California Baptist Lancers at Utah Utes: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 12:00 AM ETJon M. Huntsman Center · at Utah

#73UTAHUtah

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CA Baptist and Utah
CBU	This season	UTAH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 80–66 · win probability UTAH 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CBU has more of the edges

CBU 4, UTAH 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CBUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CBU 37.5%, UTAH 29.3%. Defensive: CBU 72.8%, UTAH 68.4%

UTAHBig

CBU offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 68th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CBU has played the 202nd-hardest schedule, UTAH the 53rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense vs CBU defense

Offense 79th of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings

CBUSmall

Three-pointers

CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%; UTAH hits 35.3% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 32.0% and 37.5% of their shots

CBUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3; UTAH 52.0 and allows 53.9

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 0-0 at home, CBU 0-0 away

CBUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CBU 18.0%, UTAH 16.7%. Forced: CBU 16.9%, UTAH 13.3%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CBU 35.9, UTAH 31.7. Allowed: CBU 36.6, UTAH 29.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CBU 18%, UTAH 14%. Transfers in: CBU 2, UTAH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: CBU plays 68.3 a game (217th fastest), UTAH 68.3 (211th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UTAH -14.5	—
Total	—	145.6	—
Projected score	—	CBU 65.6 · UTAH 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTAH -8.5	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	CBU 29.8 · UTAH 38.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CBU WWWWW	20-14	59%	9-6	—
UTAH LLLLW	15-17	47%	5-12	—

Venue/role: CBU away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CBU UOOUU	12-22	35%	25-9
UTAH UUOOO	18-14	56%	10-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CBU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
UTAH	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CA Baptist

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ UCD	No recent meeting

Utah

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs ACU	W70–56WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CBU 0–1 UTAHUTAH leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CBU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	CBU 85 @ UTAH 91	UTAH -5.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CA Baptist

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W W W L L W L L W W W W W W W

7 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

O U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U U O O U U O U U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsUSD	W 76-61	-7.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 29	@ORST	W 75-69	+1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 1	@COLO	L 70-78	+13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 3	@BYU	L 60-91	+18.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 6	@UTAH	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 12	@EWU	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 171
Dec 16	vsSOU	W 75-67	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 20	vsSAC	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 141
Dec 29	@UVU	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@UTA	L 51-63	-2.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 114
Jan 3	@TAR	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 157
Jan 8	vsUTU	W 84-72	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsSUU	W 58-55	-14.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 113
Jan 15	@ACU	W 74-58	+1.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 21	vsUTU	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsUVU	W 78-71	-1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@UTA	W 87-77	-1.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 164
Feb 5	vsTAR	W 56-55	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 111
Feb 7	vsACU	W 65-63	-8.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 128
Feb 12	@SUU	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 14	@UTU	L 65-70	-2.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 19	@UVU	L 46-65	+8.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 26	vsUTA	W 68-56	-6.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 28	vsTAR	W 82-67	-8.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 5	vsACU	W 87-48	-9.5	W +29.5	136.5	U 135
Mar 7	@SUU	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 157
Mar 13	vsUTU	W 86-72	-8.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsUVU	W 63-61	+2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsKU	L 60-68	+14.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

