Wright State Raiders at Green Bay Phoenix: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETResch Center · at Green Bay · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wright St and Green Bay
WRST	This season	GB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GB 75–74 · win probability GB 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WRST has more of the edges

WRST 4, GB 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WRSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WRST 32.8%, GB 25.1%. Defensive: WRST 70.6%, GB 70.4%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: WRST plays 69.1 a game (171st fastest), GB 65.2 (339th). Faster games mean more points

WRSTSmall

WRST offense vs GB defense

Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings

WRSTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WRST 16.1%, GB 15.9%. Forced: WRST 16.6%, GB 13.2%

WRSTSmall

Three-pointers

WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%; GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 34.2% and 37.3% of their shots

GBSmall

Home court

GB at home. This season: GB 0-0 at home, WRST 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4; GB 54.9 and allows 53.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WRST 32%, GB 40%. Transfers in: WRST 4, GB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WRST 37.4, GB 41.6. Allowed: WRST 33.3, GB 37.4

Context

Schedule so far

WRST has played the 264th-hardest schedule, GB the 255th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

GB offense vs WRST defense

Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GB -0.9	—
Total	—	149.6	—
Projected score	—	WRST 74.3 · GB 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GB -0.4	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	WRST 34.8 · GB 35.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WRST WWWLW	21-12	64%	10-4	—
GB WLWWL	19-12	61%	8-4	—

Venue/role: WRST away; GB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WRST OUOUO	16-17	48%	21-12
GB UUOUO	16-15	52%	16-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WRST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wright St

No more games listed yet.

Green Bay

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ BRAD	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

WRST 8–3 GBWRST leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · WRST has won the last 2 meetings · WRST 6-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2025-26	WRST 83 @ GB 75	GB +3.5	WRST W
Dec 7, 2025-26	GB 58 @ WRST 86	WRST -6.5	WRST W
Feb 16, 2024-25	WRST 68 @ GB 79	GB +8.5	GB W
Jan 2, 2024-25	GB 51 @ WRST 74	WRST -13.5	WRST W
Jan 18, 2023-24	GB 88 @ WRST 81	WRST -10.5	GB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wright St

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

L L W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W L W W W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

U U U U U O U O O O U O U U O O O O O U O U U U O U O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@CAL	L 67-77	+14.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 11	vsTOL	L 71-81	-5.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsRAD	W 92-59	+6.5	W +39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsKENT	L 72-76	+4.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 25	@STET	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	@BTLR	L 69-94	+14.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 163
Dec 3	@YSU	L 68-69	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsGB	W 86-58	-6.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 13	@MRSH	L 74-76	+3.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 16	vsM-OH	L 76-83	+1.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 22	vsEMU	W 70-64	-10.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 29	vsOAK	W 88-73	-3.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	vsMILW	W 76-70	-3.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 4	@IUIN	W 81-77	-8.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 9	@DETM	W 84-82	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Jan 11	@OAK	W 94-84	+4.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsYSU	W 93-83	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 21	vsCLE	L 79-85	-15.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsNKU	W 88-80	-1.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 168
Jan 30	@MILW	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	@GB	W 83-75	-3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 158
Feb 4	@RMU	L 66-72	-1.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsPFW	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 12	vsDETM	L 74-77	-11.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 15	@CLE	W 102-90	-7.5	W +4.5	157.5	O 192
Feb 19	vsIUIN	W 85-73	-11.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 158
Feb 22	vsRMU	L 68-81	-4.5	L −17.5	146.5	O 149
Feb 25	@PFW	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 28	@NKU	W 92-91	+3.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 183
Mar 4	vsCLE	W 90-61	-14.5	W +14.5	162.5	U 151
Mar 9	vsNKU	W 103-90	+1.5	W +14.5	157.5	O 193
Mar 10	vsDETM	W 66-63	-4.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 129
Mar 20	vsUVA	L 73-82	+17.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

