MOST

L 74-87

−14.5

FIU

L 67-92

−26.5

KENN

L 87-96

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−1.5

EKU

W 87-79

+3.5

TNST

W 95-82

+9.5

VAN

L 78-83

−7.5

USF

L 91-97

+20.5

WICH

W 75-70

−10.5

EVAN

W 80-79

+11.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−21.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+4.5

JXST

L 67-78

+2.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+24.5

W 66-61

−18.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−10.5

UTEP

W 68-56

−20.5

MOST

W 87-72

+10.5

KENN

L 65-81

−19.5

LIB

L 69-76

−3.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−25.5

KENN

L 69-72

−19.5

MTSU

W 65-60

−15.5

JXST

L 66-71

−3.5

FIU

W 80-70

−9.5

MTSU

W 82-80

+16.5

DEL

W 88-87

+35.5

LIB

W 94-73

+19.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+11.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+16.5

MOST

L 74-87

+8.5

FIU

L 67-92

−1.5

KENN

L 87-96

+23.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148
Jan 10	@INST	W 72-69	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsBRAD	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 20	@UIC	L 49-76	+8.5	L −18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 28	@DRKE	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	@UNI	L 55-71	+11.5	L −4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 3	vsINST	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 6	@VAL	L 63-70	+8.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	vsILST	W 88-80	+10.5	W +18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	@SIU	L 60-86	+12.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 146
Feb 18	vsUIC	L 46-84	+8.5	L −29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	@MUR	L 75-88	+15.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 163
Feb 25	@BEL	L 64-98	+18.5	L −15.5	152.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsVAL	W 80-79	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 1	vsSIU	L 67-81	+9.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUNI	L 59-68	+13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

INST

W 72-69

+10.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+3.5

UIC

L 49-76

−18.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+4.5

UNI

L 55-71

−4.5

INST

L 63-84

−19.5

VAL

L 63-70

+1.5

ILST

W 88-80

+18.5

SIU

L 60-86

−13.5

UIC

L 46-84

−29.5

MUR

L 75-88

+2.5

BEL

L 64-98

−15.5

VAL

W 80-79

+6.5

SIU

L 67-81

−4.5

UNI

L 59-68

+4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

INST

W 72-69

−4.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+41.5

UIC

L 49-76

−14.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+16.5

UNI

L 55-71

−2.5

INST

L 63-84

+1.5

VAL

L 63-70

−3.5

ILST

W 88-80

+30.5

SIU

L 60-86

+3.5

UIC

L 46-84

−10.5

MUR

L 75-88

+9.5

BEL

L 64-98

+9.5

VAL

W 80-79

+21.5

SIU

L 67-81

+8.5

UNI

L 59-68

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western KY has the better starters

Position by position: Western KY 2, Evansville 1, even 2

Western KYBetterEvansville

G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99

WKUBig

G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

No call

G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61

EVANSmall

F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64

Even

F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51

F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71

WKUBig

F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

Western KYBetterEvansville

WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4

WKUSmall

EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7

WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9

WKUSmall

EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5

Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players

WKUBig

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Bench-3.8 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestWKU betterEVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Western KY

Guards

T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min

Forwards

E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew

Evansville

Guards

B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew

Forwards

A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WKU77.9 #95

EVAN65.8 #347

Points per possession

WKU1.09 #163

EVAN0.97 #344

Pace (possessions)

WKU71.5 #52

EVAN67.9 #232

Shooting

Effective FG%

WKU47.5 #327

EVAN49.3 #280

3-point %

WKU33.4 #205

EVAN32.3 #268

3-point attempt rate

WKU39.5 #184

EVAN43.1 #109

Free throw rate

WKU41.2 #42

EVAN29.8 #315

Possessions

Turnover rate

WKU14.5 #42

EVAN19.1 #324

Offensive rebound rate

WKU31.8 #134

EVAN22.0 #355

Assists per game

WKU12.9 #215

EVAN12.6 #245

Defense

Points allowed

WKU77.0 #241

EVAN78.3 #275

Points allowed per possession

WKU1.08 #155

EVAN1.15 #329

Opponent effective FG%

WKU51.2 #169

EVAN55.1 #332

Opponent 3-point %

WKU34.3 #205

EVAN37.6 #351

Turnovers forced

WKU17.2 #134

EVAN15.4 #258

Defensive rebound rate

WKU70.5 #135

EVAN69.8 #170

Steals per game

WKU7.4 #90

EVAN5.0 #335

Blocks per game

WKU2.3 #327

EVAN3.3 #171

WKU		EVAN
Scoring
77.9 #95	Points per game	65.8 #347
1.09 #163	Points per possession	0.97 #344
71.5 #52	Pace (possessions)	67.9 #232
Shooting
47.5 #327	Effective FG%	49.3 #280
33.4 #205	3-point %	32.3 #268
39.5 #184	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #109
41.2 #42	Free throw rate	29.8 #315
Possessions
14.5 #42	Turnover rate	19.1 #324
31.8 #134	Offensive rebound rate	22.0 #355
12.9 #215	Assists per game	12.6 #245
Defense
77.0 #241	Points allowed	78.3 #275
1.08 #155	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #329
51.2 #169	Opponent effective FG%	55.1 #332
34.3 #205	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #351
17.2 #134	Turnovers forced	15.4 #258
70.5 #135	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #170
7.4 #90	Steals per game	5.0 #335
2.3 #327	Blocks per game	3.3 #171

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
L@ FIU67–92
L@ Missouri St74–87
Wvs UTEP97–65
Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
Lvs S Illinois67–81
Wvs Valparaiso80–79
L@ Belmont64–98
L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Evansville Purple Aces

What could decide it: WKU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Western KY

Evansville

Western KY has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Western KY

Evansville