NC State Wolfpack vs Tennessee Volunteers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 7:00 PM ETBridgestone Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: NC State and Tennessee
NCSU	This season	TENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TENN 84–72 · win probability TENN 85%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

NCSU 1, TENN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TENNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NCSU 28.2%, TENN 44.7%. Defensive: NCSU 69.5%, TENN 72.2%

NCSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NCSU 13.1%, TENN 17.4%. Forced: NCSU 18.2%, TENN 16.1%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NCSU plays 70.2 a game (103rd fastest), TENN 68.1 (226th). Faster games mean more points

TENNSmall

TENN offense vs NCSU defense

Offense 9th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NCSU has played the 51st-hardest schedule, TENN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7; TENN 51.4 and allows 47.8

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NCSU 35.1, TENN 37.4. Allowed: NCSU 36.9, TENN 36.3

Even

NCSU offense vs TENN defense

Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%; TENN hits 33.4% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 43.4% and 32.1% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NCSU 28%, TENN 13%. Transfers in: NCSU 8, TENN 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TENN -11.7	—
Total	—	156.3	—
Projected score	—	NCSU 72.3 · TENN 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TENN -6.8	—
1H total	73.0	—
1H projected score	NCSU 33.1 · TENN 39.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NCSU LLWLL	15-19	44%	3-4	—
TENN LWWWL	17-20	46%	6-4	—

Venue/role: NCSU neutral site; TENN neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOOOU	21-13	62%	20-14
TENN UUOUO	18-19	49%	25-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
TENN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	vs UNCG	W110–64WO
Dec 15	vs UNC	W82–58WU

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	@ PUR	L66–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NCSU 0–1 TENNTENN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NCSU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2023-24	NCSU 70 vs TENN 79	TENN -9.5	NCSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC State

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-13

62% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

W W W W L W L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1944%

W W W L L W L L L W L W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1362%

O O O U O U O U U U O O U U U O O U O O O O O O O U U U O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsBOIS	W 81-70	-6.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTEX	L 97-102	-1.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	@AUB	L 73-83	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	vsUNCA	W 75-63	-28.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 138
Dec 10	vsLIB	W 85-45	-12.5	W +27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 13	vsKU	L 76-77	-1.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 153
Dec 17	vsTXSO	W 108-72	-34.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 21	vsMISS	W 76-62	-7.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 31	vsWAKE	W 70-57	-10.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsUVA	L 61-76	-4.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 6	@BC	W 79-71	-11.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 10	@FSU	W 113-69	-4.5	W +39.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 17	vsGT	L 74-78	-17.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 20	@CLEM	W 80-76	+2.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 24	@PITT	W 81-72	-6.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsSYR	W 88-68	-10.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	@WAKE	W 96-78	-5.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 174
Feb 3	@SMU	W 84-83	-1.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 167
Feb 7	vsVT	W 82-73	-10.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 155
Feb 9	@LOU	L 77-118	+6.5	L −34.5	161.5	O 195
Feb 14	vsMIA	L 76-77	-5.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 153
Feb 17	vsUNC	W 82-58	-8.5	W +15.5	156.5	U 140
Feb 24	@UVA	L 61-90	+6.5	L −22.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 28	@ND	L 90-96	-6.5	L −12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 2	vsDUKE	L 64-93	+8.5	L −20.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 7	vsSTAN	L 84-85	-9.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsPITT	W 98-88	-8.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 186
Mar 12	vsUVA	L 74-81	+6.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 155
Mar 17	vsTEX	L 66-68	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