+4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−15.5

RAD

W 92-59

+39.5

KENT

L 72-76

+0.5

STET

W 79-62

+7.5

BTLR

L 69-94

−10.5

YSU

L 68-69

+2.5

W 86-58

+21.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 76-83

−5.5

EMU

W 70-64

−4.5

OAK

W 88-73

+11.5

MILW

W 76-70

+2.5

IUIN

W 81-77

−4.5

DETM

W 84-82

−3.5

OAK

W 94-84

+14.5

YSU

W 93-83

+5.5

CLE

L 79-85

−21.5

NKU

W 88-80

+6.5

MILW

W 76-69

+4.5

W 83-75

+4.5

RMU

L 66-72

−7.5

PFW

W 73-68

−1.5

DETM

L 74-77

−14.5

CLE

W 102-90

+4.5

IUIN

W 85-73

+0.5

RMU

L 68-81

−17.5

PFW

W 74-70

+2.5

NKU

W 92-91

+4.5

CLE

W 90-61

+14.5

NKU

W 103-90

+14.5

DETM

W 66-63

−1.5

UVA

L 73-82

+8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

−4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−7.5

RAD

W 92-59

−5.5

KENT

L 72-76

−9.5

STET

W 79-62

−6.5

BTLR

L 69-94

+12.5

YSU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 86-58

+1.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+0.5

M-OH

L 76-83

+9.5

EMU

W 70-64

−8.5

OAK

W 88-73

+1.5

MILW

W 76-70

−1.5

IUIN

W 81-77

−4.5

DETM

W 84-82

+17.5

OAK

W 94-84

+16.5

YSU

W 93-83

+34.5

CLE

L 79-85

+7.5

NKU

W 88-80

+12.5

MILW

W 76-69

−6.5

W 83-75

+13.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

PFW

W 73-68

−9.5

DETM

L 74-77

−0.5

CLE

W 102-90

+34.5

IUIN

W 85-73

−2.5

RMU

L 68-81

+2.5

PFW

W 74-70

−6.5

NKU

W 92-91

+29.5

CLE

W 90-61

−11.5

NKU

W 103-90

+35.5

DETM

W 66-63

−24.5

UVA

L 73-82

+8.5

over 16under 17avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Green Bay

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L L L L W W L L W W L W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

L L L W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L W W L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U O U U U O O O O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KU	L 51-94	+30.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@BUF	L 76-83	+3.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 13	@STMN	L 61-80	+13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@MINN	L 65-72	+25.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsYALE	L 67-73	+17.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 22	vsMASS	W 79-75	+5.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 154
Nov 24	vsIONA	W 80-75	+5.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 155
Dec 4	vsRMU	L 78-80	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 158
Dec 7	@WRST	L 58-86	+6.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 11	@IUIN	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 17	vsUCSB	W 67-64	+7.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 131
Dec 23	@CAM	L 79-102	+5.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 181
Jan 1	@PFW	W 72-54	+8.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 126
Jan 5	vsMILW	W 79-76	+3.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsIUIN	W 75-59	-6.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 134
Jan 11	vsNKU	W 80-78	+4.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 15	@CLE	W 88-73	-3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 18	vsOAK	L 63-88	+4.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 22	@YSU	L 81-88	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	@RMU	W 71-67	+6.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 30	vsCLE	L 82-89	-7.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 171
Feb 1	vsWRST	L 75-83	+3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 158
Feb 4	@NKU	W 87-84	+7.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsDETM	W 76-63	-3.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsPFW	W 76-59	+1.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 135
Feb 15	@MILW	L 72-75	+2.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@OAK	W 73-68	+6.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 22	@DETM	L 70-74	+1.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsYSU	W 85-63	-1.5	W +20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 3	vsPFW	W 64-56	-3.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 120
Mar 8	vsNKU	L 76-96	+3.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-94

