Illinois State Redbirds at Chicago State Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETJones Convocation Center · at Chicago St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Illinois St and Chicago St
ILST	This season	CHST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILST 79–62 · win probability ILST 93%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

ILST 7, CHST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8; CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7

ILSTBig

CHST offense vs ILST defense

Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings

ILSTBig

ILST offense vs CHST defense

Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings

ILSTBig

Three-pointers

ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%; CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 43.3% and 30.9% of their shots

ILSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ILST 28.0%, CHST 28.3%. Defensive: ILST 74.6%, CHST 65.0%

CHSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ILST 16.8%, CHST 15.7%. Forced: ILST 16.0%, CHST 20.1%

Context

Schedule so far

ILST has played the 135th-hardest schedule, CHST the 259th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ILSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ILST 31.6, CHST 30.0. Allowed: ILST 32.3, CHST 38.0

ILSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ILST 37%, CHST 8%. Transfers in: ILST 5, CHST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CHSTSmall

Home court

CHST at home. This season: CHST 0-0 at home, ILST 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ILST plays 67.7 a game (241st fastest), CHST 66.0 (314th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILST -17.3	—
Total	—	141.0	—
Projected score	—	ILST 79.2 · CHST 61.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILST -10.4	—
1H total	66.0	—
1H projected score	ILST 38.2 · CHST 27.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILST LWWWL	19-16	54%	6-8	—
CHST WWLLW	15-16	48%	6-4	—

Venue/role: ILST away; CHST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILST UUOUO	15-20	43%	22-13
CHST UUUOO	15-16	48%	6-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
CHST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Illinois St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs LBSU	W82–80LO
Dec 13	vs NDSU	W77–68WO

Chicago St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ VAL	W63–62WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ILST 3–0 CHSTILST leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · ILST has won the last 3 meetings · ILST 2-0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	CHST 53 @ ILST 95	ILST -20.5	ILST W
Dec 19, 2022-23	CHST 52 @ ILST 66	ILST -7.5	ILST W
Dec 11, 2021-22	ILST 81 @ CHST 71	CHST +10	P

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Illinois St

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

L W L W W W W W W L W W W W L L L W W L W L W L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W L L W W W L W W W W W W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

U U U O U O U O O O U U U U O U O O U U U U O O O U U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@OHIO	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 9	vsCOR	W 76-65	-6.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 14	vsUSC	L 67-87	+15.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 16	@LBSU	W 82-80	-8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 23	vsCCU	W 94-42	-12.5	W +39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 27	vsCLT	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsFUR	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsEKU	W 89-78	-12.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 6	vsCHST	W 95-53	-20.5	W +21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsUSU	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 18	@SIU	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsINST	W 85-65	-13.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	@DRKE	W 73-56	-4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 1	vsEVAN	W 73-47	-12.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 7	@VAL	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsUIC	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	@INST	L 89-94	-6.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	vsBRAD	W 88-62	-5.5	W +20.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNI	W 59-54	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	@BEL	L 69-80	+5.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 28	@MUR	W 70-65	+3.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 3	vsSIU	L 50-54	-8.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 104
Feb 6	vsDRKE	W 86-76	-10.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	@EVAN	L 80-88	-10.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	vsVAL	W 86-64	-8.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UIC	L 56-83	-1.5	L −28.5	140.5	U 139
Feb 18	vsMUR	W 78-61	-2.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 139
Feb 21	@BRAD	L 60-74	+3.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 25	@UNI	W 71-69	+4.5	W +6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	vsBEL	W 81-74	+1.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 155
Mar 6	vsUNI	L 52-74	+1.5	L −20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsKENT	W 79-58	-4.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 137
Mar 22	@WAKE	W 78-75	+8.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 25	@DAY	W 61-55	+7.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsAUB	L 66-88	+7.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−2.5

