Princeton Tigers at Vermont Catamounts: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 6:00 PM ETPatrick Gymnasium · at Vermont

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Princeton and Vermont
PRIN	This season	UVM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRIN 70–69 · win probability PRIN 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PRIN has more of the edges

PRIN 4, UVM 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

PRIN has played the 137th-hardest schedule, UVM the 325th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PRINBig

UVM offense vs PRIN defense

Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 115th, on the model’s ratings

PRINBig

Three-pointers

PRIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.1%; UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 44.5% and 44.6% of their shots

UVMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRIN 49.6 and allows 52.0; UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4

PRINBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRIN 100%, UVM 31%. Transfers in: PRIN 0, UVM 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UVMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRIN 17.1%, UVM 14.3%. Forced: PRIN 14.2%, UVM 14.8%

PRINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRIN 34.6, UVM 31.1. Allowed: PRIN 34.0, UVM 36.4

UVMSmall

Home court

UVM at home. This season: UVM 0-0 at home, PRIN 0-0 away

Even

PRIN offense vs UVM defense

Offense 177th of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRIN 27.2%, UVM 26.2%. Defensive: PRIN 71.5%, UVM 77.0%

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: PRIN plays 65.0 a game (344th fastest), UVM 65.2 (342nd). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PRIN -1.2	—
Total	—	138.7	—
Projected score	—	PRIN 69.9 · UVM 68.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRIN -0.8	—
1H total	64.9	—
1H projected score	PRIN 32.9 · UVM 32	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRIN LLWWL	16-12	57%	6-7	—
UVM LWWLL	14-18	44%	8-6	—

Venue/role: PRIN away; UVM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN OOUOU	13-15	46%	8-20
UVM UUOUU	17-15	53%	20-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRIN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UVM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Princeton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ NE	W70–57WU
Dec 12	@ LIU	No recent meeting

Vermont

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ FLA	No recent meeting
Dec 10	@ MRMK	W66–59WU
Dec 13	vs NE	W85–74WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PRIN 1–1 UVMSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · PRIN 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 30, 2025-26	UVM 69 @ PRIN 75	PRIN +3.5	PRIN W
Nov 26, 2025-26	UVM 79 vs PRIN 74	PRIN +5.5	PRIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

28 games played

Straight up

8-20

29% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2029%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1257%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O U U U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	@DART	L 69-71	-1.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsBRWN	W 63-53	-4.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	@COR	L 64-87	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	@COLU	W 80-68	+5.5	W +17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	@PENN	L 60-61	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOR	L 65-89	+3.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	vsCOLU	L 65-75	+1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 20	@BRWN	L 71-80	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	vsHARV	L 56-58	+3.5	W +1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsDART	W 82-61	-1.5	W +19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	@YALE	L 53-78	+14.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

DART

L 69-71

−3.5

BRWN

W 63-53

+5.5

COR

L 64-87

−15.5

COLU

W 80-68

+17.5

PENN

L 60-61

+2.5

COR

L 65-89

−20.5

COLU

L 65-75

−8.5

BRWN

L 71-80

−6.5

HARV

L 56-58

+1.5

DART

W 82-61

+19.5

YALE

L 53-78

−10.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

DART

L 69-71

−7.5

BRWN

W 63-53

−18.5

COR

L 64-87

−7.5

COLU

W 80-68

+8.5

PENN

L 60-61

−23.5

COR

L 65-89

−1.5

COLU

L 65-75

+2.5

BRWN

L 71-80

+21.5

HARV

L 56-58

−16.5

DART

W 82-61

+0.5

YALE

L 53-78

−6.5

over 13under 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vermont

32 games played

Straight up

20-12

63% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1263%

W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L W L W L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O O O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@BRWN	W 89-84	-5.5	L −0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 15	@NE	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 18	@BUF	L 90-94	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsLIB	L 73-79	+8.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsURI	L 65-80	+4.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsPRIN	W 79-74	-5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsYALE	L 74-77	+6.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 151
Dec 3	@ORST	L 58-80	+3.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	@PEPP	W 65-56	-1.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsMRMK	W 66-59	-6.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 17	vsSIE	W 83-69	-2.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 20	vsIONA	L 78-83	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 161
Dec 30	@PRIN	L 69-75	-3.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 3	@UNH	W 80-61	-7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsBING	W 60-59	-20.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 15	vsME	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	@UALB	L 68-75	-5.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@UML	W 77-68	-4.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 24	@BRY	W 62-52	-8.5	W +1.5	133.5	U 114
Jan 29	vsUMBC	W 64-55	-8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 119
Jan 31	vsNJIT	L 77-79	-13.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 156
Feb 5	@ME	L 70-76	-8.5	L −14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	vsUNH	W 80-57	-9.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 12	@BING	W 73-65	-11.5	L −3.5	136.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsBRY	W 90-63	-13.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 153
Feb 19	@UMBC	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 137
Feb 21	@NJIT	W 70-64	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 26	vsUML	W 66-64	-9.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 3	vsUALB	W 69-56	-9.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	vsBRY	W 77-57	-11.5	W +8.5	130.5	O 134
Mar 10	vsNJIT	W 63-54	-10.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 117
Mar 14	@UMBC	L 59-74	+1.5	L −13.5	134.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