−12.5

BUF

L 76-83

−3.5

STMN

L 61-80

−5.5

MINN

L 65-72

+18.5

YALE

L 67-73

+11.5

MASS

W 79-75

+9.5

IONA

W 80-75

+10.5

RMU

L 78-80

−0.5

WRST

L 58-86

−21.5

IUIN

W 85-75

+13.5

UCSB

W 67-64

+10.5

CAM

L 79-102

−17.5

PFW

W 72-54

+26.5

MILW

W 79-76

+6.5

IUIN

W 75-59

+9.5

NKU

W 80-78

+6.5

CLE

W 88-73

+11.5

OAK

L 63-88

−20.5

YSU

L 81-88

+0.5

RMU

W 71-67

+10.5

CLE

L 82-89

−14.5

WRST

L 75-83

−4.5

NKU

W 87-84

+10.5

DETM

W 76-63

+9.5

PFW

W 76-59

+18.5

MILW

L 72-75

−0.5

OAK

W 73-68

+11.5

DETM

L 70-74

−2.5

YSU

W 85-63

+20.5

PFW

W 64-56

+4.5

NKU

L 76-96

−16.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-94

−7.5

BUF

L 76-83

+11.5

STMN

L 61-80

−9.5

MINN

L 65-72

−9.5

YALE

L 67-73

−8.5

MASS

W 79-75

+7.5

IONA

W 80-75

+4.5

RMU

L 78-80

+17.5

WRST

L 58-86

+1.5

IUIN

W 85-75

−5.5

UCSB

W 67-64

−9.5

CAM

L 79-102

+35.5

PFW

W 72-54

−19.5

MILW

W 79-76

+10.5

IUIN

W 75-59

−22.5

NKU

W 80-78

+13.5

CLE

W 88-73

+10.5

OAK

L 63-88

−2.5

YSU

L 81-88

+29.5

RMU

W 71-67

−4.5

CLE

L 82-89

+20.5

WRST

L 75-83

+13.5

NKU

W 87-84

+21.5

DETM

W 76-63

−10.5

PFW

W 76-59

−9.5

MILW

L 72-75

+1.5

OAK

W 73-68

−12.5

DETM

L 70-74

−3.5

YSU

W 85-63

+6.5

PFW

W 64-56

−25.5

NKU

L 76-96

+25.5

over 16under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Wright St 1, Green Bay 1, even 3

Wright StBetterGreen Bay

G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66

GBSmall

G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85

G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30

Even

G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21

Even

G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8

G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78

WRSTSmall

F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49

F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67

Even

F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71

Wright StBetterGreen Bay

WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5

WRSTSmall

GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0

WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6

Even

GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7

Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players

GBSmall

Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

WRSTBig

Bench-3.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestWRST betterGB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wright St

Guards

C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew

Forwards

K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew

Centers

N. Djapa10 min · TR

Green Bay

Guards

O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew

Forwards

M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew

Centers

M. Cicic11 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WRST79.8 #72

GB73.9 #201

Points per possession

WRST1.16 #54

GB1.13 #83

Pace (possessions)

WRST69.1 #171

GB65.2 #339

Shooting

Effective FG%

WRST54.3 #56

GB54.9 #41

3-point %

WRST36.4 #44

GB36.4 #42

3-point attempt rate

WRST34.2 #290

GB37.3 #224

Free throw rate

WRST37.4 #120

GB41.6 #36

Possessions

Turnover rate

WRST16.1 #149

GB15.9 #133

Offensive rebound rate

WRST32.8 #91

GB25.1 #339

Assists per game

WRST13.2 #199

GB13.7 #172

Defense

Points allowed

WRST75.6 #206

GB75.9 #215

Points allowed per possession

WRST1.09 #201

GB1.17 #338

Opponent effective FG%

WRST52.4 #238

GB53.6 #287

Opponent 3-point %

WRST34.3 #203

GB36.3 #316

Turnovers forced

WRST16.6 #179

GB13.2 #350

Defensive rebound rate

WRST70.6 #129

GB70.4 #140

Steals per game

WRST7.1 #114

GB4.2 #361

Blocks per game

WRST4.4 #47

GB2.7 #282

WRST		GB
Scoring
79.8 #72	Points per game	73.9 #201
1.16 #54	Points per possession	1.13 #83
69.1 #171	Pace (possessions)	65.2 #339
Shooting
54.3 #56	Effective FG%	54.9 #41
36.4 #44	3-point %	36.4 #42
34.2 #290	3-point attempt rate	37.3 #224
37.4 #120	Free throw rate	41.6 #36
Possessions
16.1 #149	Turnover rate	15.9 #133
32.8 #91	Offensive rebound rate	25.1 #339
13.2 #199	Assists per game	13.7 #172
Defense
75.6 #206	Points allowed	75.9 #215
1.09 #201	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #338
52.4 #238	Opponent effective FG%	53.6 #287
34.3 #203	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #316
16.6 #179	Turnovers forced	13.2 #350
70.6 #129	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #140
7.1 #114	Steals per game	4.2 #361
4.4 #47	Blocks per game	2.7 #282

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Virginia73–82
Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
Wvs N Kentucky103–90
Wvs Cleveland St90–61
W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Kentucky76–96
Wvs Purdue FW64–56
Wvs Youngstown St85–63
L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.

Wright State Raiders at Green Bay Phoenix

What could decide it: WRST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wright St

Green Bay

The starting fives are even

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Wright St

Green Bay