Columbia Lions at St. John's Red Storm: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 6:30 PM ETCarnesecca Arena · at St John's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Columbia and St John's
COLU	This season	SJU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 92–61 · win probability SJU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

COLU 2, SJU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SJUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COLU 19.3%, SJU 14.4%. Forced: COLU 15.1%, SJU 19.1%

SJUBig

SJU offense vs COLU defense

Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 198th, on the model’s ratings

SJUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: COLU 28.6, SJU 40.2. Allowed: COLU 33.5, SJU 31.8

Context

Schedule so far

COLU has played the 169th-hardest schedule, SJU the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SJUBig

COLU offense vs SJU defense

Offense 163rd of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: COLU plays 67.8 a game (237th fastest), SJU 70.8 (82nd). Faster games mean more points

COLUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COLU 61%, SJU 22%. Transfers in: COLU 1, SJU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

COLUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COLU 36.0%, SJU 35.2%. Defensive: COLU 72.8%, SJU 70.1%

SJUSmall

Home court

SJU at home. This season: SJU 0-0 at home, COLU 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

COLU hits 35.9% and allows 35.2%; SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 37.5% and 35.2% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: COLU 53.5 and allows 51.2; SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SJU -30.6	—
Total	—	152.6	—
Projected score	—	COLU 61 · SJU 91.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJU -18.0	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	COLU 26.6 · SJU 44.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLU WLWWL	14-12	54%	7-7	—
SJU WWWLW	22-15	59%	11-9	—

Venue/role: COLU away; SJU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLU OUOUO	14-12	54%	14-12
SJU OUUUO	14-23	38%	30-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SJU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Columbia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	@ NHVN	W71–53WU
Dec 8	vs HOF	W72–70LU
Dec 11	vs ARMY	No recent meeting

St John's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs ARIZ	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs WAG	W66–45LU
Dec 12	vs ALA	L96–103LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Columbia

26 games played

Straight up

14-12

54% wins

Against the spread

14-12

54% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-12

54% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1254%

W L W W W W W W W L L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1254%

W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1254%

U U O U O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsBU	W 54-49	-4.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 21	@LEH	W 82-67	-2.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 23	vsLONG	W 95-70	-3.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FAIR	W 106-77	-3.5	W +25.5	150.5	O 183
Dec 3	vsHOF	W 72-70	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 6	vsUALB	W 93-65	-13.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 9	@STBK	L 73-77	-4.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 21	@CAL	L 56-74	+8.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 130
Dec 28	@UNF	W 90-82	-11.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 172
Jan 5	@COR	W 104-99	+3.5	W +8.5	170.5	O 203
Jan 10	vsHARV	L 54-79	-5.5	L −30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	@BRWN	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	@YALE	L 74-91	+9.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 165
Jan 24	@DART	W 79-69	-2.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 148
Jan 30	vsPENN	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	vsPRIN	L 68-80	-5.5	L −17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsCOR	L 67-88	+1.5	L −19.5	171.5	U 155
Feb 13	@PENN	L 67-76	+1.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	@PRIN	W 75-65	-1.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 21	vsDART	L 63-64	-6.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Feb 27	vsBRWN	W 80-62	-5.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsYALE	L 54-60	+6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 114
Mar 6	@HARV	L 71-81	+4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

W 54-49

+0.5

LEH

W 82-67

+12.5

LONG

W 95-70

+21.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+25.5

HOF

W 72-70

−1.5

UALB

W 93-65

+14.5

STBK

L 73-77

−8.5

CAL

L 56-74

−9.5

UNF

W 90-82

−3.5

COR

W 104-99

+8.5

HARV

L 54-79

−30.5

BRWN

L 80-86

−8.5

YALE

L 74-91

−7.5

DART

W 79-69

+7.5

PENN

W 72-67

+0.5

PRIN

L 68-80

−17.5

COR

L 67-88

−19.5

PENN

L 67-76

−7.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+8.5

DART

L 63-64

−7.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+12.5

YALE

L 54-60

+0.5

HARV

L 71-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

W 54-49

−41.5

LEH

W 82-67

+5.5

LONG

W 95-70

+11.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+32.5

HOF

W 72-70

−2.5

UALB

W 93-65

+13.5

STBK

L 73-77

+3.5

CAL

L 56-74

−23.5

UNF

W 90-82

+9.5

COR

W 104-99

+32.5

HARV

L 54-79

−12.5

BRWN

L 80-86

+22.5

YALE

L 74-91

+14.5

DART

W 79-69

−8.5

PENN

W 72-67

−14.5

PRIN

L 68-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-88

−16.5

PENN

L 67-76

−5.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+2.5

DART

L 63-64

−23.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+1.5

YALE

L 54-60

−33.5

HARV

L 71-81

+15.5

over 14under 12avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

St John's

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-23

38% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W L W W L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W W W W L L W W W L W L W L W L W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2338%

