Stony Brook Seawolves at Maine Black Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 1:00 PM ETSkip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium · at Maine

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Stony Brook and Maine
STBK	This season	ME
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STBK 71–64 · win probability STBK 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 135.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ME has more of the edges

STBK 2, ME 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STBKBig

ME offense vs STBK defense

Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings

MEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: STBK 28.4, ME 38.4. Allowed: STBK 35.4, ME 33.9

Context

Schedule so far

STBK has played the 204th-hardest schedule, ME the 319th. A record against a soft schedule means less

STBKSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STBK 28.0%, ME 19.7%. Defensive: STBK 67.7%, ME 65.7%

MESmall

Home court

ME at home. This season: ME 0-0 at home, STBK 0-0 away

MESmall

Three-pointers

STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%; ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%. Threes are 45.8% and 37.0% of their shots

MESmall

STBK offense vs ME defense

Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: STBK plays 67.3 a game (269th fastest), ME 64.9 (348th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STBK 48%, ME 31%. Transfers in: STBK 5, ME 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STBK 16.7%, ME 19.2%. Forced: STBK 17.2%, ME 19.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7; ME 49.6 and allows 50.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STBK -7.0	—
Total	—	135.2	—
Projected score	—	STBK 71.1 · ME 64.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STBK -4.3	—
1H total	63.3	—
1H projected score	STBK 33.8 · ME 29.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STBK WLWLL	18-12	60%	7-6	—
ME WWLLW	14-17	45%	3-8	—

Venue/role: STBK away; ME home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STBK OOUUO	15-15	50%	15-15
ME UUOUU	12-19	39%	7-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STBK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ME	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Stony Brook

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs LAS	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ OSU	No recent meeting

Maine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ DEP	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs BU	W69–59WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STBK 4–0 MESTBK leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · STBK has won the last 4 meetings · STBK 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	ME 60 @ STBK 71	STBK -3.5	STBK W
Dec 21, 2024-25	ME 72 @ STBK 74	STBK +3.5	STBK W
Feb 13, 2021-22	STBK 85 @ ME 74	ME +6.5	STBK W
Jan 8, 2021-22	ME 72 @ STBK 80	STBK -15	ME W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stony Brook

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

W L W L W W L W W L L L L W L L W W W W W L W L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1260%

W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L W W W W W W L W L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U O O O O U U O U U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsME	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 15	@YALE	L 79-86	+20.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 20	vsBRWN	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 24	vsPAC	L 58-86	+4.5	L −23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsBCU	W 61-54	+4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 115
Nov 28	@LMU	W 71-68	+10.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 6	@DUQ	L 75-84	+9.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 9	vsCOLU	W 77-73	+4.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsCMU	W 78-55	-7.5	W +15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 17	vsUALB	L 55-71	-10.5	L −26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	@MRST	L 51-70	+6.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 121
Dec 29	@HAMP	L 59-62	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 121
Dec 31	@W&M	L 57-76	+11.5	L −7.5	159.5	U 133
Jan 3	vsNCAT	W 81-80	-4.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 8	@DREX	L 37-56	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 93
Jan 10	vsUNCW	L 71-75	+6.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 15	vsHOF	W 76-71	+6.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsCOFC	W 112-106	+4.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 218
Jan 22	@NE	W 95-80	+3.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 175
Jan 29	@CAM	W 81-69	+4.5	W +16.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 31	@ELON	W 72-68	+4.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 5	vsMONM	L 75-76	-1.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsNE	W 69-55	-3.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 124
Feb 12	@TOW	L 57-69	+7.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 126
Feb 16	vsDREX	W 72-69	-2.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsHAMP	W 79-72	-5.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 151
Feb 26	@MONM	L 69-82	+3.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 28	@HOF	L 58-67	+11.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsTOW	L 57-69	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsCAM	L 89-96	+2.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 71-60

