1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. LAS @ STBK
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

La Salle Explorers at Stony Brook Seawolves

Stony Brook Arena · at Stony Brook
#124LASLa Salle
@
#191STBKStony Brook
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LASThis seasonSTBK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAS 72–70 · win probability LAS 55%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 141.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STBK has more of the edges

LAS 3, STBK 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
STBKBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAS 45.4 and allows 55.0; STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7
LASBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAS 37.5, STBK 28.4. Allowed: LAS 31.5, STBK 35.4
LASBig
STBK offense vs LAS defense
Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 111th, on the model’s ratings
STBKBig
Three-pointers
LAS hits 30.0% and allows 36.5%; STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 31.5% and 45.8% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
LAS has played the 92nd-hardest schedule, STBK the 204th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LASSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAS 33.7%, STBK 28.0%. Defensive: LAS 67.7%, STBK 67.7%
STBKSmall
Home court
STBK at home. This season: STBK 0-0 at home, LAS 0-0 away
STBKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAS 18.2%, STBK 16.7%. Forced: LAS 17.2%, STBK 17.2%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: LAS plays 66.4 a game (300th fastest), STBK 67.3 (269th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAS 56%, STBK 48%. Transfers in: LAS 5, STBK 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
LAS offense vs STBK defense
Offense 157th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LAS -1.4—
Total—141.8—
Projected score—LAS 71.6 · STBK 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLAS -1.0—
1H total66.4—
1H projected scoreLAS 33.7 · STBK 32.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

La Salle has the better starters

Position by position: La Salle 3, Stony Brook 0, even 2
La SalleBetterStony Brook
G J. Johnson6.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 29
No call
G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked
G R. Dockery12.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 91
LASBig
G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46
F J. Brewer11.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
LASSmall
F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45
F V. Zanki TR8.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 46
LASSmall
F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18
F A. Finkley TR5.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 19
Even
F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
La SalleBetterStony Brook
LAS offense157th of 366 · -4.7
Even
STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7
LAS defense111th of 366 · -1.3
LASSmall
STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt+0.4 · 2 players
LASSmall
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
LASSmall
Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Bench-3.6 · 5 players
STBKBig
Bench-0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAS betterSTBK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
La Salle
Guards
J. Johnson30 minR. Dockery27 minK. Burton19 min · TRD. Booker8 min · TRA. Masharaliyev1 minT. MossNew
Forwards
J. Brewer27 minV. Zanki21 min · TRA. Finkley19 min · TRN. Collier14 minE. Rink12 min · TRB. Beatty10 min
Stony Brook
Guards
C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min
Forwards
B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR
Centers
L. Van ElswykNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LASSTBK
Scoring
66.8 #336Points per game70.7 #270
1.00 #322Points per possession1.05 #254
66.4 #300Pace (possessions)67.3 #269
Shooting
45.4 #357Effective FG%50.2 #227
30.0 #3423-point %34.8 #128
31.5 #3333-point attempt rate45.8 #50
37.5 #113Free throw rate28.4 #339
Possessions
18.2 #281Turnover rate16.7 #181
33.7 #75Offensive rebound rate28.0 #267
12.9 #221Assists per game12.9 #216
Defense
75.0 #186Points allowed72.5 #118
1.13 #293Points allowed per possession1.08 #168
55.0 #329Opponent effective FG%50.7 #138
36.5 #324Opponent 3-point %35.7 #291
17.2 #136Turnovers forced17.2 #135
67.7 #274Defensive rebound rate67.7 #275
6.7 #155Steals per game6.3 #201
2.6 #295Blocks per game3.6 #122
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

La Salle

8-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St Bonaventure80–99
  • L@ Saint Joseph's76–88
  • Wvs Fordham87–84
  • L@ Davidson64–71
  • Lvs G Washington77–104

A week or more of rest.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Campbell89–96
  • Lvs Towson57–69
  • L@ Hofstra58–67
  • L@ Monmouth69–82
  • Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.