1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. FSU @ TENN
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Florida State Seminoles at Tennessee Volunteers

Food City Center · at Tennessee
#81FSUFlorida St
@
#7TENNTennessee AP #8
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FSUThis seasonTENN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TENN 87–67 · win probability TENN 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

FSU 1, TENN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TENNBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FSU 30.8%, TENN 44.7%. Defensive: FSU 65.9%, TENN 72.2%
FSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FSU 15.2%, TENN 17.4%. Forced: FSU 19.0%, TENN 16.1%
TENNBig
Three-pointers
FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%; TENN hits 33.4% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 50.6% and 32.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: FSU plays 71.8 a game (41st fastest), TENN 68.1 (226th). Faster games mean more points
TENNSmall
TENN offense vs FSU defense
Offense 9th of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
TENNSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2; TENN 51.4 and allows 47.8
Context
Schedule so far
FSU has played the 73rd-hardest schedule, TENN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TENNSmall
FSU offense vs TENN defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings
TENNSmall
Home court
TENN at home. This season: TENN 0-0 at home, FSU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FSU 34.7, TENN 37.4. Allowed: FSU 32.7, TENN 36.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FSU 9%, TENN 13%. Transfers in: FSU 5, TENN 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TENN -20.0—
Total—154.8—
Projected score—FSU 67.4 · TENN 87.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTENN -11.8—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreFSU 30.3 · TENN 42—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Tennessee has the better starters

Position by position: Florida St 0, Tennessee 2, even 3
Florida StBetterTennessee
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
Even
G J. Harris TR21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 99
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
Even
G T. Lundblade TR15.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
Even
G D. Dai Ames TR17 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 83
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
TENNSmall
F B. Lue TR10.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 53
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
TENNSmall
C M. Rubin TR11.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
Florida StBetterTennessee
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
TENNSmall
TENN defense9th of 366 · +8.2
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
TENNSmall
TENN offense9th of 366 · +10.4
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
TENNBig
Backcourt+8.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
TENNSmall
Frontcourt+3.1 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
TENNBig
Bench+11.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestFSU betterTENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
Tennessee
Guards
J. Harris35 min · TRT. Lundblade35 min · TRD. Dai Ames32 min · TRJ. Haralson27 min · TRT. Hill25 min · TRT. Henderson7 min
Forwards
B. Lue27 min · TRJ. Washington21 min · TRD. Brown15 minC. Fermin13 min · TRC. WashingtonNewR. ScottNew
Centers
M. Rubin30 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FSUTENN
Scoring
80.4 #58Points per game78.8 #81
1.12 #101Points per possession1.16 #49
71.8 #41Pace (possessions)68.1 #226
Shooting
52.3 #132Effective FG%51.4 #174
33.1 #2263-point %33.4 #201
50.6 #133-point attempt rate32.1 #328
34.7 #191Free throw rate37.4 #115
Possessions
15.2 #80Turnover rate17.4 #227
30.8 #170Offensive rebound rate44.7 #1
14.3 #124Assists per game17.1 #24
Defense
77.9 #264Points allowed69.6 #58
1.08 #178Points allowed per possession1.02 #43
52.2 #226Opponent effective FG%47.8 #37
34.6 #228Opponent 3-point %30.5 #21
19.0 #51Turnovers forced16.1 #215
65.9 #319Defensive rebound rate72.2 #61
7.9 #44Steals per game7.3 #101
3.9 #84Blocks per game3.7 #114
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan62–95
  • Wvs Iowa State76–62
  • Wvs Virginia79–72
  • Wvs Miami OH78–56
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–75

A week or more of rest.