Long Island University Sharks at George Washington Revolutionaries: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETCharles E. Smith Center · at G Washington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Long Island and G Washington
LIU	This season	GW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GW 82–63 · win probability GW 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

LIU 1, GW 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GWBig

LIU offense vs GW defense

Offense 339th of 366 against a defense 95th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LIU has played the 290th-hardest schedule, GW the 95th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GWBig

GW offense vs LIU defense

Offense 112th of 366 against a defense 283rd, on the model’s ratings

GWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIU 33.9%, GW 35.8%. Defensive: LIU 67.0%, GW 71.3%

LIUSmall

Three-pointers

LIU hits 35.8% and allows 32.2%; GW hits 35.1% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 29.3% and 47.0% of their shots

GWSmall

Home court

GW at home. This season: GW 0-0 at home, LIU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: LIU plays 68.5 a game (206th fastest), GW 70.2 (107th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIU 52.8 and allows 50.0; GW 54.4 and allows 52.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIU 6%, GW 13%. Transfers in: LIU 6, GW 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIU 34.0, GW 34.9. Allowed: LIU 34.7, GW 35.0

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIU 19.0%, GW 18.1%. Forced: LIU 18.7%, GW 17.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GW -18.4	—
Total	—	145.2	—
Projected score	—	LIU 63.4 · GW 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -10.8	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	LIU 28.6 · GW 39.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIU WLWWL	17-18	49%	8-11	—
GW LLLWL	15-19	44%	8-7	—

Venue/role: LIU away; GW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIU UOUOO	15-20	43%	24-11
GW UUOOU	16-18	47%	18-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
GW	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Long Island

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ ND	L67–89LO
Dec 12	vs PRIN	No recent meeting

G Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs AMER	W107–67WO
Dec 12	@ BC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Long Island

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

17-18

49% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

L W W W L L W L W W L L L W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1849%

L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L L L L L W W L L W L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U O O U U U O O U O O U O U U U U O U U U U U U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ND	L 67-89	+15.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 6	@IUIN	W 94-90	+4.5	W +8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 11	@AF	W 76-72	-5.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsJMU	W 88-79	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 20	@FOR	L 53-69	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 122
Nov 22	@ILL	L 58-98	+34.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	@MOST	W 75-61	+4.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsWIN	L 92-94	+5.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	@LEH	W 87-82	-1.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsLAS	W 70-60	-2.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 130
Dec 16	@MSST	L 83-87	+16.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	@FIU	L 79-86	+6.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 165
Dec 29	@UGA	L 74-89	+30.5	W +15.5	179.5	U 163
Jan 2	vsCCSU	W 84-78	-6.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 4	@CHST	W 74-55	-7.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsMERC	W 60-58	-8.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	vsSFPA	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 17	@FDU	W 66-59	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 19	@LEM	L 77-83	-1.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 23	@STO	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 29	vsLEM	W 83-61	-8.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 31	@CCSU	W 80-59	-2.5	W +18.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 5	vsNHVN	W 60-55	-9.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsSTO	W 61-54	-10.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 115
Feb 12	@WAG	W 67-57	-6.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 124
Feb 14	@NHVN	L 52-55	-6.5	L −9.5	129.5	U 107
Feb 16	vsWAG	W 83-65	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 19	@SFPA	W 91-89	-9.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 180
Feb 21	@MERC	L 83-91	-3.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	vsCHST	W 73-56	-11.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsFDU	W 74-60	-9.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsCHST	W 79-75	-10.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 154
Mar 7	vsWAG	W 64-56	-6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 120
Mar 10	vsMERC	W 79-70	-4.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 20	vsARIZ	L 58-92	+30.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-89

−6.5

IUIN

W 94-90

+8.5

W 76-72

−1.5

JMU

W 88-79

+5.5

FOR

L 53-69

−11.5

ILL

L 58-98

−5.5

MOST

W 75-61

+18.5

WIN

L 92-94

+3.5

LEH

W 87-82

+3.5

LAS

W 70-60

+7.5

MSST

L 83-87

+12.5

FIU

L 79-86

−0.5

UGA

L 74-89

+15.5

CCSU

W 84-78

−0.5

CHST

W 74-55

+11.5

MERC

W 60-58

−6.5

SFPA

W 67-63

−11.5

FDU

W 66-59

−0.5

LEM

L 77-83

−7.5

STO

W 66-63

−2.5

LEM

W 83-61

+13.5

CCSU

W 80-59

+18.5

NHVN

W 60-55

−4.5

STO

W 61-54

−3.5

WAG

W 67-57

+3.5

NHVN

L 52-55

−9.5

WAG

W 83-65

+7.5

SFPA

W 91-89

−7.5

MERC

L 83-91

−11.5

CHST

W 73-56

+5.5

FDU

W 74-60

+4.5

CHST

W 79-75

−6.5

WAG

W 64-56

+1.5

MERC

W 79-70

+4.5

ARIZ

L 58-92

−3.5

covered 17didn’t cover 18avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-89

