Wright State Raiders at Milwaukee Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 12:00 AM ETUW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · at Milwaukee · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wright St and Milwaukee
WRST	This season	MILW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WRST 77–76 · win probability WRST 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WRST has more of the edges

WRST 4, MILW 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WRSTBig

Three-pointers

WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%; MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 34.2% and 38.1% of their shots

WRSTBig

WRST offense vs MILW defense

Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

WRSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4; MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5

WRSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WRST 37.4, MILW 32.1. Allowed: WRST 33.3, MILW 35.9

Context

Schedule so far

WRST has played the 264th-hardest schedule, MILW the 191st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILWSmall

Home court

MILW at home. This season: MILW 0-0 at home, WRST 0-0 away

Even

MILW offense vs WRST defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WRST 32%, MILW 40%. Transfers in: WRST 4, MILW 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WRST 16.1%, MILW 15.3%. Forced: WRST 16.6%, MILW 15.8%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WRST 32.8%, MILW 33.0%. Defensive: WRST 70.6%, MILW 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: WRST plays 69.1 a game (171st fastest), MILW 69.1 (174th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WRST -1.1	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	WRST 76.7 · MILW 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WRST -0.8	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	WRST 36 · MILW 35.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WRST WWWLW	21-12	64%	10-4	—
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	6-8	—

Venue/role: WRST away; MILW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WRST OUOUO	16-17	48%	21-12
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WRST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wright St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ GB	W83–75WO

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ NIU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	@ SDST	W88–87WO
Dec 12	vs UIC	L69–80LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

WRST 6–5 MILWWRST leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · WRST has won the last 2 meetings · WRST 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 30, 2025-26	WRST 76 @ MILW 69	MILW +2.5	WRST W
Jan 1, 2025-26	MILW 70 @ WRST 76	WRST -3.5	WRST W
Feb 14, 2024-25	WRST 80 @ MILW 88	MILW -6.5	MILW W
Jan 22, 2024-25	MILW 95 @ WRST 79	WRST -2.5	MILW W
Jan 20, 2023-24	MILW 81 @ WRST 95	WRST -8.5	WRST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wright St

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

L L W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W L W W W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

U U U U U O U O O O U O U U O O O O O U O U U U O U O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@CAL	L 67-77	+14.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 11	vsTOL	L 71-81	-5.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsRAD	W 92-59	+6.5	W +39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsKENT	L 72-76	+4.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 25	@STET	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	@BTLR	L 69-94	+14.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 163
Dec 3	@YSU	L 68-69	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsGB	W 86-58	-6.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 13	@MRSH	L 74-76	+3.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 16	vsM-OH	L 76-83	+1.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 22	vsEMU	W 70-64	-10.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 29	vsOAK	W 88-73	-3.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	vsMILW	W 76-70	-3.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 4	@IUIN	W 81-77	-8.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 9	@DETM	W 84-82	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Jan 11	@OAK	W 94-84	+4.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsYSU	W 93-83	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 21	vsCLE	L 79-85	-15.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsNKU	W 88-80	-1.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 168
Jan 30	@MILW	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	@GB	W 83-75	-3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 158
Feb 4	@RMU	L 66-72	-1.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsPFW	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 12	vsDETM	L 74-77	-11.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 15	@CLE	W 102-90	-7.5	W +4.5	157.5	O 192
Feb 19	vsIUIN	W 85-73	-11.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 158
Feb 22	vsRMU	L 68-81	-4.5	L −17.5	146.5	O 149
Feb 25	@PFW	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 28	@NKU	W 92-91	+3.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 183
Mar 4	vsCLE	W 90-61	-14.5	W +14.5	162.5	U 151
Mar 9	vsNKU	W 103-90	+1.5	W +14.5	157.5	O 193
Mar 10	vsDETM	W 66-63	-4.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 129
Mar 20	vsUVA	L 73-82	+17.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