O O U U O O U U U U U U O U U O O O U O O U O O U U U U U U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUIN	W 108-74	-26.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 182
Nov 8	vsALA	L 96-103	-4.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 15	vsW&M	W 93-60	-28.5	W +4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 20	vsBUCK	W 97-49	-28.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsISU	L 82-83	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 25	vsBAY	W 96-81	-5.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsAUB	L 74-85	-4.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 6	vsMISS	W 63-58	-13.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsIONA	W 91-64	-28.5	L −1.5	159.5	U 155
Dec 16	vsDEP	W 79-66	-19.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 20	vsUK	L 66-78	+1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsHARV	W 85-59	-26.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 31	@GTWN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 3	vsPROV	L 71-77	-14.5	L −20.5	166.5	U 148
Jan 6	@BTLR	W 84-70	-4.5	W +9.5	162.5	U 154
Jan 10	@CREI	W 90-73	-2.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsMARQ	W 92-68	-15.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 17	@VILL	W 86-79	-2.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 165
Jan 20	vsHALL	W 65-60	-11.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 24	@XAV	W 88-83	-8.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 171
Jan 28	vsBTLR	W 92-70	-12.5	W +9.5	158.5	O 162
Feb 3	@DEP	W 68-56	-9.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 6	vsCONN	W 81-72	+1.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 9	vsXAV	W 87-82	-16.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 14	@PROV	W 79-69	-6.5	W +3.5	167.5	U 148
Feb 18	@MARQ	W 76-70	-8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 146
Feb 21	vsCREI	W 81-52	-12.5	W +16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	@CONN	L 40-72	+5.5	L −26.5	145.5	U 112
Feb 28	vsVILL	W 89-57	-7.5	W +24.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 3	vsGTWN	W 72-69	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 141
Mar 6	@HALL	W 72-65	-5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 12	vsPROV	W 85-72	-11.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 157
Mar 13	vsHALL	W 78-68	-8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 146
Mar 14	vsCONN	W 72-52	+2.5	W +22.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsUNI	W 79-53	-10.5	W +15.5	133.5	U 132
Mar 22	vsKU	W 67-65	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 132
Mar 27	vsDUKE	L 75-80	+6.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+7.5