+20.5

IUIN

W 94-90

−1.5

W 76-72

+10.5

JMU

W 88-79

+19.5

FOR

L 53-69

−23.5

ILL

L 58-98

−4.5

MOST

W 75-61

−9.5

WIN

L 92-94

+32.5

LEH

W 87-82

+26.5

LAS

W 70-60

−13.5

MSST

L 83-87

+17.5

FIU

L 79-86

+3.5

UGA

L 74-89

−16.5

CCSU

W 84-78

+15.5

CHST

W 74-55

−22.5

MERC

W 60-58

−21.5

SFPA

W 67-63

−18.5

FDU

W 66-59

−18.5

LEM

L 77-83

+9.5

STO

W 66-63

−8.5

LEM

W 83-61

−3.5

CCSU

W 80-59

−3.5

NHVN

W 60-55

−20.5

STO

W 61-54

−17.5

WAG

W 67-57

−11.5

NHVN

L 52-55

−22.5

WAG

W 83-65

+9.5

SFPA

W 91-89

+31.5

MERC

L 83-91

+33.5

CHST

W 73-56

−12.5

FDU

W 74-60

−3.5

CHST

W 79-75

+16.5

WAG

W 64-56

−18.5

MERC

W 79-70

+14.5

ARIZ

L 58-92

+2.5

over 15under 20avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

G Washington

34 games played

Straight up

18-16

53% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1653%

W W W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L W W W W L W L L L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U O O O U O O O U O U U O U U O O U U U U U O U U O O U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 10	vsDEL	L 58-70	-21.5	L −33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsFLA	L 70-80	+14.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 31	@RICH	W 99-85	-2.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 3	vsLAS	W 77-55	-16.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 6	@DAY	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsLUC	W 101-66	-14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsDAV	L 79-84	-9.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 19	@GMU	L 64-69	+1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsRICH	W 85-69	-10.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@SLU	L 76-79	+10.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsFOR	L 65-79	-11.5	L −25.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 4	@JOES	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@DUQ	L 86-88	-1.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 174
Feb 10	vsURI	W 75-70	-5.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 13	vsGMU	W 72-53	-3.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 17	@VCU	L 75-89	+6.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 24	@LAS	W 104-77	-8.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 181
Feb 27	vsDAY	L 66-68	-2.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsSBU	W 91-82	-7.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	@LUC	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsFOR	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsSLU	L 81-88	+6.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 18	@UVU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 157
Mar 22	@UNM	L 61-86	+6.5	L −18.5	161.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

