Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at Pepperdine Waves: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETFirestone Fieldhouse · at Pepperdine

#266FGCUFGCU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: FGCU and Pepperdine
FGCU	This season	PEPP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PEPP 80–71 · win probability PEPP 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FGCU has more of the edges

FGCU 4, PEPP 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PEPPBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: FGCU 29.1, PEPP 33.9. Allowed: FGCU 38.3, PEPP 28.5

FGCUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FGCU 31.1%, PEPP 29.1%. Defensive: FGCU 71.8%, PEPP 66.0%

PEPPBig

PEPP offense vs FGCU defense

Offense 139th of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

FGCU has played the 231st-hardest schedule, PEPP the 128th. A record against a soft schedule means less

FGCUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4; PEPP 47.6 and allows 54.2

FGCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FGCU 16.0%, PEPP 18.3%. Forced: FGCU 16.4%, PEPP 16.5%

PEPPSmall

Home court

PEPP at home. This season: PEPP 0-0 at home, FGCU 0-0 away

FGCUSmall

Three-pointers

FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; PEPP hits 31.4% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 38.4% and 39.2% of their shots

Even

FGCU offense vs PEPP defense

Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 216th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FGCU 25%, PEPP 5%. Transfers in: FGCU 3, PEPP 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: FGCU plays 69.9 a game (122nd fastest), PEPP 70.0 (117th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PEPP -8.9	—
Total	—	151.6	—
Projected score	—	FGCU 71.3 · PEPP 80.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PEPP -5.2	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	FGCU 32.9 · PEPP 38	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FGCU LLWWL	9-23	28%	3-11	—
PEPP WLWWL	14-16	47%	6-9	—

Venue/role: FGCU away; PEPP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FGCU UUUUU	15-17	47%	14-18
PEPP OOOOU	15-15	50%	7-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FGCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
PEPP	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

FGCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	@ LMU	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs ALCN	No recent meeting

Pepperdine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs PV	No recent meeting
Dec 13	@ SAC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FGCU

32 games played

Straight up

14-18

44% wins

Against the spread

9-23

28% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1844%

L L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L W L L W W L L W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-2328%

L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O O U O U O O O U O O U U O U O U O U U U U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@ILL	L 70-113	+29.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsGASO	L 94-95	-3.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 15	vsUTC	W 91-73	+1.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SAM	W 77-62	+5.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 24	vsORU	W 93-88	-11.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 181
Nov 25	vsRICE	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsKENN	L 100-102	-1.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 3	@FIU	L 83-89	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 172
Dec 7	vsFAU	L 76-81	+2.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 157
Dec 14	@UNM	L 59-75	+15.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	@UCF	L 80-102	+17.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 182
Jan 1	@CARK	L 83-85	-2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 168
Jan 3	@UNA	W 72-55	-2.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsAPSU	L 71-82	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	U 153
Jan 10	vsLIP	L 77-84	-2.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 161
Jan 15	vsQUC	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	vsWGA	W 90-72	-9.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 22	@APSU	L 62-83	+6.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 23	@LIP	L 71-86	+5.5	L −9.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 29	vsUNA	W 72-64	-9.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 31	@JAX	W 68-49	+1.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 117
Feb 5	@EKU	L 74-76	+1.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 7	@BELL	L 65-81	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	vsUNF	W 90-81	-13.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 171
Feb 14	vsSTET	W 78-76	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 18	vsJAX	W 86-84	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 170
Feb 21	vsCARK	W 75-71	+1.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 146
Feb 26	@UNF	L 70-76	-6.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 146
Feb 28	@STET	L 63-78	-5.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsUNA	W 69-58	-8.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsLIP	W 77-53	+3.5	W +27.5	150.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsCARK	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

