Oakland Golden Grizzlies at IU Indianapolis Jaguars: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETJames T. Morris Arena · at IU Indy · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Oakland and IU Indy
OAK	This season	IUIN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OAK 83–78 · win probability OAK 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 161.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OAK has more of the edges

OAK 4, IUIN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OAKBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, IUIN 21.7. Allowed: OAK 24.6, IUIN 46.6

OAKBig

OAK offense vs IUIN defense

Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 364th, on the model’s ratings

OAKBig

Three-pointers

OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; IUIN hits 32.4% and allows 38.5%. Threes are 34.0% and 42.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, IUIN the 284th. A record against a soft schedule means less

IUINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, IUIN 15.8%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, IUIN 19.2%

OAKSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, IUIN 28.7%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, IUIN 64.5%

IUINSmall

Home court

IUIN at home. This season: IUIN 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), IUIN 75.3 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; IUIN 52.2 and allows 58.2

Even

IUIN offense vs OAK defense

Offense 249th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, IUIN 14%. Transfers in: OAK 5, IUIN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OAK -5.3	—
Total	—	161.0	—
Projected score	—	OAK 83.2 · IUIN 77.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OAK -3.3	—
1H total	75.2	—
1H projected score	OAK 39.3 · IUIN 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OAK LWWLL	17-14	55%	10-7	—
IUIN WLLLL	12-18	40%	5-7	—

Venue/role: OAK away; IUIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
OAK UUUOO	19-12	61%	15-16
IUIN OUUOO	13-17	43%	5-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OAK	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
IUIN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oakland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ ARK	L62–92LO

IU Indy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ KSU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ LUC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OAK 9–1 IUINOAK leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OAK 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 25, 2025-26	OAK 86 @ IUIN 74	IUIN +5.5	OAK W
Jan 21, 2025-26	IUIN 103 @ OAK 85	OAK -14.5	IUIN W
Feb 12, 2024-25	OAK 82 @ IUIN 67	IUIN +6.5	OAK W
Jan 15, 2024-25	IUIN 59 @ OAK 72	OAK -8.5	OAK W
Feb 17, 2023-24	IUIN 59 @ OAK 107	OAK -19.5	OAK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oakland

31 games played

Straight up

15-16

48% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1648%

L L L L L W W W W L W L L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L W L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1261%

O O U O O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U O O U U U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MICH	L 78-121	+24.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 7	@PUR	L 77-87	+31.5	W +21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 12	@HOU	L 45-78	+30.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 17	@UCF	L 83-87	+13.5	W +9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 21	@EMU	L 91-97	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	vsLAM	W 83-68	-3.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 25	@MONT	W 95-87	+4.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 182
Dec 3	vsPFW	W 101-92	-4.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 193
Dec 6	vsTOL	W 98-97	-4.5	L −3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@UNI	L 63-75	+8.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@NKU	W 82-77	+3.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsMSU	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	@WRST	L 73-88	+3.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@YSU	W 85-83	+1.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	vsRMU	W 96-73	-1.5	W +21.5	161.5	O 169
Jan 9	vsCLE	W 97-74	-15.5	W +7.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 11	vsWRST	L 84-94	-4.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 178
Jan 15	@MILW	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@GB	W 88-63	-4.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsIUIN	L 85-103	-14.5	L −32.5	176.5	O 188
Jan 24	@DETM	W 95-87	-6.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 182
Jan 28	@PFW	W 74-65	-1.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 139
Feb 1	vsNKU	W 76-65	-3.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 141
Feb 4	@CLE	L 78-91	-7.5	L −20.5	170.5	U 169
Feb 12	vsYSU	L 82-86	-3.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@RMU	L 69-93	+1.5	L −22.5	156.5	O 162
Feb 20	vsGB	L 68-73	-6.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 22	vsMILW	W 81-70	-5.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	@IUIN	W 86-74	-5.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 160
Feb 28	vsDETM	L 89-95	-8.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 184
Mar 4	vsNKU	L 84-85	-1.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