BOIS

W 81-70

+4.5

TEX

L 97-102

−6.5

AUB

L 73-83

−4.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−16.5

LIB

W 85-45

+27.5

L 76-77

−2.5

TXSO

W 108-72

+1.5

MISS

W 76-62

+6.5

WAKE

W 70-57

+2.5

UVA

L 61-76

−19.5

W 79-71

−3.5

FSU

W 113-69

+39.5

L 74-78

−21.5

CLEM

W 80-76

+6.5

PITT

W 81-72

+2.5

SYR

W 88-68

+9.5

WAKE

W 96-78

+12.5

SMU

W 84-83

−0.5

W 82-73

−1.5

LOU

L 77-118

−34.5

MIA

L 76-77

−6.5

UNC

W 82-58

+15.5

UVA

L 61-90

−22.5

L 90-96

−12.5

DUKE

L 64-93

−20.5

STAN

L 84-85

−10.5

PITT

W 98-88

+1.5

UVA

L 74-81

−0.5

TEX

L 66-68

−3.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

BOIS

W 81-70

−1.5

TEX

L 97-102

+37.5

AUB

L 73-83

−6.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−17.5

LIB

W 85-45

−19.5

L 76-77

+4.5

TXSO

W 108-72

+27.5

MISS

W 76-62

−10.5

WAKE

W 70-57

−32.5

UVA

L 61-76

−14.5

W 79-71

+8.5

FSU

W 113-69

+21.5

L 74-78

−2.5

CLEM

W 80-76

+13.5

PITT

W 81-72

+8.5

SYR

W 88-68

+4.5

WAKE

W 96-78

+17.5

SMU

W 84-83

+7.5

W 82-73

+0.5

LOU

L 77-118

+33.5

MIA

L 76-77

−4.5

UNC

W 82-58

−16.5

UVA

L 61-90

−0.5

L 90-96

+32.5

DUKE

L 64-93

+6.5

STAN

L 84-85

+16.5

PITT

W 98-88

+41.5

UVA

L 74-81

+1.5

TEX

L 66-68

−23.5

over 21under 13avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tennessee

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W L W W W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

L W L L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

U O O O U O O O U U U U O O O O O O U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMER	W 76-61	-28.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsNKU	W 95-56	-27.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	vsUNF	W 99-66	-41.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 17	vsRICE	W 91-66	-26.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 20	vsTNST	W 89-60	-31.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsRUTG	W 85-60	-14.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsHOU	W 76-73	+2.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsKU	L 76-81	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	@SYR	L 60-62	-7.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsILL	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 16	vsLOU	W 83-62	-4.5	W +16.5	156.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsGWEB	W 94-52	-42.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 30	vsSCST	W 105-54	-44.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	@ARK	L 75-86	-1.5	L −12.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 6	vsTEX	W 85-71	-12.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 156
Jan 10	@FLA	L 67-91	+4.5	L −19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	vsTA&M	W 87-82	-11.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsUK	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 24	@ALA	W 79-73	+4.5	W +10.5	167.5	U 152
Jan 28	@UGA	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 31	vsAUB	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 146
Feb 3	vsMISS	W 84-66	-12.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 150
Feb 7	@UK	L 71-74	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 11	@MSST	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsLSU	W 73-63	-14.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 18	vsOU	W 89-66	-11.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	@VAN	W 69-65	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 24	@MIZ	L 69-73	-3.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 28	vsALA	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 140
Mar 3	@SC	W 78-59	-10.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsVAN	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 12	vsAUB	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 13	vsVAN	L 68-75	-1.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 20	vsM-OH	W 78-56	-12.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 22	vsUVA	W 79-72	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 151
Mar 27	vsISU	W 76-62	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 138
Mar 29	vsMICH	L 62-95	+8.5	L −24.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−13.5