−0.5

W 85-74

+12.5

BUF

L 90-94

−5.5

LIB

L 73-79

+2.5

URI

L 65-80

−10.5

PRIN

W 79-74

−0.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−18.5

PEPP

W 65-56

+7.5

MRMK

W 66-59

+0.5

SIE

W 83-69

+11.5

IONA

L 78-83

−11.5

PRIN

L 69-75

−9.5

UNH

W 80-61

+11.5

BING

W 60-59

−19.5

W 67-62

−9.5

UALB

L 68-75

−12.5

UML

W 77-68

+4.5

BRY

W 62-52

+1.5

UMBC

W 64-55

+0.5

NJIT

L 77-79

−15.5

L 70-76

−14.5

UNH

W 80-57

+13.5

BING

W 73-65

−3.5

BRY

W 90-63

+13.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−14.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−0.5

UML

W 66-64

−7.5

UALB

W 69-56

+3.5

BRY

W 77-57

+8.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−1.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

+41.5

W 85-74

+24.5

BUF

L 90-94

+42.5

LIB

L 73-79

+10.5

URI

L 65-80

+0.5

PRIN

W 79-74

+12.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−5.5

PEPP

W 65-56

−21.5

MRMK

W 66-59

−11.5

SIE

W 83-69

+17.5

IONA

L 78-83

+8.5

PRIN

L 69-75

+7.5

UNH

W 80-61

+1.5

BING

W 60-59

−21.5

W 67-62

−1.5

UALB

L 68-75

+3.5

UML

W 77-68

−0.5

BRY

W 62-52

−19.5

UMBC

W 64-55

−22.5

NJIT

L 77-79

+16.5

L 70-76

+15.5

UNH

W 80-57

−1.5

BING

W 73-65

+1.5

BRY

W 90-63

+19.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−5.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−8.5

UML

W 66-64

−16.5

UALB

W 69-56

−11.5

BRY

W 77-57

+3.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−17.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−1.5

over 17under 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton has the better starters

Position by position: Princeton 2, Vermont 1, even 2

PrincetonBetterVermont

G J. Hicke15.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 85

PRINBig

G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24

G J. Stanton11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 64

PRINBig

G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14

G L. Clark6.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29

Even

G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

G D. Davis14.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 69

UVMSmall

F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96

F M. Abdullahi9.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

Even

F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41

PrincetonBetterVermont

PRIN offense177th of 366 · -5.5

Even

UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5

PRIN defense115th of 366 · -1.5

PRINBig

UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1

Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players

PRINBig

Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

UVMBig

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

Bench-4.6 · 5 players

UVMBig

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPRIN betterUVM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Princeton

Guards

J. Hicke35 minJ. Stanton32 minL. Clark29 minD. Davis28 minS. Whitfield12 minP. Seals8 min

Forwards

M. Abdullahi29 minJ. Huggins22 minC. Happy19 minJ. Hammond7 minC. McSweeney5 minW. Kutzler1 min

Centers

W. HiggsNew

Vermont

Guards

D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min

Forwards

G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRIN67.5 #324

UVM72.1 #237

Points per possession

PRIN1.04 #268

UVM1.11 #124

Pace (possessions)

PRIN65.0 #344

UVM65.2 #342

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRIN49.6 #260

UVM53.1 #95

3-point %

PRIN33.9 #177

UVM33.3 #208

3-point attempt rate

PRIN44.5 #78

UVM44.6 #77

Free throw rate

PRIN34.6 #192

UVM31.1 #279

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRIN17.1 #216

UVM14.3 #34

Offensive rebound rate

PRIN27.2 #287

UVM26.2 #318

Assists per game

PRIN12.5 #254

UVM12.3 #266

Defense

Points allowed

PRIN72.4 #114

UVM68.8 #44

Points allowed per possession

PRIN1.11 #242

UVM1.05 #96

Opponent effective FG%

PRIN52.0 #209

UVM50.4 #121

Opponent 3-point %

PRIN31.1 #36

UVM35.3 #267

Turnovers forced

PRIN14.2 #328

UVM14.8 #307

Defensive rebound rate

PRIN71.5 #82

UVM77.0 #2

Steals per game

PRIN4.6 #349

UVM4.5 #354

Blocks per game

PRIN2.1 #341

UVM2.7 #279

PRIN		UVM
Scoring
67.5 #324	Points per game	72.1 #237
1.04 #268	Points per possession	1.11 #124
65.0 #344	Pace (possessions)	65.2 #342
Shooting
49.6 #260	Effective FG%	53.1 #95
33.9 #177	3-point %	33.3 #208
44.5 #78	3-point attempt rate	44.6 #77
34.6 #192	Free throw rate	31.1 #279
Possessions
17.1 #216	Turnover rate	14.3 #34
27.2 #287	Offensive rebound rate	26.2 #318
12.5 #254	Assists per game	12.3 #266
Defense
72.4 #114	Points allowed	68.8 #44
1.11 #242	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #96
52.0 #209	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #121
31.1 #36	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #267
14.2 #328	Turnovers forced	14.8 #307
71.5 #82	Defensive rebound rate	77.0 #2
4.6 #349	Steals per game	4.5 #354
2.1 #341	Blocks per game	2.7 #279

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Princeton

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Yale53–78
Wvs Dartmouth82–61
Lvs Harvard56–58
L@ Brown71–80
Lvs Columbia65–75

A week or more of rest.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC59–74
Wvs NJIT63–54
Wvs Bryant77–57
Wvs UAlbany69–56
Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Princeton Tigers at Vermont Catamounts

What could decide it: PRIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

Vermont

Princeton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Princeton

Vermont