1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 3
  3. MONT @ NAU
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 3

Montana Grizzlies at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · at N Arizona · Conference game
#273MONTMontana
@
#321NAUN Arizona
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONTThis seasonNAU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MONT 73–73 · win probability MONT 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MONT has more of the edges

MONT 4, NAU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MONTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9
NAUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, NAU 16.0%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, NAU 16.6%
MONTBig
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%. Threes are 41.8% and 36.6% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), NAU 65.5 (330th). Faster games mean more points
MONTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, NAU 23.3%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, NAU 66.6%
MONTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, NAU 31.8. Allowed: MONT 32.6, NAU 32.7
NAUSmall
Home court
NAU at home. This season: NAU 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
Even
MONT offense vs NAU defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
NAU offense vs MONT defense
Offense 330th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, NAU the 275th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, NAU 40%. Transfers in: MONT 0, NAU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MONT -0.5—
Total—145.4—
Projected score—MONT 73 · NAU 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMONT -0.4—
1H total68.0—
1H projected scoreMONT 34.2 · NAU 33.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

N Arizona has the better starters

Position by position: Montana 0, N Arizona 1, even 4
MontanaBetterN Arizona
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
NAUSmall
G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
No call
G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
MontanaBetterN Arizona
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
Even
NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
Even
NAU offense330th of 366 · -10.7
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
MONTSmall
Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMONT betterNAU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
N Arizona
Guards
R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min
Forwards
D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew
Centers
N. KeutchaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONTNAU
Scoring
75.7 #148Points per game68.1 #311
1.06 #216Points per possession1.04 #271
71.1 #72Pace (possessions)65.5 #330
Shooting
55.8 #23Effective FG%51.7 #161
36.6 #383-point %35.6 #79
41.8 #1383-point attempt rate36.6 #236
36.8 #135Free throw rate31.8 #260
Possessions
19.5 #339Turnover rate16.0 #140
20.7 #363Offensive rebound rate23.3 #348
14.3 #125Assists per game12.5 #251
Defense
77.6 #254Points allowed77.6 #257
1.09 #204Points allowed per possession1.18 #351
50.5 #129Opponent effective FG%56.9 #355
32.3 #74Opponent 3-point %38.7 #362
14.3 #326Turnovers forced16.6 #181
70.4 #143Defensive rebound rate66.6 #305
5.4 #306Steals per game6.3 #194
2.4 #313Blocks per game2.7 #287
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho St65–73
  • Lvs Montana St65–76
  • L@ E Washington57–88
  • L@ Idaho58–78
  • L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.