1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. MTST @ NAU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Montana State Bobcats at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · at N Arizona · Conference game
#162MTSTMontana St
@
#321NAUN Arizona
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSTThis seasonNAU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTST 75–67 · win probability MTST 75%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTST has more of the edges

MTST 6, NAU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MTSTBig
NAU offense vs MTST defense
Offense 329th of 366 against a defense 155th, on the model’s ratings
MTSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTST 27.0%, NAU 23.3%. Defensive: MTST 71.8%, NAU 66.6%
MTSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTST 53.6 and allows 51.6; NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9
MTSTSmall
MTST offense vs NAU defense
Offense 190th of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings
MTSTSmall
Three-pointers
MTST hits 36.1% and allows 34.3%; NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%. Threes are 44.6% and 36.6% of their shots
MTSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTST 89%, NAU 40%. Transfers in: MTST 2, NAU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NAUSmall
Home court
NAU at home. This season: NAU 0-0 at home, MTST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MTST plays 67.9 a game (233rd fastest), NAU 65.5 (330th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTST 30.2, NAU 31.8. Allowed: MTST 29.6, NAU 32.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTST 14.8%, NAU 16.0%. Forced: MTST 15.6%, NAU 16.6%
Context
Schedule so far
MTST has played the 278th-hardest schedule, NAU the 275th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MTST -7.6—
Total—142.5—
Projected score—MTST 75.1 · NAU 67.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMTST -4.7—
1H total66.7—
1H projected scoreMTST 35.7 · NAU 31—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Montana St has the better starters

Position by position: Montana St 3, N Arizona 0, even 2
Montana StBetterN Arizona
G J. Miller15.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
MTSTBig
G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42
G C. Holden8.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50
G J. Davis9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
MTSTBig
G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7
G S. Amunrud7.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
No call
G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
F C. King12.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
MTSTBig
F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
Montana StBetterN Arizona
MTST offense190th of 366 · -5.8
MTSTSmall
NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4
MTST defense155th of 366 · -3.4
MTSTBig
NAU offense329th of 366 · -10.7
Backcourt-0.8 · 4 players
MTSTBig
Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
NAUBig
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMTST betterNAU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana St
Guards
J. Miller36 minC. Holden28 minJ. Davis25 minS. Amunrud21 minH. Keene11 minD. Slater7 min · TR
Forwards
C. King29 minJ. Steppe15 minW. Mbatch11 minL. Praytor4 min · TRC. Rutherfurd1 minJ. StewardNew
N Arizona
Guards
R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min
Forwards
D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew
Centers
N. KeutchaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSTNAU
Scoring
75.7 #151Points per game68.1 #311
1.12 #107Points per possession1.04 #271
67.9 #233Pace (possessions)65.5 #330
Shooting
53.6 #80Effective FG%51.7 #161
36.1 #523-point %35.6 #79
44.6 #763-point attempt rate36.6 #236
30.2 #303Free throw rate31.8 #260
Possessions
14.8 #53Turnover rate16.0 #140
27.0 #292Offensive rebound rate23.3 #348
10.6 #347Assists per game12.5 #251
Defense
73.5 #144Points allowed77.6 #257
1.08 #158Points allowed per possession1.18 #351
51.6 #193Opponent effective FG%56.9 #355
34.3 #198Opponent 3-point %38.7 #362
15.6 #242Turnovers forced16.6 #181
71.8 #75Defensive rebound rate66.6 #305
6.5 #171Steals per game6.3 #194
2.8 #263Blocks per game2.7 #287
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana St

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho74–78
  • W@ N Arizona76–65
  • Wvs Sacramento St82–61
  • Wvs Portland St84–69
  • L@ Idaho St76–91

A week or more of rest.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho St65–73
  • Lvs Montana St65–76
  • L@ E Washington57–88
  • L@ Idaho58–78
  • L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.