California Baptist Lancers at UC Riverside Highlanders: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETSRC Arena · at UC Riverside · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CA Baptist and UC Riverside
CBU	This season	UCR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CBU 74–72 · win probability CBU 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CBU has more of the edges

CBU 7, UCR 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CBUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CBU 37.5%, UCR 27.8%. Defensive: CBU 72.8%, UCR 70.0%

CBUBig

Three-pointers

CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%; UCR hits 31.6% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 32.0% and 38.3% of their shots

CBUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3; UCR 48.9 and allows 52.7

CBUSmall

UCR offense vs CBU defense

Offense 265th of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: CBU plays 68.3 a game (217th fastest), UCR 71.0 (74th). Faster games mean more points

CBUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CBU 18.0%, UCR 19.0%. Forced: CBU 16.9%, UCR 15.5%

CBUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CBU 35.9, UCR 35.0. Allowed: CBU 36.6, UCR 40.9

UCRSmall

Home court

UCR at home. This season: UCR 0-0 at home, CBU 0-0 away

CBUSmall

CBU offense vs UCR defense

Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 296th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CBU has played the 202nd-hardest schedule, UCR the 182nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CBU 18%, UCR 21%. Transfers in: CBU 2, UCR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CBU -1.8	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	CBU 73.7 · UCR 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CBU -1.2	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	CBU 34.6 · UCR 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CBU WWWWW	20-14	59%	9-6	—
UCR WLLWL	15-15	50%	6-6	—

Venue/role: CBU away; UCR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CBU UOOUU	12-22	35%	25-9
UCR OOUOO	16-14	53%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CBU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
UCR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CA Baptist

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ UTAH	L85–91LO
Dec 14	@ UCD	No recent meeting

UC Riverside

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ CAL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CBU 3–2 UCRCBU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · CBU 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2025-26	UCR 57 @ CBU 80	CBU -12.5	CBU W
Nov 12, 2024-25	UCR 70 @ CBU 69	CBU -3.5	UCR W
Dec 16, 2023-24	CBU 70 @ UCR 69	UCR +2.5	UCR W
Nov 30, 2022-23	UCR 60 @ CBU 65	CBU -4.5	CBU W
Dec 12, 2021-22	CBU 54 @ UCR 70	UCR -4.5	UCR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CA Baptist

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W W W L L W L L W W W W W W W

7 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

O U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U U O O U U O U U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsUSD	W 76-61	-7.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 29	@ORST	W 75-69	+1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 1	@COLO	L 70-78	+13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 3	@BYU	L 60-91	+18.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 6	@UTAH	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 12	@EWU	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 171
Dec 16	vsSOU	W 75-67	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 20	vsSAC	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 141
Dec 29	@UVU	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@UTA	L 51-63	-2.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 114
Jan 3	@TAR	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 157
Jan 8	vsUTU	W 84-72	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsSUU	W 58-55	-14.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 113
Jan 15	@ACU	W 74-58	+1.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 21	vsUTU	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsUVU	W 78-71	-1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@UTA	W 87-77	-1.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 164
Feb 5	vsTAR	W 56-55	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 111
Feb 7	vsACU	W 65-63	-8.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 128
Feb 12	@SUU	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 14	@UTU	L 65-70	-2.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 19	@UVU	L 46-65	+8.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 26	vsUTA	W 68-56	-6.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 28	vsTAR	W 82-67	-8.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 5	vsACU	W 87-48	-9.5	W +29.5	136.5	U 135
Mar 7	@SUU	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 157
Mar 13	vsUTU	W 86-72	-8.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsUVU	W 63-61	+2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsKU	L 60-68	+14.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