ALA

L 96-103

−11.5

W&M

W 93-60

+4.5

BUCK

W 97-49

+19.5

ISU

L 82-83

+1.5

BAY

W 96-81

+9.5

AUB

L 74-85

−15.5

MISS

W 63-58

−8.5

IONA

W 91-64

−1.5

DEP

W 79-66

−6.5

L 66-78

−10.5

HARV

W 85-59

−0.5

GTWN

W 95-83

+3.5

PROV

L 71-77

−20.5

BTLR

W 84-70

+9.5

CREI

W 90-73

+14.5

MARQ

W 92-68

+8.5

VILL

W 86-79

+4.5

HALL

W 65-60

−6.5

XAV

W 88-83

−3.5

BTLR

W 92-70

+9.5

DEP

W 68-56

+2.5

CONN

W 81-72

+10.5

XAV

W 87-82

−11.5

PROV

W 79-69

+3.5

MARQ

W 76-70

−2.5

CREI

W 81-52

+16.5

CONN

L 40-72

−26.5

VILL

W 89-57

+24.5

GTWN

W 72-69

−12.5

HALL

W 72-65

+1.5

PROV

W 85-72

+1.5

HALL

W 78-68

+1.5

CONN

W 72-52

+22.5

UNI

W 79-53

+15.5

W 67-65

−1.5

DUKE

L 75-80

+1.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+25.5

ALA

L 96-103

+26.5

W&M

W 93-60

−26.5

BUCK

W 97-49

−12.5

ISU

L 82-83

+6.5

BAY

W 96-81

+17.5

AUB

L 74-85

−7.5

MISS

W 63-58

−30.5

IONA

W 91-64

−4.5

DEP

W 79-66

−2.5

L 66-78

−10.5

HARV

W 85-59

−1.5

GTWN

W 95-83

+25.5

PROV

L 71-77

−18.5

BTLR

W 84-70

−8.5

CREI

W 90-73

+10.5

MARQ

W 92-68

+4.5

VILL

W 86-79

+17.5

HALL

W 65-60

−20.5

XAV

W 88-83

+11.5

BTLR

W 92-70

+3.5

DEP

W 68-56

−21.5

CONN

W 81-72

+9.5

XAV

W 87-82

+9.5

PROV

W 79-69

−19.5

MARQ

W 76-70

−11.5

CREI

W 81-52

−23.5

CONN

L 40-72

−33.5

VILL

W 89-57

−1.5

GTWN

W 72-69

−7.5

HALL

W 72-65

−1.5

PROV

W 85-72

−1.5

HALL

W 78-68

+10.5

CONN

W 72-52

−15.5

UNI

W 79-53

−1.5

W 67-65

−12.5

DUKE

L 75-80

+14.5

over 14under 23avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: Columbia 0, St John's 5, even 0

ColumbiaBetterSt John's

G M. Franklin9.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 48

SJUBig

G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96

G G. O'Keefe7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 45

SJUBig

G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93

G H. Sanders4.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 38

SJUBig

F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98

F M. Ritter6.9 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21

SJUBig

F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92

F C. Igoe8.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 72

SJUSmall

F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

ColumbiaBetterSt John's

COLU offense163rd of 366 · -4.9

SJUBig

SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0

COLU defense198th of 366 · -4.8

SJUBig

SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

SJUBig

Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players

SJUBig

Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCOLU betterSJU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Columbia

Guards

M. Franklin24 minG. O'Keefe21 minH. Sanders15 minJ. Cunningham4 minD. VesseyNewN. RomanelliNew

Forwards

M. Ritter25 minC. Igoe20 minD. Langford11 min · TRR. Nweke8 minL. Coleman4 minN. ClarksonNew

St John's

Guards

T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min

Forwards

K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew

Centers

T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COLU74.9 #167

SJU80.9 #45

Points per possession

COLU1.10 #130

SJU1.14 #68

Pace (possessions)

COLU67.8 #237

SJU70.8 #82

Shooting

Effective FG%

COLU53.5 #83

SJU51.0 #192

3-point %

COLU35.9 #61

SJU33.5 #197

3-point attempt rate

COLU37.5 #221

SJU35.2 #272

Free throw rate

COLU28.6 #337

SJU40.2 #57

Possessions

Turnover rate

COLU19.3 #332

SJU14.4 #38

Offensive rebound rate

COLU36.0 #23

SJU35.2 #43

Assists per game

COLU15.0 #90

SJU16.1 #44

Defense

Points allowed

COLU73.5 #145

SJU69.7 #59

Points allowed per possession

COLU1.09 #188

SJU0.98 #15

Opponent effective FG%

COLU51.2 #168

SJU47.5 #32

Opponent 3-point %

COLU35.2 #258

SJU31.3 #39

Turnovers forced

COLU15.1 #282

SJU19.1 #46

Defensive rebound rate

COLU72.8 #42

SJU70.1 #154

Steals per game

COLU5.7 #270

SJU7.7 #58

Blocks per game

COLU3.0 #235

SJU4.8 #22

COLU		SJU
Scoring
74.9 #167	Points per game	80.9 #45
1.10 #130	Points per possession	1.14 #68
67.8 #237	Pace (possessions)	70.8 #82
Shooting
53.5 #83	Effective FG%	51.0 #192
35.9 #61	3-point %	33.5 #197
37.5 #221	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #272
28.6 #337	Free throw rate	40.2 #57
Possessions
19.3 #332	Turnover rate	14.4 #38
36.0 #23	Offensive rebound rate	35.2 #43
15.0 #90	Assists per game	16.1 #44
Defense
73.5 #145	Points allowed	69.7 #59
1.09 #188	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #15
51.2 #168	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #32
35.2 #258	Opponent 3-point %	31.3 #39
15.1 #282	Turnovers forced	19.1 #46
72.8 #42	Defensive rebound rate	70.1 #154
5.7 #270	Steals per game	7.7 #58
3.0 #235	Blocks per game	4.8 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Columbia

14-12 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Harvard71–81
Lvs Yale54–60
Wvs Brown80–62
Lvs Dartmouth63–64
W@ Princeton75–65

A week or more of rest.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke75–80
Wvs Kansas67–65
Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
Wvs UConn72–52
Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.

Columbia Lions at St. John's Red Storm

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Columbia

St John's

St John's has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Columbia

St John's