+7.5

YALE

L 79-86

+13.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+6.5

PAC

L 58-86

−23.5

BCU

W 61-54

+11.5

LMU

W 71-68

+13.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+0.5

COLU

W 77-73

+8.5

CMU

W 78-55

+15.5

UALB

L 55-71

−26.5

MRST

L 51-70

−12.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−0.5

W&M

L 57-76

−7.5

NCAT

W 81-80

−3.5

DREX

L 37-56

−13.5

UNCW

L 71-75

+2.5

HOF

W 76-71

+11.5

COFC

W 112-106

+10.5

W 95-80

+18.5

CAM

W 81-69

+16.5

ELON

W 72-68

+8.5

MONM

L 75-76

−2.5

W 69-55

+10.5

TOW

L 57-69

−4.5

DREX

W 72-69

+0.5

HAMP

W 79-72

+1.5

MONM

L 69-82

−9.5

HOF

L 58-67

+2.5

TOW

L 57-69

−10.5

CAM

L 89-96

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 71-60

−0.5

YALE

L 79-86

+14.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+13.5

PAC

L 58-86

−1.5

BCU

W 61-54

−30.5

LMU

W 71-68

+0.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+8.5

COLU

W 77-73

+3.5

CMU

W 78-55

−12.5

UALB

L 55-71

−20.5

MRST

L 51-70

−16.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−19.5

W&M

L 57-76

−26.5

NCAT

W 81-80

+19.5

DREX

L 37-56

−39.5

UNCW

L 71-75

+12.5

HOF

W 76-71

+10.5

COFC

W 112-106

+75.5

W 95-80

+26.5

CAM

W 81-69

−2.5

ELON

W 72-68

−8.5

MONM

L 75-76

+13.5

W 69-55

−29.5

TOW

L 57-69

−9.5

DREX

W 72-69

+5.5

HAMP

W 79-72

+15.5

MONM

L 69-82

+5.5

HOF

L 58-67

−15.5

TOW

L 57-69

−11.5

CAM

L 89-96

+36.5

over 15under 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maine

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W W L W L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

W L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W L W L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O U O U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsLONG	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	vsSIE	L 60-64	+9.5	W +5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OHIO	L 57-79	+12.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	@M-OH	L 61-93	+17.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@BU	W 69-59	+8.5	W +18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCAN	L 43-70	-6.5	L −33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 21	@DREX	L 56-74	+10.5	L −7.5	129.5	O 130
Jan 3	vsBRY	L 51-56	+1.5	L −3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	@UMBC	L 62-69	+7.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	@NJIT	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 144
Jan 15	@UVM	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsUNH	L 48-65	-1.5	L −18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsUALB	W 52-49	+2.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	vsBING	W 79-63	-5.5	W +10.5	124.5	O 142
Jan 31	@UML	L 77-91	+4.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	vsUVM	W 76-70	+8.5	W +14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	@BRY	L 67-73	+2.5	L −3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	vsUMBC	L 62-78	+3.5	L −12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	vsNJIT	L 58-67	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 125
Feb 21	@UNH	W 61-58	+3.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@UALB	W 70-59	+4.5	W +15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	@BING	L 67-74	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 141
Mar 3	vsUML	L 56-67	+1.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	@NJIT	L 58-60	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