−18.5

PUR

L 77-87

+21.5

HOU

L 45-78

−2.5

UCF

L 83-87

+9.5

EMU

L 91-97

−7.5

LAM

W 83-68

+11.5

MONT

W 95-87

+12.5

PFW

W 101-92

+4.5

TOL

W 98-97

−3.5

UNI

L 63-75

−3.5

NKU

W 82-77

+8.5

MSU

L 70-79

+10.5

WRST

L 73-88

−11.5

YSU

W 85-83

+3.5

RMU

W 96-73

+21.5

CLE

W 97-74

+7.5

WRST

L 84-94

−14.5

MILW

W 73-60

+10.5

W 88-63

+20.5

IUIN

L 85-103

−32.5

DETM

W 95-87

+1.5

PFW

W 74-65

+7.5

NKU

W 76-65

+7.5

CLE

L 78-91

−20.5

YSU

L 82-86

−7.5

RMU

L 69-93

−22.5

L 68-73

−11.5

MILW

W 81-70

+5.5

IUIN

W 86-74

+6.5

DETM

L 89-95

−14.5

NKU

L 84-85

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

+42.5

PUR

L 77-87

+5.5

HOU

L 45-78

−15.5

UCF

L 83-87

+6.5

EMU

L 91-97

+34.5

LAM

W 83-68

+2.5

MONT

W 95-87

+19.5

PFW

W 101-92

+30.5

TOL

W 98-97

+28.5

UNI

L 63-75

−11.5

NKU

W 82-77

−4.5

MSU

L 70-79

−6.5

WRST

L 73-88

+1.5

YSU

W 85-83

+10.5

RMU

W 96-73

+7.5

CLE

W 97-74

+1.5

WRST

L 84-94

+16.5

MILW

W 73-60

−33.5

W 88-63

−2.5

IUIN

L 85-103

+11.5

DETM

W 95-87

+14.5

PFW

W 74-65

−23.5

NKU

W 76-65

−25.5

CLE

L 78-91

−1.5

YSU

L 82-86

+12.5

RMU

L 69-93

+5.5

L 68-73

−12.5

MILW

W 81-70

−8.5

IUIN

W 86-74

−9.5

DETM

L 89-95

+23.5

NKU

L 84-85

+7.5

over 19under 12avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

IU Indy

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U U O O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OSU	L 102-118	+33.5	W +17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 6	vsLIU	L 90-94	-4.5	L −8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 8	@BTLR	L 80-112	+20.5	L −11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 14	@EMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@CHSO	L 91-103	-1.5	L −13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	vsALST	L 80-101	-2.5	L −23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	@AF	L 85-98	+3.5	L −9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsMORE	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	181.5	U 165
Dec 3	@DETM	L 78-92	+3.5	L −10.5	180.5	U 170
Dec 6	vsYSU	L 55-78	+6.5	L −16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 11	vsGB	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 22	@GCU	L 78-91	+23.5	W +10.5	169.5	U 169
Dec 29	@CLE	L 86-99	+1.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 185
Jan 1	@NKU	L 72-81	+13.5	W +4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsWRST	L 77-81	+8.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 9	@GB	L 59-75	+6.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 134
Jan 11	@MILW	L 83-95	+8.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsRMU	W 96-93	+5.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 189
Jan 17	vsDETM	L 77-80	-1.5	L −4.5	169.5	U 157
Jan 21	@OAK	W 103-85	+14.5	W +32.5	176.5	O 188
Jan 28	@RMU	L 58-74	+8.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 132
Jan 30	@YSU	L 76-85	+10.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 7	vsCLE	W 82-74	-2.5	W +5.5	169.5	U 156
Feb 10	vsMILW	L 88-92	+2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 12	vsNKU	L 81-84	+5.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 165
Feb 15	@PFW	L 78-83	+7.5	W +2.5	159.5	O 161
Feb 19	@WRST	L 73-85	+11.5	L −0.5	160.5	U 158
Feb 25	vsOAK	L 74-86	+5.5	L −6.5	169.5	U 160
Feb 28	vsPFW	L 81-87	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 168
Mar 2	@CLE	L 93-101	-2.5	L −10.5	169.5	O 194