COR

W 76-65

+4.5

USC

L 67-87

−4.5

LBSU

W 82-80

−6.5

CCU

W 94-42

+39.5

CLT

W 79-69

+4.5

FUR

W 72-65

+3.5

EKU

W 89-78

−1.5

CHST

W 95-53

+21.5

USU

L 78-83

+3.5

SIU

W 75-68

+8.5

INST

W 85-65

+6.5

DRKE

W 73-56

+12.5

EVAN

W 73-47

+13.5

VAL

L 71-77

−12.5

UIC

L 59-63

−14.5

INST

L 89-94

−11.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+20.5

UNI

W 59-54

−1.5

BEL

L 69-80

−5.5

MUR

W 70-65

+8.5

SIU

L 50-54

−12.5

DRKE

W 86-76

−0.5

EVAN

L 80-88

−18.5

VAL

W 86-64

+13.5

UIC

L 56-83

−28.5

MUR

W 78-61

+14.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−10.5

UNI

W 71-69

+6.5

BEL

W 81-74

+8.5

UNI

L 52-74

−20.5

KENT

W 79-58

+16.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+11.5

DAY

W 61-55

+13.5

AUB

L 66-88

−14.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−21.5

COR

W 76-65

−23.5

USC

L 67-87

−1.5

LBSU

W 82-80

+20.5

CCU

W 94-42

−10.5

CLT

W 79-69

+8.5

FUR

W 72-65

−8.5

EKU

W 89-78

+12.5

CHST

W 95-53

+3.5

USU

L 78-83

+12.5

SIU

W 75-68

−10.5

INST

W 85-65

−2.5

DRKE

W 73-56

−16.5

EVAN

W 73-47

−24.5

VAL

L 71-77

+9.5

UIC

L 59-63

−19.5

INST

L 89-94

+34.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+2.5

UNI

W 59-54

−19.5

BEL

L 69-80

−1.5

MUR

W 70-65

−24.5

SIU

L 50-54

−36.5

DRKE

W 86-76

+17.5

EVAN

L 80-88

+30.5

VAL

W 86-64

+11.5

UIC

L 56-83

−1.5

MUR

W 78-61

−19.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−11.5

UNI

W 71-69

+7.5

BEL

W 81-74

+4.5

UNI

L 52-74

−4.5

KENT

W 79-58

−17.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+0.5

DAY

W 61-55

−24.5

AUB

L 66-88

+4.5

over 15under 20avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Chicago St

31 games played

Straight up

6-25

19% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2519%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O O U O U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 20	@IOWA	L 54-93	+31.5	L −7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	@PFW	L 77-90	+12.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 167
Nov 28	@YSU	L 64-87	+14.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 6	@ILST	L 53-95	+20.5	L −21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 14	@LUC	W 84-75	+15.5	W +24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 16	@BGSU	L 55-76	+21.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 131
Dec 20	@IU	L 58-78	+38.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 2	vsWAG	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 4	vsLIU	L 55-74	+7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 8	@FDU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Jan 10	@STO	L 82-85	+4.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsLEM	L 57-72	+6.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsNHVN	L 56-62	-1.5	L −7.5	129.5	U 118
Jan 23	@SFPA	L 60-81	+3.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 25	@MERC	L 59-61	+9.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 31	vsMERC	W 78-74	+2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	@CCSU	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 7	@NHVN	W 63-57	+5.5	W +11.5	127.5	U 120
Feb 9	vsSFPA	W 80-75	-3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsSTO	W 68-55	+2.5	W +15.5	131.5	U 123
Feb 14	@LEM	L 63-81	+6.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 144
Feb 19	vsFDU	L 59-60	+1.5	W +0.5	131.5	U 119
Feb 21	vsCCSU	W 70-51	+3.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 26	@LIU	L 56-73	+11.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 129
Feb 28	@WAG	L 61-80	+4.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 141
Mar 4	@LIU	L 75-79	+10.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