−13.5

GASO

L 94-95

−4.5

UTC

W 91-73

+19.5

SAM

W 77-62

+20.5

ORU

W 93-88

−6.5

RICE

W 78-63

+9.5

KENN

L 100-102

−3.5

FIU

L 83-89

−7.5

FAU

L 76-81

−2.5

UNM

L 59-75

−0.5

UCF

L 80-102

−4.5

CARK

L 83-85

−4.5

UNA

W 72-55

+14.5

APSU

L 71-82

−14.5

LIP

L 77-84

−9.5

QUC

L 74-85

−12.5

WGA

W 90-72

+8.5

APSU

L 62-83

−14.5

LIP

L 71-86

−9.5

UNA

W 72-64

−1.5

JAX

W 68-49

+20.5

EKU

L 74-76

−0.5

BELL

L 65-81

−18.5

UNF

W 90-81

−4.5

STET

W 78-76

−9.5

JAX

W 86-84

−4.5

CARK

W 75-71

+5.5

UNF

L 70-76

−12.5

STET

L 63-78

−20.5

UNA

W 69-58

+2.5

LIP

W 77-53

+27.5

CARK

L 63-73

−5.5

covered 9didn’t cover 23avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

+22.5

GASO

L 94-95

+25.5

UTC

W 91-73

+11.5

SAM

W 77-62

−15.5

ORU

W 93-88

+27.5

RICE

W 78-63

−8.5

KENN

L 100-102

+41.5

FIU

L 83-89

+17.5

FAU

L 76-81

+6.5

UNM

L 59-75

−25.5

UCF

L 80-102

+20.5

CARK

L 83-85

+11.5

UNA

W 72-55

−20.5

APSU

L 71-82

−0.5

LIP

L 77-84

+3.5

QUC

L 74-85

−7.5

WGA

W 90-72

+9.5

APSU

L 62-83

−10.5

LIP

L 71-86

+3.5

UNA

W 72-64

−11.5

JAX

W 68-49

−19.5

EKU

L 74-76

−4.5

BELL

L 65-81

−5.5

UNF

W 90-81

+7.5

STET

W 78-76

+5.5

JAX

W 86-84

+33.5

CARK

W 75-71

−6.5

UNF

L 70-76

−14.5

STET

L 63-78

−9.5

UNA

W 69-58

−12.5

LIP

W 77-53

−20.5

CARK

L 63-73

−8.5

over 15under 17avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pepperdine

30 games played

Straight up

7-23

23% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2323%

L L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L L W W L L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U U U U U O O U U U O U U U U O O O O O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 29	@CSUF	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 2	vsACU	L 63-71	+1.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsUVM	L 56-65	+1.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 13	@CSUB	W 70-62	+1.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 18	@LBSU	L 78-81	+4.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsRICE	W 84-62	+1.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 146
Dec 28	vsGONZ	L 56-96	+29.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 152
Dec 30	vsSMC	L 45-72	+19.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	@SCU	L 63-82	+20.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	@PAC	L 69-74	+11.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 8	@USD	L 63-83	+4.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsSF	L 60-80	+7.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 14	vsPORT	W 67-63	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 130
Jan 21	@GONZ	L 60-84	+28.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 144
Jan 24	@WSU	L 79-95	+11.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 174
Jan 28	vsUSD	L 88-92	+2.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 180
Feb 4	@SEA	L 81-83	+12.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsPAC	L 59-92	+7.5	L −25.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 11	@SMC	L 60-88	+24.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	vsLMU	W 90-89	+5.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 18	@PORT	W 95-87	+7.5	W +15.5	150.5	O 182
Feb 21	@ORST	L 73-83	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsSEA	L 80-87	+7.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsWSU	W 88-79	+7.5	W +16.5	158.5	O 167
Mar 5	vsPORT	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	154.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−12.5

ACU

L 63-71

−6.5

UVM

L 56-65

−7.5

CSUB

W 70-62

+9.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+1.5

RICE

W 84-62

+23.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−10.5

SMC

L 45-72

−7.5

SCU

L 63-82

+1.5

PAC

L 69-74

+6.5

USD

L 63-83

−15.5

L 60-80

−12.5

PORT

W 67-63

+5.5

GONZ

L 60-84

+4.5

WSU

L 79-95

−4.5

USD

L 88-92

−1.5

SEA

L 81-83

+10.5

PAC

L 59-92

−25.5

SMC

L 60-88

−3.5

LMU

W 90-89

+6.5

PORT

W 95-87

+15.5

ORST

L 73-83

−0.5

SEA

L 80-87

+0.5

WSU

W 88-79

+16.5

PORT

L 68-77

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−9.5

ACU

L 63-71

−3.5

UVM

L 56-65

−21.5

CSUB

W 70-62

−15.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+17.5

RICE

W 84-62

+5.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−0.5

SMC

L 45-72

−24.5

SCU

L 63-82

−5.5

PAC

L 69-74

+4.5

USD

L 63-83

−3.5

L 60-80

−0.5

PORT

W 67-63

−17.5

GONZ

L 60-84

−6.5

WSU

L 79-95

+27.5

USD

L 88-92

+28.5

SEA

L 81-83

+24.5

PAC

L 59-92

+8.5

SMC

L 60-88

+3.5

LMU

W 90-89

+31.5

PORT

W 95-87

+31.5

ORST

L 73-83

+7.5

SEA

L 80-87

+21.5

WSU

W 88-79

+8.5

PORT

L 68-77

−9.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: FGCU 0, Pepperdine 0, even 5