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+17.5

LIU

L 90-94

−8.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−11.5

EMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CHSO

L 91-103

−13.5

ALST

L 80-101

−23.5

L 85-98

−9.5

W 85-80

+1.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−16.5

L 75-85

−13.5

GCU

L 78-91

+10.5

CLE

L 86-99

−11.5

NKU

L 72-81

+4.5

WRST

L 77-81

+4.5

L 59-75

−9.5

MILW

L 83-95

−3.5

RMU

W 96-93

+8.5

DETM

L 77-80

−4.5

OAK

W 103-85

+32.5

RMU

L 58-74

−7.5

YSU

L 76-85

+1.5

CLE

W 82-74

+5.5

MILW

L 88-92

−1.5

NKU

L 81-84

+2.5

PFW

L 78-83

+2.5

WRST

L 73-85

−0.5

OAK

L 74-86

−6.5

PFW

L 81-87

−4.5

CLE

L 93-101

−10.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+47.5

LIU

L 90-94

−1.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−0.5

EMU

W 90-83

−13.5

CHSO

L 91-103

+5.5

ALST

L 80-101

−0.5

L 85-98

+7.5

W 85-80

−16.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−38.5

L 75-85

−5.5

GCU

L 78-91

−0.5

CLE

L 86-99

+12.5

NKU

L 72-81

−23.5

WRST

L 77-81

−4.5

L 59-75

−22.5

MILW

L 83-95

+12.5

RMU

W 96-93

+28.5

DETM

L 77-80

−12.5

OAK

W 103-85

+11.5

RMU

L 58-74

−30.5

YSU

L 76-85

+7.5

CLE

W 82-74

−13.5

MILW

L 88-92

+21.5

NKU

L 81-84

+0.5

PFW

L 78-83

+1.5

WRST

L 73-85

−2.5

OAK

L 74-86

−9.5

PFW

L 81-87

+4.5

CLE

L 93-101

+24.5

over 13under 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oakland has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 2, IU Indy 1, even 2

OaklandBetterIU Indy

G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22

Even

G B. Smith TR8.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 18

G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41

IUINBig

G G. Etchison TR9 pts · 1.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 93

F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59

OAKSmall

G J. Clarke TR3.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 34

F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79

OAKBig

F K. Tinsley7.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17

F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

Even

F R. Hagy2.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 2

OaklandBetterIU Indy

OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8

OAKBig

IUIN defense364th of 366 · -12.3

OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8

Even

IUIN offense249th of 366 · -7.5

Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players

IUINSmall

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players

OAKSmall

Frontcourt-3.2 · 2 players

Bench-1.7 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestOAK betterIUIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Oakland

Guards

N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew

Forwards

B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew

IU Indy

Guards

B. Smith24 min · TRG. Etchison14 min · TRJ. Clarke13 min · TRM. Pastorcic-StraunNewP. HeissNewT. DrexlerNew

Forwards

K. Tinsley18 minR. Hagy11 minP. IdiaruNewA. ArnettNewM. StackhouseNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OAK81.6 #37

IUIN80.9 #49

Points per possession

OAK1.14 #66

IUIN1.07 #200

Pace (possessions)

OAK71.1 #67

IUIN75.3 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

OAK52.7 #114

IUIN52.2 #136

3-point %

OAK34.7 #131

IUIN32.4 #258

3-point attempt rate

OAK34.0 #294

IUIN42.1 #134

Free throw rate

OAK38.1 #100

IUIN21.7 #365

Possessions

Turnover rate

OAK14.7 #47

IUIN15.8 #127

Offensive rebound rate

OAK31.3 #152

IUIN28.7 #243

Assists per game

OAK15.7 #60

IUIN18.9 #3

Defense

Points allowed

OAK82.8 #344

IUIN89.2 #364

Points allowed per possession

OAK1.17 #340

IUIN1.19 #353

Opponent effective FG%

OAK54.7 #322

IUIN58.2 #362

Opponent 3-point %

OAK34.3 #206

IUIN38.5 #361

Turnovers forced

OAK15.1 #275

IUIN19.2 #41

Defensive rebound rate

OAK65.6 #324

IUIN64.5 #348

Steals per game

OAK7.2 #106

IUIN8.0 #39

Blocks per game

OAK3.7 #110

IUIN2.9 #243

OAK		IUIN
Scoring
81.6 #37	Points per game	80.9 #49
1.14 #66	Points per possession	1.07 #200
71.1 #67	Pace (possessions)	75.3 #4
Shooting
52.7 #114	Effective FG%	52.2 #136
34.7 #131	3-point %	32.4 #258
34.0 #294	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #134
38.1 #100	Free throw rate	21.7 #365
Possessions
14.7 #47	Turnover rate	15.8 #127
31.3 #152	Offensive rebound rate	28.7 #243
15.7 #60	Assists per game	18.9 #3
Defense
82.8 #344	Points allowed	89.2 #364
1.17 #340	Points allowed per possession	1.19 #353
54.7 #322	Opponent effective FG%	58.2 #362
34.3 #206	Opponent 3-point %	38.5 #361
15.1 #275	Turnovers forced	19.2 #41
65.6 #324	Defensive rebound rate	64.5 #348
7.2 #106	Steals per game	8.0 #39
3.7 #110	Blocks per game	2.9 #243

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Kentucky84–85
Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
W@ IU Indy86–74
Wvs Milwaukee81–70
Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

IU Indy

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cleveland St93–101
Lvs Purdue FW81–87
Lvs Oakland74–86
L@ Wright St73–85
L@ Purdue FW78–83

A week or more of rest.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at IU Indianapolis Jaguars

What could decide it: OAK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oakland

IU Indy

Oakland has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Oakland

IU Indy