USD

W 76-61

+7.5

ORST

W 75-69

+7.5

COLO

L 70-78

+5.5

BYU

L 60-91

−12.5

UTAH

L 85-91

−0.5

EWU

W 88-83

+1.5

SOU

W 75-67

−4.5

SAC

W 74-67

−7.5

UVU

L 66-73

+0.5

UTA

L 51-63

−14.5

TAR

L 76-81

−3.5

UTU

W 84-72

+4.5

SUU

W 58-55

−11.5

ACU

W 74-58

+17.5

UTU

W 73-64

+0.5

UVU

W 78-71

+5.5

UTA

W 87-77

+8.5

TAR

W 56-55

−9.5

ACU

W 65-63

−6.5

SUU

W 83-66

+11.5

UTU

L 65-70

−7.5

UVU

L 46-65

−10.5

UTA

W 68-56

+5.5

TAR

W 82-67

+6.5

ACU

W 87-48

+29.5

SUU

W 82-75

+0.5

UTU

W 86-72

+5.5

UVU

W 63-61

+4.5

L 60-68

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

USD

W 76-61

−9.5

ORST

W 75-69

+6.5

COLO

L 70-78

−2.5

BYU

L 60-91

−2.5

UTAH

L 85-91

+30.5

EWU

W 88-83

+17.5

SOU

W 75-67

−13.5

SAC

W 74-67

−17.5

UVU

L 66-73

−9.5

UTA

L 51-63

−20.5

TAR

L 76-81

+9.5

UTU

W 84-72

+11.5

SUU

W 58-55

−37.5

ACU

W 74-58

−8.5

UTU

W 73-64

−6.5

UVU

W 78-71

+1.5

UTA

W 87-77

+29.5

TAR

W 56-55

−27.5

ACU

W 65-63

−7.5

SUU

W 83-66

+1.5

UTU

L 65-70

−8.5

UVU

L 46-65

−31.5

UTA

W 68-56

−10.5

TAR

W 82-67

+9.5

ACU

W 87-48

−1.5

SUU

W 82-75

+8.5

UTU

W 86-72

+13.5

UVU

W 63-61

−15.5

L 60-68

−14.5

over 12under 22avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Riverside

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

W L L L W W L L W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

W W L L W W L W W L W L L W W L W L W W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O U O O O U O U O O U U U O U O U U O U O U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	vsUND	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 18	@CBU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	@USD	W 85-71	+7.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsGRAM	W 83-74	-3.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 157
Nov 29	@UTU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 4	@UCI	L 60-73	+13.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 6	@CP	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@BYU	L 53-100	+33.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 20	@STMN	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 23	@UCLA	L 65-97	+24.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 1	vsHAW	L 45-88	+8.5	L −34.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 8	@CSUB	L 66-67	+3.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsUCSD	L 66-69	+10.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	@LBSU	L 73-88	+5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsCSUF	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 22	vsUCI	L 66-80	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 146
Jan 24	@UCD	L 66-74	+9.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Jan 29	vsLBSU	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsCP	L 87-94	-1.5	L −8.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 5	@CSUF	L 72-78	+5.5	L −0.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 7	@CSUN	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 12	vsUCSB	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 14	@UCSD	L 66-72	+11.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 19	vsCSUB	W 93-65	-6.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUCD	L 73-78	+2.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 26	@UCSB	L 59-70	+10.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsCSUN	W 95-84	+4.5	W +15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@HAW	L 74-93	+12.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