FGCUBetterPepperdine

G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47

Even

G J. Williamson TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 58

G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21

No call

G W. McClendon TR13.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F P. Majstorovic TR14.4 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 78

F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

F Y. Fritz TR9.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 58

C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26

Even

F E. Meuser TR6.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 39

FGCUBetterPepperdine

FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0

Even

PEPP defense216th of 366 · -5.6

FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9

PEPPBig

PEPP offense139th of 366 · -4.2

Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players

PEPPBig

Backcourt+1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

PEPPSmall

Frontcourt+1.2 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.6 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestFGCU betterPEPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

FGCU

Guards

E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew

Forwards

G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew

Centers

T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR

Pepperdine

Guards

J. Williamson26 min · TRW. McClendon25 min · TRE. Haywood19 min · TRD. Mager10 minA. BalianNewC. ChouNew

Forwards

P. Majstorovic32 min · TRY. Fritz26 min · TRE. Meuser21 min · TRA. Robinson10 min · TRA. ConstanzaNewF. BiberovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FGCU76.6 #130

PEPP70.4 #277

Points per possession

FGCU1.10 #138

PEPP1.00 #320

Pace (possessions)

FGCU69.9 #122

PEPP70.0 #117

Shooting

Effective FG%

FGCU52.0 #147

PEPP47.6 #323

3-point %

FGCU33.2 #219

PEPP31.4 #310

3-point attempt rate

FGCU38.4 #202

PEPP39.2 #187

Free throw rate

FGCU29.1 #331

PEPP33.9 #216

Possessions

Turnover rate

FGCU16.0 #135

PEPP18.3 #288

Offensive rebound rate

FGCU31.1 #161

PEPP29.1 #234

Assists per game

FGCU14.5 #115

PEPP13.6 #176

Defense

Points allowed

FGCU78.0 #266

PEPP79.7 #311

Points allowed per possession

FGCU1.11 #254

PEPP1.14 #303

Opponent effective FG%

FGCU53.4 #280

PEPP54.2 #306

Opponent 3-point %

FGCU35.5 #275

PEPP35.5 #276

Turnovers forced

FGCU16.4 #191

PEPP16.5 #184

Defensive rebound rate

FGCU71.8 #73

PEPP66.0 #318

Steals per game

FGCU7.7 #66

PEPP5.9 #246

Blocks per game

FGCU3.4 #153

PEPP2.8 #269

FGCU		PEPP
Scoring
76.6 #130	Points per game	70.4 #277
1.10 #138	Points per possession	1.00 #320
69.9 #122	Pace (possessions)	70.0 #117
Shooting
52.0 #147	Effective FG%	47.6 #323
33.2 #219	3-point %	31.4 #310
38.4 #202	3-point attempt rate	39.2 #187
29.1 #331	Free throw rate	33.9 #216
Possessions
16.0 #135	Turnover rate	18.3 #288
31.1 #161	Offensive rebound rate	29.1 #234
14.5 #115	Assists per game	13.6 #176
Defense
78.0 #266	Points allowed	79.7 #311
1.11 #254	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #303
53.4 #280	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #306
35.5 #275	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #276
16.4 #191	Turnovers forced	16.5 #184
71.8 #73	Defensive rebound rate	66.0 #318
7.7 #66	Steals per game	5.9 #246
3.4 #153	Blocks per game	2.8 #269

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs C Arkansas63–73
Wvs Lipscomb77–53
Wvs North Alabama69–58
L@ Stetson63–78
L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.

Pepperdine

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Portland68–77
Wvs Washington St88–79
Lvs Seattle U80–87
L@ Oregon St73–83
W@ Portland95–87

A week or more of rest.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at Pepperdine Waves

What could decide it: FGCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

FGCU

Pepperdine

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

FGCU

Pepperdine