+4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−15.5

RAD

W 92-59

+39.5

KENT

L 72-76

+0.5

STET

W 79-62

+7.5

BTLR

L 69-94

−10.5

YSU

L 68-69

+2.5

W 86-58

+21.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 76-83

−5.5

EMU

W 70-64

−4.5

OAK

W 88-73

+11.5

MILW

W 76-70

+2.5

IUIN

W 81-77

−4.5

DETM

W 84-82

−3.5

OAK

W 94-84

+14.5

YSU

W 93-83

+5.5

CLE

L 79-85

−21.5

NKU

W 88-80

+6.5

MILW

W 76-69

+4.5

W 83-75

+4.5

RMU

L 66-72

−7.5

PFW

W 73-68

−1.5

DETM

L 74-77

−14.5

CLE

W 102-90

+4.5

IUIN

W 85-73

+0.5

RMU

L 68-81

−17.5

PFW

W 74-70

+2.5

NKU

W 92-91

+4.5

CLE

W 90-61

+14.5

NKU

W 103-90

+14.5

DETM

W 66-63

−1.5

UVA

L 73-82

+8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

−4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−7.5

RAD

W 92-59

−5.5

KENT

L 72-76

−9.5

STET

W 79-62

−6.5

BTLR

L 69-94

+12.5

YSU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 86-58

+1.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+0.5

M-OH

L 76-83

+9.5

EMU

W 70-64

−8.5

OAK

W 88-73

+1.5

MILW

W 76-70

−1.5

IUIN

W 81-77

−4.5

DETM

W 84-82

+17.5

OAK

W 94-84

+16.5

YSU

W 93-83

+34.5

CLE

L 79-85

+7.5

NKU

W 88-80

+12.5

MILW

W 76-69

−6.5

W 83-75

+13.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

PFW

W 73-68

−9.5

DETM

L 74-77

−0.5

CLE

W 102-90

+34.5

IUIN

W 85-73

−2.5

RMU

L 68-81

+2.5

PFW

W 74-70

−6.5

NKU

W 92-91

+29.5

CLE

W 90-61

−11.5

NKU

W 103-90

+35.5

DETM

W 66-63

−24.5

UVA

L 73-82

+8.5

over 16under 17avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee has the better starters

Position by position: Wright St 1, Milwaukee 2, even 2

Wright StBetterMilwaukee

G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66

WRSTBig

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30

MILWSmall

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21

MILWBig

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78

Even

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67

No call

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Wright StBetterMilwaukee

WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5

WRSTBig

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6

Even

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player

MILWSmall

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestWRST betterMILW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wright St

Guards

C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew

Forwards

K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew

Centers

N. Djapa10 min · TR

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WRST79.8 #72

MILW74.7 #173

Points per possession

WRST1.16 #54

MILW1.09 #172

Pace (possessions)

WRST69.1 #171

MILW69.1 #174

Shooting

Effective FG%

WRST54.3 #56

MILW49.9 #242

3-point %

WRST36.4 #44

MILW32.3 #266

3-point attempt rate

WRST34.2 #290

MILW38.1 #212

Free throw rate

WRST37.4 #120

MILW32.1 #256

Possessions

Turnover rate

WRST16.1 #149

MILW15.3 #85

Offensive rebound rate

WRST32.8 #91

MILW33.0 #88

Assists per game

WRST13.2 #199

MILW12.9 #220

Defense

Points allowed

WRST75.6 #206

MILW79.9 #317

Points allowed per possession

WRST1.09 #201

MILW1.15 #328

Opponent effective FG%

WRST52.4 #238

MILW55.5 #340

Opponent 3-point %

WRST34.3 #203

MILW36.5 #329

Turnovers forced

WRST16.6 #179

MILW15.8 #232

Defensive rebound rate

WRST70.6 #129

MILW70.8 #121

Steals per game

WRST7.1 #114

MILW6.5 #176

Blocks per game

WRST4.4 #47

MILW3.0 #230

WRST		MILW
Scoring
79.8 #72	Points per game	74.7 #173
1.16 #54	Points per possession	1.09 #172
69.1 #171	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #174
Shooting
54.3 #56	Effective FG%	49.9 #242
36.4 #44	3-point %	32.3 #266
34.2 #290	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #212
37.4 #120	Free throw rate	32.1 #256
Possessions
16.1 #149	Turnover rate	15.3 #85
32.8 #91	Offensive rebound rate	33.0 #88
13.2 #199	Assists per game	12.9 #220
Defense
75.6 #206	Points allowed	79.9 #317
1.09 #201	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #328
52.4 #238	Opponent effective FG%	55.5 #340
34.3 #203	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #329
16.6 #179	Turnovers forced	15.8 #232
70.6 #129	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #121
7.1 #114	Steals per game	6.5 #176
4.4 #47	Blocks per game	3.0 #230

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Virginia73–82
Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
Wvs N Kentucky103–90
Wvs Cleveland St90–61
W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

Wright State Raiders at Milwaukee Panthers

What could decide it: WRST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wright St

Milwaukee

Milwaukee has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wright St

Milwaukee