Milwaukee Panthers at Northern Illinois Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETNIU Convocation Center · at N Illinois · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Milwaukee and N Illinois
MILW	This season	NIU
0-0	Record	1-0
0-0	ATS	0-1
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MILW 78–74 · win probability MILW 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MILW has more of the edges

MILW 3, NIU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MILWBig

MILW offense vs NIU defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings

MILWBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, NIU 21.7%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, NIU 16.3%

MILWSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, NIU 30.3%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, NIU 70.0%

NIUSmall

Home court

NIU at home. This season: NIU 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away

NIUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, NIU 38.3. Allowed: MILW 35.9, NIU 38.3

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6

Even

NIU offense vs MILW defense

Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, NIU the 167th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.0% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, NIU 30%. Transfers in: MILW 3, NIU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), NIU 69.0 (181st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MILW -3.5	—
Total	—	151.7	—
Projected score	—	MILW 77.6 · NIU 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MILW -2.2	—
1H total	70.9	—
1H projected score	MILW 36.5 · NIU 34.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	5-12	—
NIU LWLLL	13-15	46%	3-8	—

Venue/role: MILW away; NIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20
NIU UUUOU	8-20	29%	7-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ SDST	W88–87WO
Dec 12	vs UIC	L69–80LO
Dec 15	@ LR	W92–72WO

N Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ LIN	L64–99LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

W W L W W L L L W L L W L L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-2029%

O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@BRAD	L 55-84	+18.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 13	@ELON	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsCMU	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 31	vsBUF	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	@KENT	L 73-77	+16.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsTOL	L 61-75	+7.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 13	@EMU	L 59-77	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	vsMASS	W 70-68	+8.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	@OHIO	L 77-80	+11.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 24	@BALL	L 53-58	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 27	vsWMU	W 85-65	-1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 31	@M-OH	L 61-85	+16.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 7	@GAST	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 11	vsBGSU	L 52-68	+7.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	@CMU	L 46-88	+4.5	L −37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@BUF	W 72-70	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	vsOHIO	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 24	@TOL	L 69-79	+12.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	vsBALL	L 43-79	-1.5	L −37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsKENT	L 76-102	+10.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	@AKR	L 55-94	+23.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−10.5

ELON

L 79-85

+5.5

CMU

W 74-73

−1.5

BUF

L 67-81

−7.5

KENT

L 73-77

+12.5

TOL

L 61-75

−6.5

EMU

L 59-77

−10.5

MASS

W 70-68

+10.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+8.5

BALL

L 53-58

+0.5

WMU

W 85-65

+18.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−7.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−8.5

CMU

L 46-88

−37.5

BUF

W 72-70

+11.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−1.5

TOL

L 69-79

+2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−37.5

KENT

L 76-102

−15.5

AKR

L 55-94

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−7.5

ELON

L 79-85

+7.5

CMU

W 74-73

−2.5

BUF

L 67-81

−4.5

KENT

L 73-77

−7.5

TOL

L 61-75

−25.5

EMU

L 59-77

−5.5

MASS

W 70-68

−19.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+2.5

BALL

L 53-58

−30.5

WMU

W 85-65

+3.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−12.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−24.5

CMU

L 46-88

−12.5

BUF

W 72-70

−3.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−8.5

TOL

L 69-79

−2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−11.5

KENT

L 76-102

+29.5

AKR

L 55-94

−6.5

over 8under 20avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee has the better starters

Position by position: Milwaukee 2, N Illinois 0, even 3

MilwaukeeBetterN Illinois

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

Even

G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

Even

G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

MILWSmall

G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

MILWBig

G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

MilwaukeeBetterN Illinois

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

MILWBig

NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

Even

NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

MILWSmall

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

MILWBig

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

MILWBig

Bench-3.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestMILW betterNIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

N Illinois

Guards

M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew

Forwards

T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MILW74.7 #173

NIU66.3 #341

Points per possession

MILW1.09 #172

NIU0.96 #354

Pace (possessions)

MILW69.1 #174

NIU69.0 #181

Shooting

Effective FG%

MILW49.9 #242

NIU47.6 #324

3-point %

MILW32.3 #266

NIU30.9 #323

3-point attempt rate

MILW38.1 #212

NIU45.0 #66

Free throw rate

MILW32.1 #256

NIU38.3 #95

Possessions

Turnover rate

MILW15.3 #85

NIU21.7 #360

Offensive rebound rate

MILW33.0 #88

NIU30.3 #187

Assists per game

MILW12.9 #220

NIU11.6 #308

Defense

Points allowed

MILW79.9 #317

NIU78.9 #291

Points allowed per possession

MILW1.15 #328

NIU1.15 #323

Opponent effective FG%

MILW55.5 #340

NIU55.6 #342

Opponent 3-point %

MILW36.5 #329

NIU36.3 #315

Turnovers forced

MILW15.8 #232

NIU16.3 #199

Defensive rebound rate

MILW70.8 #121

NIU70.0 #161

Steals per game

MILW6.5 #176

NIU5.6 #288

Blocks per game

MILW3.0 #230

NIU1.9 #352

MILW		NIU
Scoring
74.7 #173	Points per game	66.3 #341
1.09 #172	Points per possession	0.96 #354
69.1 #174	Pace (possessions)	69.0 #181
Shooting
49.9 #242	Effective FG%	47.6 #324
32.3 #266	3-point %	30.9 #323
38.1 #212	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #66
32.1 #256	Free throw rate	38.3 #95
Possessions
15.3 #85	Turnover rate	21.7 #360
33.0 #88	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #187
12.9 #220	Assists per game	11.6 #308
Defense
79.9 #317	Points allowed	78.9 #291
1.15 #328	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #323
55.5 #340	Opponent effective FG%	55.6 #342
36.5 #329	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #315
15.8 #232	Turnovers forced	16.3 #199
70.8 #121	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #161
6.5 #176	Steals per game	5.6 #288
3.0 #230	Blocks per game	1.9 #352

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Akron55–94
Lvs Kent State76–102
Lvs Ball State43–79
L@ Toledo69–79
Lvs Ohio66–74

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee Panthers at Northern Illinois Huskies

What could decide it: MILW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

N Illinois

Milwaukee has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Milwaukee

N Illinois