UNC Greensboro Spartans at VMI Keydets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 6:00 PM ETCameron Hall · at VMI · Conference game

#320VMIVMI

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNC Greensboro and VMI
UNCG	This season	VMI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VMI 76–76 · win probability VMI 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCG has more of the edges

UNCG 5, VMI 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCGBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNCG 42.0, VMI 30.6. Allowed: UNCG 30.6, VMI 34.6

UNCGBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNCG 28.1%, VMI 25.6%. Defensive: UNCG 71.0%, VMI 62.8%

VMISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNCG 5%, VMI 59%. Transfers in: UNCG 6, VMI 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNCGSmall

Three-pointers

UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%; VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 40.2% and 53.6% of their shots

UNCGSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2; VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0

UNCGSmall

UNCG offense vs VMI defense

Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings

VMISmall

Home court

VMI at home. This season: VMI 0-0 at home, UNCG 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UNCG plays 69.3 a game (157th fastest), VMI 67.6 (251st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNCG 15.0%, VMI 15.3%. Forced: UNCG 13.6%, VMI 15.7%

Even

VMI offense vs UNCG defense

Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UNCG has played the 256th-hardest schedule, VMI the 253rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VMI -0.1	—
Total	—	151.2	—
Projected score	—	UNCG 75.5 · VMI 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCG -0.1	—
1H total	70.7	—
1H projected score	UNCG 35.4 · VMI 35.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCG WLWWL	13-19	41%	5-8	—
VMI WLLWL	9-20	31%	2-9	—

Venue/role: UNCG away; VMI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCG OOUUO	22-10	69%	13-19
VMI UUUOU	13-16	45%	3-26

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
VMI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNC Greensboro

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs FUR	L75–81LO
Dec 11	@ NCSU	L64–110LO
Dec 15	@ HALL	No recent meeting

VMI

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs ETSU	L70–87LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22

UNCG 10–2 VMIUNCG leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · UNCG has won the last 3 meetings · UNCG 7-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	VMI 70 vs UNCG 84	UNCG -7.5	UNCG W
Feb 11, 2025-26	VMI 71 @ UNCG 92	UNCG -8.5	UNCG W
Jan 21, 2025-26	UNCG 85 @ VMI 78	VMI +2.5	UNCG W
Mar 8, 2024-25	VMI 64 vs UNCG 57	UNCG -9.5	VMI W
Feb 12, 2024-25	VMI 54 @ UNCG 80	UNCG -8.5	UNCG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Greensboro

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-10

69% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1069%

O O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@KSU	L 64-93	+18.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsELON	L 90-92	-4.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@NCSU	L 64-110	+30.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsAPSU	L 63-69	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 20	@QUC	L 94-101	+7.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	vsYSU	W 68-62	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsDEL	L 60-73	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsM-OH	L 71-82	+10.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 2	vsUNCA	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@ECU	W 82-78	+7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 16	vsNCAT	L 65-71	-6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 1	vsUTC	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSAM	W 89-82	+2.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	@WOF	L 85-97	+7.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 182
Jan 10	@ETSU	L 60-86	+11.5	L −14.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 15	vsCIT	W 69-66	-9.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsMER	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 194
Jan 21	@VMI	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 23	vsFUR	L 66-89	+4.5	L −18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	@MER	L 77-95	+10.5	L −7.5	158.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CIT	L 66-71	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 4	vsWCU	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 159
Feb 8	@FUR	W 67-64	+10.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsVMI	W 92-71	-8.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsWOF	W 99-89	+2.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 188
Feb 18	@WCU	L 77-91	+5.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 21	vsETSU	L 75-87	+6.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 26	@UTC	W 85-80	+4.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 165
Feb 28	@SAM	L 78-87	+8.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsVMI	W 84-70	-7.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 154
Mar 7	vsWOF	W 75-72	+4.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 147
Mar 8	vsFUR	L 75-81	+5.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

−10.5

ELON

L 90-92

−6.5

NCSU

L 64-110

−15.5

APSU

L 63-69

−7.5

QUC

L 94-101

+0.5

YSU

W 68-62

+11.5

DEL

L 60-73

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-82

−0.5

UNCA

L 77-82

−0.5

ECU

W 82-78

+11.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−12.5

UTC

W 77-72

+7.5

SAM

W 89-82

+9.5

WOF

L 85-97

−4.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-66

−6.5

MER

L 92-102

−4.5

VMI

W 85-78

+4.5

FUR

L 66-89

−18.5

MER

L 77-95

−7.5

CIT

L 66-71

−7.5

WCU

W 81-78

+4.5

FUR

W 67-64

+13.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+12.5

WCU

L 77-91

−8.5

ETSU

L 75-87

−5.5

UTC

W 85-80

+9.5

SAM

L 78-87

−0.5

VMI

W 84-70

+6.5

WOF

W 75-72

+7.5

FUR

L 75-81

−0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

+8.5

ELON

L 90-92

+39.5

NCSU

L 64-110

+20.5

APSU

L 63-69

−13.5

QUC

L 94-101

+44.5

YSU

W 68-62

−22.5

DEL

L 60-73

−9.5

M-OH

L 71-82

+2.5

UNCA

L 77-82

+15.5

ECU

W 82-78

+20.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−11.5

UTC

W 77-72

+1.5

SAM

W 89-82

+19.5

WOF

L 85-97

+28.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−2.5

CIT

W 69-66

−13.5

MER

L 92-102

+38.5

VMI

W 85-78

+11.5

FUR

L 66-89

+4.5

MER

L 77-95

+13.5

CIT

L 66-71

−10.5

WCU

W 81-78

+3.5

FUR

W 67-64

−18.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+33.5

WCU

L 77-91

+12.5

ETSU

L 75-87

+13.5

UTC

W 85-80

+7.5

SAM

L 78-87

+8.5

VMI

W 84-70

−0.5

WOF

W 75-72

−8.5

FUR

L 75-81

+8.5

over 22under 10avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

VMI

29 games played

Straight up

3-26

10% wins

Against the spread

9-20

31% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2610%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