LONG

L 61-65

+1.5

SIE

L 60-64

+5.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−9.5

M-OH

L 61-93

−14.5

W 69-59

+18.5

CAN

L 43-70

−33.5

DREX

L 56-74

−7.5

BRY

L 51-56

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-69

+0.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+5.5

UVM

L 62-67

+9.5

UNH

L 48-65

−18.5

UALB

W 52-49

+5.5

BING

W 79-63

+10.5

UML

L 77-91

−9.5

UVM

W 76-70

+14.5

BRY

L 67-73

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-78

−12.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−7.5

UNH

W 61-58

+6.5

UALB

W 70-59

+15.5

BING

L 67-74

−8.5

UML

L 56-67

−9.5

NJIT

L 58-60

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

LONG

L 61-65

−12.5

SIE

L 60-64

−3.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−2.5

M-OH

L 61-93

+14.5

W 69-59

−0.5

CAN

L 43-70

−14.5

DREX

L 56-74

+0.5

BRY

L 51-56

−18.5

UMBC

L 62-69

−2.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+13.5

UVM

L 62-67

−1.5

UNH

L 48-65

−16.5

UALB

W 52-49

−30.5

BING

W 79-63

+17.5

UML

L 77-91

+31.5

UVM

W 76-70

+15.5

BRY

L 67-73

+11.5

UMBC

L 62-78

+4.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−12.5

UNH

W 61-58

−16.5

UALB

W 70-59

−1.5

BING

L 67-74

+7.5

UML

L 56-67

−16.5

NJIT

L 58-60

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stony Brook has the better starters

Position by position: Stony Brook 2, Maine 1, even 2

Stony BrookBetterMaine

G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23

G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46

STBKSmall

G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45

STBKSmall

G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18

MESmall

F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33

F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25

Even

F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

Stony BrookBetterMaine

STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2

Even

ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5

STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7

STBKBig

ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

STBKBig

Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players

MESmall

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.4 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSTBK betterME betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Stony Brook

Guards

C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min

Forwards

B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR

Centers

L. Van ElswykNew

Maine

Guards

D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew

Forwards

A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STBK70.7 #270

ME61.2 #364

Points per possession

STBK1.05 #254

ME0.95 #356

Pace (possessions)

STBK67.3 #269

ME64.9 #348

Shooting

Effective FG%

STBK50.2 #227

ME49.6 #263

3-point %

STBK34.8 #128

ME31.2 #314

3-point attempt rate

STBK45.8 #50

ME37.0 #231

Free throw rate

STBK28.4 #339

ME38.4 #93

Possessions

Turnover rate

STBK16.7 #181

ME19.2 #328

Offensive rebound rate

STBK28.0 #267

ME19.7 #364

Assists per game

STBK12.9 #216

ME11.8 #300

Defense

Points allowed

STBK72.5 #118

ME68.5 #39

Points allowed per possession

STBK1.08 #168

ME1.05 #90

Opponent effective FG%

STBK50.7 #138

ME50.6 #136

Opponent 3-point %

STBK35.7 #291

ME29.4 #4

Turnovers forced

STBK17.2 #135

ME19.3 #38

Defensive rebound rate

STBK67.7 #275

ME65.7 #322

Steals per game

STBK6.3 #201

ME7.7 #57

Blocks per game

STBK3.6 #122

ME3.2 #194

STBK		ME
Scoring
70.7 #270	Points per game	61.2 #364
1.05 #254	Points per possession	0.95 #356
67.3 #269	Pace (possessions)	64.9 #348
Shooting
50.2 #227	Effective FG%	49.6 #263
34.8 #128	3-point %	31.2 #314
45.8 #50	3-point attempt rate	37.0 #231
28.4 #339	Free throw rate	38.4 #93
Possessions
16.7 #181	Turnover rate	19.2 #328
28.0 #267	Offensive rebound rate	19.7 #364
12.9 #216	Assists per game	11.8 #300
Defense
72.5 #118	Points allowed	68.5 #39
1.08 #168	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #90
50.7 #138	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #136
35.7 #291	Opponent 3-point %	29.4 #4
17.2 #135	Turnovers forced	19.3 #38
67.7 #275	Defensive rebound rate	65.7 #322
6.3 #201	Steals per game	7.7 #57
3.6 #122	Blocks per game	3.2 #194

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Campbell89–96
Lvs Towson57–69
L@ Hofstra58–67
L@ Monmouth69–82
Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ NJIT58–60
Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
L@ Binghamton67–74
W@ UAlbany70–59
W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Maine Black Bears

What could decide it: ME has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stony Brook

Maine

Stony Brook has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Stony Brook

Maine