1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. TLSA @ MOST
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Missouri State Bears

Great Southern Bank Arena · at Missouri St
#108TLSATulsa
@
#251MOSTMissouri St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TLSAThis seasonMOST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TLSA 79–71 · win probability TLSA 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

TLSA 6, MOST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TLSABig
Three-pointers
TLSA hits 38.5% and allows 32.4%; MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 46.7% and 41.3% of their shots
TLSABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: TLSA 55.4 and allows 49.5; MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0
TLSABig
MOST offense vs TLSA defense
Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings
TLSABig
TLSA offense vs MOST defense
Offense 99th of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings
TLSASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TLSA 32.8%, MOST 32.0%. Defensive: TLSA 71.0%, MOST 68.0%
TLSASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: TLSA 41.4, MOST 43.8. Allowed: TLSA 32.0, MOST 40.2
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: TLSA plays 70.1 a game (115th fastest), MOST 67.4 (261st). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
TLSA has played the 111th-hardest schedule, MOST the 180th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MOSTSmall
Home court
MOST at home. This season: MOST 0-0 at home, TLSA 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TLSA 15.6%, MOST 16.7%. Forced: TLSA 15.4%, MOST 16.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TLSA 18%, MOST 25%. Transfers in: TLSA 7, MOST 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TLSA -8.1—
Total—150.2—
Projected score—TLSA 79.2 · MOST 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTLSA -5.0—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreTLSA 37.6 · MOST 32.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Tulsa has the better starters

Position by position: Tulsa 2, Missouri St 0, even 3
TulsaBetterMissouri St
G K. Williams TR14.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 46
Even
G T. Williams9.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 34
G J. Johnson TR15 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 69
TLSASmall
G M. Cunningham3.1 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
G B. Moss TR9.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 54
TLSABig
F C. Boone1.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 19
F M. Emory TR11.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 27
No call
F M. Gray NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F C. Loofe TR7.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26
No call
F C. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
TulsaBetterMissouri St
TLSA offense99th of 366 · -0.8
TLSASmall
MOST defense219th of 366 · -5.7
TLSA defense133rd of 366 · -2.5
TLSABig
MOST offense275th of 366 · -8.4
Backcourt-0.9 · 3 players
TLSASmall
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.8 · 2 players
MOSTBig
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestTLSA betterMOST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tulsa
Guards
K. Williams36 min · TRJ. Johnson33 min · TRB. Moss27 min · TRM. Williams21 min · TRM. Rigsby19 minJ. Lawal13 min
Forwards
M. Emory37 min · TRC. Loofe26 min · TRK. Banks16 min · TRD. DesireNewA. DimitrijevicNew
Missouri St
Guards
T. Williams31 minM. Cunningham12 minK. StubblefieldNewJ. BlairNewD. RoweNew
Forwards
C. Boone8 minM. GrayNewC. ThompsonNewN. RueyNewL. RolleNewI. MedinaNew
Centers
A. AcimovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TLSAMOST
Scoring
83.9 #20Points per game73.1 #223
1.20 #16Points per possession1.09 #169
70.1 #115Pace (possessions)67.4 #261
Shooting
55.4 #29Effective FG%51.1 #191
38.5 #103-point %33.0 #236
46.7 #373-point attempt rate41.3 #144
41.4 #39Free throw rate43.8 #12
Possessions
15.6 #109Turnover rate16.7 #180
32.8 #95Offensive rebound rate32.0 #124
15.1 #79Assists per game13.9 #155
Defense
74.4 #172Points allowed74.3 #166
1.06 #111Points allowed per possession1.10 #222
49.5 #82Opponent effective FG%52.0 #217
32.4 #85Opponent 3-point %34.4 #209
15.4 #260Turnovers forced16.9 #158
71.0 #108Defensive rebound rate68.0 #261
6.6 #170Steals per game6.7 #152
2.5 #306Blocks per game3.0 #215
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tulsa

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn86–92
  • Wvs New Mexico74–69
  • Wvs Wichita St83–79
  • Wvs UNLV77–66
  • Wvs SF Austin89–84

A week or more of rest.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
  • Wvs Liberty77–69
  • Wvs FIU75–72
  • Lvs MTSU63–75
  • Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.