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  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. KU vs MIZ
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Kansas Jayhawks vs Missouri Tigers

T-Mobile Center · Neutral site
#16KUKansas AP #17
vs
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
KUThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KU 81–72 · win probability KU 79%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

KU 1, MIZ 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KUBig
Three-pointers
KU hits 34.6% and allows 30.6%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 35.2% and 36.4% of their shots
MIZSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: KU 29.3%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: KU 70.1%, MIZ 68.3%
MIZSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: KU 9%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: KU 5, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
KU has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
MIZ offense vs KU defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Even
KU offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 17th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: KU 32.2, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: KU 27.4, MIZ 35.5
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: KU 51.2 and allows 45.0; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: KU 15.6%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: KU 13.8%, MIZ 16.6%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: KU plays 68.8 a game (193rd fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—KU -9.1—
Total—152.9—
Projected score—KU 81 · MIZ 71.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadKU -5.5—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreKU 38.5 · MIZ 33—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kansas has the better starters

Position by position: Kansas 5, Missouri 0, even 0
KansasBetterMissouri
G L. Blyden TR16.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.5 ast Score 85
KUBig
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G D. Parker TR18.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
KUSmall
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
F K. Dawes TR12.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
KUBig
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
F T. Kaufman-Renn TR14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 98
KUSmall
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
C C. Reeves TR11 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 94
KUSmall
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
KansasBetterMissouri
KU offense17th of 366 · +8.6
Even
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
KU defense15th of 366 · +6.3
Even
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
KUBig
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+13.0 · 3 players
KUBig
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench+0.1 · 3 players
MIZSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestKU betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Kansas
Guards
L. Blyden34 min · TRD. Parker30 min · TRK. Rosario12 minW. Thengvall2 minT. StokesNewT. PerryNew
Forwards
K. Dawes31 min · TRT. Kaufman-Renn28 min · TRD. AdkinsNewA. RichmondNewG. MordiniNew
Centers
C. Reeves21 min · TRP. Mbiya5 min
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
KUMIZ
Scoring
75.1 #161Points per game79.2 #78
1.09 #152Points per possession1.15 #65
68.8 #193Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
51.2 #186Effective FG%55.0 #36
34.6 #1393-point %35.0 #112
35.2 #2683-point attempt rate36.4 #240
32.2 #255Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
15.6 #111Turnover rate17.7 #255
29.3 #227Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
13.9 #150Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
69.1 #47Points allowed75.5 #204
1.00 #28Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
45.0 #2Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
30.6 #24Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
13.8 #340Turnovers forced16.6 #182
70.1 #152Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
5.4 #310Steals per game6.6 #162
5.8 #6Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kansas

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St John's65–67
  • Wvs CA Baptist68–60
  • Lvs Houston47–69
  • Wvs TCU78–73
  • Wvs Kansas St104–85

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.