17 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-2031%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1645%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsMER	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsCIT	L 68-82	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNCG	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 24	@WCU	L 58-88	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@CIT	L 56-80	+2.5	L −21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	@MER	L 81-95	+18.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsWOF	L 67-81	+8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsETSU	L 70-87	+14.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	@UNCG	L 71-92	+8.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsFUR	L 72-90	+11.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	@WOF	L 76-82	+13.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsWCU	L 62-81	+8.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 26	@SAM	L 61-80	+17.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	@UTC	L 79-86	+11.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsUNCG	L 70-84	+7.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

MER

L 67-77

−1.5

CIT

L 68-82

−20.5

UNCG

L 78-85

−4.5

WCU

L 58-88

−21.5

CIT

L 56-80

−21.5

MER

L 81-95

+4.5

WOF

L 67-81

−5.5

ETSU

L 70-87

−2.5

UNCG

L 71-92

−12.5

FUR

L 72-90

−6.5

WOF

L 76-82

+7.5

WCU

L 62-81

−10.5

SAM

L 61-80

−1.5

UTC

L 79-86

+4.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 20avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

MER

L 67-77

−9.5

CIT

L 68-82

+6.5

UNCG

L 78-85

+11.5

WCU

L 58-88

−6.5

CIT

L 56-80

−6.5

MER

L 81-95

+22.5

WOF

L 67-81

−1.5

ETSU

L 70-87

+13.5

UNCG

L 71-92

+12.5

FUR

L 72-90

+13.5

WOF

L 76-82

−0.5

WCU

L 62-81

−11.5

SAM

L 61-80

−14.5

UTC

L 79-86

+10.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−0.5

over 13under 16avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

VMI has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Greensboro 0, VMI 1, even 4

UNC GreensboroBetterVMI

G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47

Even

G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9

Even

G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

VMIBig

F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75

F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2

F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

UNC GreensboroBetterVMI

UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0

UNCGSmall

VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1

UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7

Even

VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUNCG betterVMI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNC Greensboro

Guards

B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew

Forwards

Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew

VMI

Guards

A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew

Forwards

T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNCG76.6 #128

VMI68.5 #306

Points per possession

UNCG1.11 #125

VMI1.01 #311

Pace (possessions)

UNCG69.3 #157

VMI67.6 #251

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNCG52.0 #146

VMI47.5 #325

3-point %

UNCG35.6 #80

VMI31.5 #306

3-point attempt rate

UNCG40.2 #165

VMI53.6 #2

Free throw rate

UNCG42.0 #31

VMI30.6 #293

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNCG15.0 #63

VMI15.3 #88

Offensive rebound rate

UNCG28.1 #259

VMI25.6 #330

Assists per game

UNCG12.1 #283

VMI11.6 #309

Defense

Points allowed

UNCG81.9 #341

VMI83.2 #348

Points allowed per possession

UNCG1.18 #347

VMI1.23 #362

Opponent effective FG%

UNCG56.2 #347

VMI57.0 #357

Opponent 3-point %

UNCG38.0 #357

VMI36.5 #327

Turnovers forced

UNCG13.6 #343

VMI15.7 #239

Defensive rebound rate

UNCG71.0 #104

VMI62.8 #360

Steals per game

UNCG5.5 #301

VMI6.6 #160

Blocks per game

UNCG1.9 #350

VMI2.0 #343

UNCG		VMI
Scoring
76.6 #128	Points per game	68.5 #306
1.11 #125	Points per possession	1.01 #311
69.3 #157	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #251
Shooting
52.0 #146	Effective FG%	47.5 #325
35.6 #80	3-point %	31.5 #306
40.2 #165	3-point attempt rate	53.6 #2
42.0 #31	Free throw rate	30.6 #293
Possessions
15.0 #63	Turnover rate	15.3 #88
28.1 #259	Offensive rebound rate	25.6 #330
12.1 #283	Assists per game	11.6 #309
Defense
81.9 #341	Points allowed	83.2 #348
1.18 #347	Points allowed per possession	1.23 #362
56.2 #347	Opponent effective FG%	57.0 #357
38.0 #357	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #327
13.6 #343	Turnovers forced	15.7 #239
71.0 #104	Defensive rebound rate	62.8 #360
5.5 #301	Steals per game	6.6 #160
1.9 #350	Blocks per game	2.0 #343

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman75–81
Wvs Wofford75–72
Wvs VMI84–70
L@ Samford78–87
W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
L@ Chattanooga79–86
L@ Samford61–80
Lvs W Carolina62–81
L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

UNC Greensboro Spartans at VMI Keydets

What could decide it: UNCG has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Greensboro

VMI

VMI has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UNC Greensboro

VMI