NKU

W 95-56

+11.5

UNF

W 99-66

−8.5

RICE

W 91-66

−1.5

TNST

W 89-60

−2.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+10.5

HOU

W 76-73

+5.5

L 76-81

−12.5

SYR

L 60-62

−9.5

ILL

L 62-75

−14.5

LOU

W 83-62

+16.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−0.5

SCST

W 105-54

+6.5

ARK

L 75-86

−12.5

TEX

W 85-71

+1.5

FLA

L 67-91

−19.5

TA&M

W 87-82

−6.5

L 78-80

−8.5

ALA

W 79-73

+10.5

UGA

W 86-85

−0.5

AUB

W 77-69

+2.5

MISS

W 84-66

+5.5

L 71-74

−1.5

MSST

W 73-64

+0.5

LSU

W 73-63

−4.5

W 89-66

+11.5

VAN

W 69-65

+6.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−7.5

ALA

L 69-71

−7.5

W 78-59

+8.5

VAN

L 82-86

−6.5

AUB

W 72-62

+4.5

VAN

L 68-75

−8.5

M-OH

W 78-56

+9.5

UVA

W 79-72

+5.5

ISU

W 76-62

+16.5

MICH

L 62-95

−24.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−6.5

NKU

W 95-56

+13.5

UNF

W 99-66

+9.5

RICE

W 91-66

+13.5

TNST

W 89-60

−8.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+3.5

HOU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 76-81

+16.5

SYR

L 60-62

−25.5

ILL

L 62-75

−12.5

LOU

W 83-62

−11.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−6.5

SCST

W 105-54

+11.5

ARK

L 75-86

+2.5

TEX

W 85-71

+2.5

FLA

L 67-91

+6.5

TA&M

W 87-82

+9.5

L 78-80

+12.5

ALA

W 79-73

−15.5

UGA

W 86-85

+13.5

AUB

W 77-69

−1.5

MISS

W 84-66

+10.5

L 71-74

−2.5

MSST

W 73-64

−10.5

LSU

W 73-63

−7.5

W 89-66

+5.5

VAN

W 69-65

−16.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−1.5

ALA

L 69-71

−22.5

W 78-59

−4.5

VAN

L 82-86

+21.5

AUB

W 72-62

−10.5

VAN

L 68-75

−4.5

M-OH

W 78-56

−14.5

UVA

W 79-72

+13.5

ISU

W 76-62

−1.5

MICH

L 62-95

+10.5

over 18under 19avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: NC State 2, Tennessee 2, even 1

NC StateBetterTennessee

G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83

TENNSmall

G J. Harris TR21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 99

G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87

NCSUSmall

G T. Lundblade TR15.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63

G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90

Even

G D. Dai Ames TR17 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 83

F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95

NCSUBig

F B. Lue TR10.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 53

F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58

TENNSmall

C M. Rubin TR11.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83

NC StateBetterTennessee

NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6

Even

TENN defense9th of 366 · +8.2

NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3

Even

TENN offense9th of 366 · +10.4

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

TENNSmall

Backcourt+8.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players

NCSUSmall

Frontcourt+3.1 · 2 players

Bench+2.9 · 5 players

TENNBig

Bench+11.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNCSU betterTENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

NC State

Guards

P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR

Forwards

K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew

Tennessee

Guards

J. Harris35 min · TRT. Lundblade35 min · TRD. Dai Ames32 min · TRJ. Haralson27 min · TRT. Hill25 min · TRT. Henderson7 min

Forwards

B. Lue27 min · TRJ. Washington21 min · TRD. Brown15 minC. Fermin13 min · TRC. WashingtonNewR. ScottNew

Centers

M. Rubin30 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NCSU83.2 #25

TENN78.8 #81

Points per possession

NCSU1.18 #30

TENN1.16 #49

Pace (possessions)

NCSU70.2 #103

TENN68.1 #226

Shooting

Effective FG%

NCSU55.0 #35

TENN51.4 #174

3-point %

NCSU38.8 #6

TENN33.4 #201

3-point attempt rate

NCSU43.4 #104

TENN32.1 #328

Free throw rate

NCSU35.1 #175

TENN37.4 #115

Possessions

Turnover rate

NCSU13.1 #7

TENN17.4 #227

Offensive rebound rate

NCSU28.2 #258

TENN44.7 #1

Assists per game

NCSU15.4 #70

TENN17.1 #24

Defense

Points allowed

NCSU76.3 #224

TENN69.6 #58

Points allowed per possession

NCSU1.09 #186

TENN1.02 #43

Opponent effective FG%

NCSU52.7 #256

TENN47.8 #37

Opponent 3-point %

NCSU35.5 #281

TENN30.5 #21

Turnovers forced

NCSU18.2 #90

TENN16.1 #215

Defensive rebound rate

NCSU69.5 #181

TENN72.2 #61

Steals per game

NCSU8.1 #37

TENN7.3 #101

Blocks per game

NCSU3.4 #159

TENN3.7 #114

NCSU		TENN
Scoring
83.2 #25	Points per game	78.8 #81
1.18 #30	Points per possession	1.16 #49
70.2 #103	Pace (possessions)	68.1 #226
Shooting
55.0 #35	Effective FG%	51.4 #174
38.8 #6	3-point %	33.4 #201
43.4 #104	3-point attempt rate	32.1 #328
35.1 #175	Free throw rate	37.4 #115
Possessions
13.1 #7	Turnover rate	17.4 #227
28.2 #258	Offensive rebound rate	44.7 #1
15.4 #70	Assists per game	17.1 #24
Defense
76.3 #224	Points allowed	69.6 #58
1.09 #186	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #43
52.7 #256	Opponent effective FG%	47.8 #37
35.5 #281	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #21
18.2 #90	Turnovers forced	16.1 #215
69.5 #181	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #61
8.1 #37	Steals per game	7.3 #101
3.4 #159	Blocks per game	3.7 #114

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas66–68
Lvs Virginia74–81
Wvs Pitt98–88
Lvs Stanford84–85
Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan62–95
Wvs Iowa State76–62
Wvs Virginia79–72
Wvs Miami OH78–56
Lvs Vanderbilt68–75

A week or more of rest.

NC State Wolfpack vs Tennessee Volunteers

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC State

Tennessee

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

NC State

Tennessee