IOWA

L 54-93

−7.5

PFW

L 77-90

−0.5

YSU

L 64-87

−8.5

ILST

L 53-95

−21.5

LUC

W 84-75

+24.5

BGSU

L 55-76

+0.5

L 58-78

+18.5

WAG

L 72-79

−5.5

LIU

L 55-74

−11.5

FDU

L 63-70

−2.5

STO

L 82-85

+1.5

LEM

L 57-72

−8.5

NHVN

L 56-62

−7.5

SFPA

L 60-81

−17.5

MERC

L 59-61

+7.5

MERC

W 78-74

+6.5

CCSU

L 67-78

−2.5

NHVN

W 63-57

+11.5

SFPA

W 80-75

+1.5

STO

W 68-55

+15.5

LEM

L 63-81

−11.5

FDU

L 59-60

+0.5

CCSU

W 70-51

+22.5

LIU

L 56-73

−5.5

WAG

L 61-80

−14.5

LIU

L 75-79

+6.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

IOWA

L 54-93

+4.5

PFW

L 77-90

+17.5

YSU

L 64-87

+4.5

ILST

L 53-95

+3.5

LUC

W 84-75

+18.5

BGSU

L 55-76

−17.5

L 58-78

−16.5

WAG

L 72-79

+4.5

LIU

L 55-74

−22.5

FDU

L 63-70

−10.5

STO

L 82-85

+31.5

LEM

L 57-72

−17.5

NHVN

L 56-62

−11.5

SFPA

L 60-81

−2.5

MERC

L 59-61

−11.5

MERC

W 78-74

+22.5

CCSU

L 67-78

+6.5

NHVN

W 63-57

−7.5

SFPA

W 80-75

+10.5

STO

W 68-55

−8.5

LEM

L 63-81

−0.5

FDU

L 59-60

−12.5

CCSU

W 70-51

−17.5

LIU

L 56-73

−12.5

WAG

L 61-80

+6.5

LIU

L 75-79

+16.5

over 15under 16avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois St has the better starters

Position by position: Illinois St 4, Chicago St 0, even 1

Illinois StBetterChicago St

G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57

ILSTBig

G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 3

G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51

ILSTBig

G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3

G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

ILSTSmall

G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 2

G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24

Even

F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 14

G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

ILSTSmall

F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1

Illinois StBetterChicago St

ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9

ILSTBig

CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0

ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9

ILSTBig

CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2

Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players

ILSTSmall

Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players

Bench+3.4 · 4 players

ILSTBig

Bench-2.7 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestILST betterCHST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Illinois St

Guards

M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min

Forwards

C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew

Chicago St

Guards

M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew

Forwards

B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew

Centers

B. KalonjiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ILST74.1 #191

CHST65.2 #348

Points per possession

ILST1.09 #151

CHST0.99 #337

Pace (possessions)

ILST67.7 #241

CHST66.0 #314

Shooting

Effective FG%

ILST53.6 #77

CHST45.3 #358

3-point %

ILST34.9 #126

CHST32.1 #275

3-point attempt rate

ILST43.3 #106

CHST30.9 #341

Free throw rate

ILST31.6 #266

CHST30.0 #311

Possessions

Turnover rate

ILST16.8 #193

CHST15.7 #114

Offensive rebound rate

ILST28.0 #268

CHST28.3 #255

Assists per game

ILST13.5 #179

CHST11.7 #305

Defense

Points allowed

ILST69.1 #49

CHST76.5 #231

Points allowed per possession

ILST1.02 #48

CHST1.16 #332

Opponent effective FG%

ILST49.8 #90

CHST56.7 #354

Opponent 3-point %

ILST33.0 #122

CHST35.6 #290

Turnovers forced

ILST16.0 #221

CHST20.1 #21

Defensive rebound rate

ILST74.6 #13

CHST65.0 #339

Steals per game

ILST5.5 #294

CHST8.2 #33

Blocks per game

ILST2.3 #326

CHST1.3 #365

ILST		CHST
Scoring
74.1 #191	Points per game	65.2 #348
1.09 #151	Points per possession	0.99 #337
67.7 #241	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #314
Shooting
53.6 #77	Effective FG%	45.3 #358
34.9 #126	3-point %	32.1 #275
43.3 #106	3-point attempt rate	30.9 #341
31.6 #266	Free throw rate	30.0 #311
Possessions
16.8 #193	Turnover rate	15.7 #114
28.0 #268	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #255
13.5 #179	Assists per game	11.7 #305
Defense
69.1 #49	Points allowed	76.5 #231
1.02 #48	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #332
49.8 #90	Opponent effective FG%	56.7 #354
33.0 #122	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #290
16.0 #221	Turnovers forced	20.1 #21
74.6 #13	Defensive rebound rate	65.0 #339
5.5 #294	Steals per game	8.2 #33
2.3 #326	Blocks per game	1.3 #365

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn66–88
W@ Dayton61–55
W@ Wake Forest78–75
Wvs Kent State79–58
Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.

Chicago St

6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island75–79
L@ Wagner61–80
L@ Long Island56–73
Wvs C Connecticut70–51
Lvs FDU59–60

A week or more of rest.

Illinois State Redbirds at Chicago State Cougars

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Illinois St

Chicago St

Illinois St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Illinois St

Chicago St