1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. USC vs TTU
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

USC Trojans vs Texas Tech Red Raiders

Dickies Arena · Neutral site
#36USCUSC AP #21
vs
#12TTUTexas Tech AP #19
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USCThis seasonTTU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TTU 84–76 · win probability TTU 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TTU has more of the edges

USC 1, TTU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USC 44.2, TTU 27.7. Allowed: USC 33.4, TTU 31.4
TTUBig
Three-pointers
USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%; TTU hits 39.1% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 34.1% and 47.6% of their shots
TTUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USC 50.4 and allows 49.7; TTU 56.1 and allows 49.7
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: USC plays 72.4 a game (25th fastest), TTU 68.2 (222nd). Faster games mean more points
TTUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USC 32.4%, TTU 33.3%. Defensive: USC 67.8%, TTU 69.4%
Even
TTU offense vs USC defense
Offense 12th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USC 64%, TTU 45%. Transfers in: USC 6, TTU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
USC has played the 42nd-hardest schedule, TTU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
USC offense vs TTU defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USC 17.4%, TTU 15.8%. Forced: USC 16.4%, TTU 14.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TTU -8.1—
Total—159.6—
Projected score—USC 75.7 · TTU 83.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTTU -4.7—
1H total74.5—
1H projected scoreUSC 34.9 · TTU 39.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: USC 0, Texas Tech 0, even 5
USCBetterTexas Tech
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
Even
G C. Davis TR20.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.6 ast Score 91
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
Even
G D. Atwell13.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 88
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
Even
G D. Gibbs-Lawhorn TR20.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.5 ast Score 95
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
Even
F J. Toppin21.8 pts · 10.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 100
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
Even
F D. Williams TR14 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
USCBetterTexas Tech
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
Even
TTU defense12th of 366 · +6.6
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
Even
TTU offense12th of 366 · +9.9
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
USCBig
Backcourt+10.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
TTUBig
Frontcourt+10.8 · 2 players
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
TTUBig
Bench+7.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUSC betterTTU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
Texas Tech
Guards
C. Davis39 min · TRD. Atwell35 minD. Gibbs-Lawhorn35 min · TRD. Dennis24 min · TRD. SpearNewA. BarrettNew
Forwards
J. Toppin35 minD. Williams30 min · TRJ. Stillwell28 min · TRJ. Moseley14 minM. Akuentok6 minL. HooverNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USCTTU
Scoring
77.8 #97Points per game80.3 #62
1.07 #199Points per possession1.18 #35
72.4 #25Pace (possessions)68.2 #222
Shooting
50.4 #225Effective FG%56.1 #21
31.7 #2993-point %39.1 #4
34.1 #2923-point attempt rate47.6 #29
44.2 #8Free throw rate27.7 #347
Possessions
17.4 #228Turnover rate15.8 #123
32.4 #113Offensive rebound rate33.3 #82
14.9 #92Assists per game15.7 #59
Defense
78.4 #277Points allowed73.1 #134
1.08 #173Points allowed per possession1.07 #138
49.7 #89Opponent effective FG%49.7 #86
30.9 #31Opponent 3-point %32.1 #67
16.4 #198Turnovers forced14.8 #305
67.8 #269Defensive rebound rate69.4 #186
6.2 #217Steals per game6.0 #239
5.5 #8Blocks per game3.8 #103
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.

Texas Tech

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alabama65–90
  • Wvs Akron91–71
  • Lvs Iowa State53–75
  • L@ BYU76–82
  • Lvs TCU65–73

A week or more of rest.