DEL

L 58-70

−33.5

FLA

L 70-80

+4.5

RICH

W 99-85

+11.5

LAS

W 77-55

+5.5

DAY

L 72-79

−4.5

LUC

W 101-66

+20.5

DAV

L 79-84

−14.5

GMU

L 64-69

−3.5

RICH

W 85-69

+5.5

SLU

L 76-79

+7.5

FOR

L 65-79

−25.5

JOES

L 73-76

−4.5

DUQ

L 86-88

−3.5

URI

W 75-70

−0.5

GMU

W 72-53

+15.5

VCU

L 75-89

−7.5

LAS

W 104-77

+18.5

DAY

L 66-68

−4.5

SBU

W 91-82

+1.5

LUC

L 62-68

−15.5

FOR

W 66-62

−3.5

SLU

L 81-88

−0.5

UVU

W 79-78

+2.5

UNM

L 61-86

−18.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

DEL

L 58-70

−24.5

FLA

L 70-80

−12.5

RICH

W 99-85

+21.5

LAS

W 77-55

−18.5

DAY

L 72-79

−3.5

LUC

W 101-66

+12.5

DAV

L 79-84

+12.5

GMU

L 64-69

−20.5

RICH

W 85-69

−5.5

SLU

L 76-79

−12.5

FOR

L 65-79

−6.5

JOES

L 73-76

−6.5

DUQ

L 86-88

+15.5

URI

W 75-70

−6.5

GMU

W 72-53

−24.5

VCU

L 75-89

+2.5

LAS

W 104-77

+34.5

DAY

L 66-68

−18.5

SBU

W 91-82

+15.5

LUC

L 62-68

−18.5

FOR

W 66-62

−16.5

SLU

L 81-88

+10.5

UVU

W 79-78

+4.5

UNM

L 61-86

−14.5

over 16under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

G Washington has the better starters

Position by position: Long Island 0, G Washington 3, even 2

Long IslandBetterG Washington

G J. Pickett TR5.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 2

GWBig

G A. Phillips TR13.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

G K. Jones TR4.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 13

GWSmall

G O. Witherspoon TR7.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 34

G D. Davis TR0.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Aranguren8.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 70

G D. Jean-Charles TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G F. Kossaras TR4.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 37

F J. Johnson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

GWSmall

F A. Shaw TR4.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

Long IslandBetterG Washington

LIU offense339th of 366 · -11.1

GWBig

GW defense95th of 366 · -0.5

LIU defense283rd of 366 · -7.1

GWBig

GW offense112th of 366 · -1.9

Backcourt-6.7 · 4 players

GWBig

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-1.6 · 3 players

GWSmall

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLIU betterGW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Long Island

Guards

J. Pickett27 min · TRK. Jones11 min · TRD. Davis9 min · TRD. Jean-Charles9 min · TRM. Ndlovu-Fraser8 minV. AlletteNew

Forwards

J. Johnson15 min · TRJ. Howard7 min · TRX. Li4 minM. BewleyNewR. BewleyNewT. BowlesNew

G Washington

Guards

A. Phillips34 min · TRO. Witherspoon28 min · TRJ. Aranguren24 minF. Kossaras16 min · TRT. Arceneaux16 min · TRA. Arrington1 min

Forwards

A. Shaw26 min · TRA. Vukovic15 min · TRD. James15 min · TRM. Arrington14 min · TRR. Frost7 min · TRL. UrbihaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIU73.6 #214

GW80.9 #46

Points per possession

LIU1.08 #185

GW1.15 #63

Pace (possessions)

LIU68.5 #206

GW70.2 #107

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIU52.8 #112

GW54.4 #55

3-point %

LIU35.8 #67

GW35.1 #106

3-point attempt rate

LIU29.3 #354

GW47.0 #33

Free throw rate

LIU34.0 #207

GW34.9 #184

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIU19.0 #320

GW18.1 #276

Offensive rebound rate

LIU33.9 #70

GW35.8 #26

Assists per game

LIU13.7 #170

GW15.4 #69

Defense

Points allowed

LIU71.7 #99

GW75.2 #195

Points allowed per possession

LIU1.04 #80

GW1.08 #149

Opponent effective FG%

LIU50.0 #102

GW52.4 #234

Opponent 3-point %

LIU32.2 #72

GW33.9 #175

Turnovers forced

LIU18.7 #61

GW17.8 #110

Defensive rebound rate

LIU67.0 #299

GW71.3 #91

Steals per game

LIU7.8 #56

GW7.2 #103

Blocks per game

LIU5.4 #9

GW3.5 #142

LIU		GW
Scoring
73.6 #214	Points per game	80.9 #46
1.08 #185	Points per possession	1.15 #63
68.5 #206	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #107
Shooting
52.8 #112	Effective FG%	54.4 #55
35.8 #67	3-point %	35.1 #106
29.3 #354	3-point attempt rate	47.0 #33
34.0 #207	Free throw rate	34.9 #184
Possessions
19.0 #320	Turnover rate	18.1 #276
33.9 #70	Offensive rebound rate	35.8 #26
13.7 #170	Assists per game	15.4 #69
Defense
71.7 #99	Points allowed	75.2 #195
1.04 #80	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #149
50.0 #102	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #234
32.2 #72	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #175
18.7 #61	Turnovers forced	17.8 #110
67.0 #299	Defensive rebound rate	71.3 #91
7.8 #56	Steals per game	7.2 #103
5.4 #9	Blocks per game	3.5 #142

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Island

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona58–92
Wvs Mercyhurst79–70
Wvs Wagner64–56
Wvs Chicago St79–75
Wvs FDU74–60

A week or more of rest.

G Washington

18-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico61–86
W@ Utah Valley79–78
Lvs Saint Louis81–88
Wvs Fordham66–62
L@ Loyola Chicago62–68

A week or more of rest.

Long Island University Sharks at George Washington Revolutionaries

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Long Island

G Washington

G Washington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Long Island

G Washington