UND

L 74-76

−5.5

CBU

L 57-80

−10.5

USD

W 85-71

+21.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+5.5

UTU

L 69-77

−2.5

UCI

L 60-73

+0.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−13.5

STMN

L 78-92

+0.5

UCLA

L 65-97

−7.5

HAW

L 45-88

−34.5

CSUB

L 66-67

+2.5

UCSD

L 66-69

+7.5

LBSU

L 73-88

−9.5

CSUF

W 81-72

+12.5

UCI

L 66-80

−5.5

UCD

L 66-74

+1.5

LBSU

W 71-61

+11.5

L 87-94

−8.5

CSUF

L 72-78

−0.5

CSUN

L 74-88

−3.5

UCSB

L 68-76

−1.5

UCSD

L 66-72

+5.5

CSUB

W 93-65

+21.5

UCD

L 73-78

−2.5

UCSB

L 59-70

−0.5

CSUN

W 95-84

+15.5

HAW

L 74-93

−6.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

UND

L 74-76

+1.5

CBU

L 57-80

−5.5

USD

W 85-71

+3.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+12.5

UTU

L 69-77

+0.5

UCI

L 60-73

−9.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−2.5

STMN

L 78-92

+17.5

UCLA

L 65-97

+13.5

HAW

L 45-88

−16.5

CSUB

L 66-67

−14.5

UCSD

L 66-69

−14.5

LBSU

L 73-88

+19.5

CSUF

W 81-72

−4.5

UCI

L 66-80

+3.5

UCD

L 66-74

−9.5

LBSU

W 71-61

−12.5

L 87-94

+18.5

CSUF

L 72-78

−6.5

CSUN

L 74-88

+1.5

UCSB

L 68-76

−1.5

UCSD

L 66-72

−9.5

CSUB

W 93-65

+7.5

UCD

L 73-78

+1.5

UCSB

L 59-70

−16.5

CSUN

W 95-84

+20.5

HAW

L 74-93

+16.5

over 16under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: CA Baptist 1, UC Riverside 1, even 3

CA BaptistBetterUC Riverside

G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

CBUBig

G D. Perteete6.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7

UCRSmall

G J. Evans TR5.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25

G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Waller4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Malcolm TR5.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 87

F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Washington TR2.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0

CA BaptistBetterUC Riverside

CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5

Even

UCR defense296th of 366 · -7.4

CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0

CBUSmall

UCR offense265th of 366 · -8.1

Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

CBUSmall

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.3 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestCBU betterUCR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CA Baptist

Guards

E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew

Forwards

R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew

Centers

M. KovacNew

UC Riverside

Guards

D. Perteete28 minJ. Evans15 min · TRB. Waller14 minD. Malcolm14 min · TRT. Duckett7 min · TRE. ReaganNew

Forwards

D. Washington11 min · TRT. Parrish-TillmanNewA. McKinneyNewJ. MajokNew

Centers

A. Oyeadier2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CBU72.7 #230

UCR71.6 #258

Points per possession

CBU1.07 #209

UCR1.01 #317

Pace (possessions)

CBU68.3 #217

UCR71.0 #74

Shooting

Effective FG%

CBU48.3 #308

UCR48.9 #291

3-point %

CBU33.4 #200

UCR31.6 #301

3-point attempt rate

CBU32.0 #330

UCR38.3 #203

Free throw rate

CBU35.9 #154

UCR35.0 #177

Possessions

Turnover rate

CBU18.0 #270

UCR19.0 #321

Offensive rebound rate

CBU37.5 #13

UCR27.8 #275

Assists per game

CBU10.2 #355

UCR12.3 #262

Defense

Points allowed

CBU67.6 #28

UCR79.1 #303

Points allowed per possession

CBU0.99 #18

UCR1.11 #256

Opponent effective FG%

CBU46.3 #16

UCR52.7 #252

Opponent 3-point %

CBU29.5 #5

UCR33.5 #159

Turnovers forced

CBU16.9 #159

UCR15.5 #250

Defensive rebound rate

CBU72.8 #41

UCR70.0 #159

Steals per game

CBU5.5 #296

UCR5.1 #325

Blocks per game

CBU2.9 #253

UCR4.1 #67

CBU		UCR
Scoring
72.7 #230	Points per game	71.6 #258
1.07 #209	Points per possession	1.01 #317
68.3 #217	Pace (possessions)	71.0 #74
Shooting
48.3 #308	Effective FG%	48.9 #291
33.4 #200	3-point %	31.6 #301
32.0 #330	3-point attempt rate	38.3 #203
35.9 #154	Free throw rate	35.0 #177
Possessions
18.0 #270	Turnover rate	19.0 #321
37.5 #13	Offensive rebound rate	27.8 #275
10.2 #355	Assists per game	12.3 #262
Defense
67.6 #28	Points allowed	79.1 #303
0.99 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #256
46.3 #16	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #252
29.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #159
16.9 #159	Turnovers forced	15.5 #250
72.8 #41	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #159
5.5 #296	Steals per game	5.1 #325
2.9 #253	Blocks per game	4.1 #67

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kansas60–68
Wvs Utah Valley63–61
Wvs Utah Tech86–72
W@ Southern Utah82–75
Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.

UC Riverside

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Hawai'i74–93
Wvs CSU Northridge95–84
L@ Santa Barbara59–70
Lvs UC Davis73–78
Wvs Bakersfield93–65

A week or more of rest.

California Baptist Lancers at UC Riverside Highlanders

What could decide it: CBU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

CA Baptist

UC Riverside

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CA Baptist

UC Riverside