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  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. ECU @ APP
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

East Carolina Pirates at App State Mountaineers

Holmes Convocation Center · at App State
#145ECUEast Carolina
@
#248APPApp State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ECUThis seasonAPP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ECU 72–69 · win probability ECU 58%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 140.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: APP has more of the edges

ECU 1, APP 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ECUBig
APP offense vs ECU defense
Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 158th, on the model’s ratings
APPBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ECU 46.4 and allows 52.3; APP 49.9 and allows 47.5
Context
Schedule so far
ECU has played the 123rd-hardest schedule, APP the 252nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: ECU plays 70.0 a game (116th fastest), APP 64.3 (358th). Faster games mean more points
APPSmall
Three-pointers
ECU hits 29.3% and allows 34.9%; APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 31.1% and 45.9% of their shots
APPSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ECU 33.4%, APP 32.0%. Defensive: ECU 67.5%, APP 71.0%
APPSmall
Home court
APP at home. This season: APP 0-0 at home, ECU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ECU 16%, APP 25%. Transfers in: ECU 5, APP 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ECU 39.2, APP 39.1. Allowed: ECU 32.2, APP 31.2
Even
ECU offense vs APP defense
Offense 142nd of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ECU 17.1%, APP 15.3%. Forced: ECU 16.3%, APP 14.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ECU -2.4—
Total—140.8—
Projected score—ECU 71.6 · APP 69.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadECU -1.5—
1H total65.9—
1H projected scoreECU 33.7 · APP 32.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

East Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: East Carolina 3, App State 0, even 2
East CarolinaBetterApp State
G C. Medley TR10.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 32
Even
G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
G B. Blaine TR17.7 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
ECUBig
G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
F K. Watson TR12.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50
ECUBig
F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15
F K. Cooper TR8.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
ECUBig
F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37
F J. Woodard3.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
No call
C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
East CarolinaBetterApp State
ECU offense142nd of 366 · -4.3
Even
APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2
ECU defense158th of 366 · -3.4
ECUBig
APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6
Backcourt-0.7 · 2 players
ECUBig
Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 3 players
ECUSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 2 players
APPSmall
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestECU betterAPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
East Carolina
Guards
C. Medley34 min · TRB. Blaine29 min · TRT. Best6 min · TRA. McCulloughNewM. PandovNew
Forwards
K. Watson32 min · TRK. Cooper26 min · TRJ. Woodard17 minJ. BuchananNewD. QuinnNewD. Creasy-QuirindoongoNew
Centers
E. DeLaurier15 minM. KlitschkoNewM. HintonNew
App State
Guards
H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew
Forwards
C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew
Centers
R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ECUAPP
Scoring
71.5 #259Points per game69.3 #295
1.02 #305Points per possession1.08 #187
70.0 #116Pace (possessions)64.3 #358
Shooting
46.4 #346Effective FG%49.9 #240
29.3 #3503-point %30.4 #335
31.1 #3373-point attempt rate45.9 #48
39.2 #75Free throw rate39.1 #77
Possessions
17.1 #208Turnover rate15.3 #87
33.4 #79Offensive rebound rate32.0 #123
11.8 #301Assists per game11.4 #318
Defense
77.7 #262Points allowed67.4 #25
1.11 #246Points allowed per possession1.05 #87
52.3 #229Opponent effective FG%47.5 #33
34.9 #245Opponent 3-point %32.2 #71
16.3 #205Turnovers forced14.0 #336
67.5 #282Defensive rebound rate71.0 #106
6.5 #177Steals per game4.6 #351
4.0 #74Blocks per game3.4 #155
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

East Carolina

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UAB83–90
  • Lvs Tulsa66–93
  • Wvs Memphis84–68
  • W@ UTSA82–81
  • L@ Charlotte56–68

A week or more of rest.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss73–86
  • L@ Texas St57–60
  • Wvs GA Southern89–74
  • Lvs Marshall93–94
  • L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.