USD

W 76-61

+7.5

ORST

W 75-69

+7.5

COLO

L 70-78

+5.5

BYU

L 60-91

−12.5

UTAH

L 85-91

−0.5

EWU

W 88-83

+1.5

SOU

W 75-67

−4.5

SAC

W 74-67

−7.5

UVU

L 66-73

+0.5

UTA

L 51-63

−14.5

TAR

L 76-81

−3.5

UTU

W 84-72

+4.5

SUU

W 58-55

−11.5

ACU

W 74-58

+17.5

UTU

W 73-64

+0.5

UVU

W 78-71

+5.5

UTA

W 87-77

+8.5

TAR

W 56-55

−9.5

ACU

W 65-63

−6.5

SUU

W 83-66

+11.5

UTU

L 65-70

−7.5

UVU

L 46-65

−10.5

UTA

W 68-56

+5.5

TAR

W 82-67

+6.5

ACU

W 87-48

+29.5

SUU

W 82-75

+0.5

UTU

W 86-72

+5.5

UVU

W 63-61

+4.5

L 60-68

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

USD

W 76-61

−9.5

ORST

W 75-69

+6.5

COLO

L 70-78

−2.5

BYU

L 60-91

−2.5

UTAH

L 85-91

+30.5

EWU

W 88-83

+17.5

SOU

W 75-67

−13.5

SAC

W 74-67

−17.5

UVU

L 66-73

−9.5

UTA

L 51-63

−20.5

TAR

L 76-81

+9.5

UTU

W 84-72

+11.5

SUU

W 58-55

−37.5

ACU

W 74-58

−8.5

UTU

W 73-64

−6.5

UVU

W 78-71

+1.5

UTA

W 87-77

+29.5

TAR

W 56-55

−27.5

ACU

W 65-63

−7.5

SUU

W 83-66

+1.5

UTU

L 65-70

−8.5

UVU

L 46-65

−31.5

UTA

W 68-56

−10.5

TAR

W 82-67

+9.5

ACU

W 87-48

−1.5

SUU

W 82-75

+8.5

UTU

W 86-72

+13.5

UVU

W 63-61

−15.5

L 60-68

−14.5

over 12under 22avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Utah

32 games played

Straight up

10-22

31% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2231%

W W W W W L L W L W L W L L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1747%

L L L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L L W W W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O O O O O U O U O O O U O U O O O U O U U U U U U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 18	vsPFW	W 85-77	-13.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 20	vsCP	L 85-92	-14.5	L −21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsGCU	L 58-68	+5.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 126
Nov 26	vsMISS	W 75-74	+10.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	@CAL	L 72-79	+7.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCBU	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 13	vsMSST	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsEWU	W 101-77	-10.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 178
Dec 29	@WASH	L 65-74	+12.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 3	vsARIZ	L 78-97	+17.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 175
Jan 7	@COLO	L 73-85	+9.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 10	vsBYU	L 84-89	+14.5	W +9.5	168.5	O 173
Jan 14	@TTU	L 74-88	+17.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsTCU	W 82-79	+4.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 20	@KSU	L 78-81	+10.5	W +7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	@BYU	L 78-91	+19.5	W +6.5	168.5	O 169
Jan 31	vsOKST	L 69-81	+1.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 150
Feb 4	vsASU	L 63-71	-1.5	L −9.5	161.5	U 134
Feb 7	@KU	L 59-71	+18.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 130
Feb 10	vsHOU	L 52-66	+16.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 15	@CIN	L 65-69	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 18	@WVU	W 61-56	+10.5	W +15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	vsUCF	L 71-73	+1.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Feb 24	vsISU	L 59-75	+14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 28	@ASU	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 133
Mar 3	vsCOLO	L 78-92	+1.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 170
Mar 7	@BAY	L 75-101	+13.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 176
Mar 10	vsCIN	L 66-73	+12.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

PFW

W 85-77

−5.5

L 85-92

−21.5

GCU

L 58-68

−4.5

MISS

W 75-74

+11.5

CAL

L 72-79

+0.5

CBU

W 91-85

+0.5

MSST

L 74-82

−6.5

EWU

W 101-77

+13.5

WASH

L 65-74

+3.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

−1.5

COLO

L 73-85

−2.5

BYU

L 84-89

+9.5

TTU

L 74-88

+3.5

TCU

W 82-79

+7.5

KSU

L 78-81

+7.5

BYU

L 78-91

+6.5

OKST

L 69-81

−10.5

ASU

L 63-71

−9.5

L 59-71

+6.5

HOU

L 52-66

+2.5

CIN

L 65-69

+8.5

WVU

W 61-56

+15.5

UCF

L 71-73

−0.5

ISU

L 59-75

−1.5

ASU

L 60-73

−6.5

COLO

L 78-92

−12.5

BAY

L 75-101

−12.5

CIN

L 66-73

+5.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

PFW

W 85-77

+0.5

L 85-92

+9.5

GCU

L 58-68

−27.5

MISS

W 75-74

+4.5

CAL

L 72-79

−1.5

CBU

W 91-85

+30.5

MSST

L 74-82

+2.5

EWU

W 101-77

+17.5

WASH

L 65-74

−18.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

+12.5

COLO

L 73-85

−4.5

BYU

L 84-89

+4.5

TTU

L 74-88

+2.5

TCU

W 82-79

+6.5

KSU

L 78-81

−9.5

BYU

L 78-91

+0.5

OKST

L 69-81

−16.5

ASU

L 63-71

−27.5

L 59-71

−20.5

HOU

L 52-66

−24.5

CIN

L 65-69

−5.5

WVU

W 61-56

−16.5

UCF

L 71-73

−10.5

ISU

L 59-75

−10.5

ASU

L 60-73

−17.5

COLO

L 78-92

+21.5

BAY

L 75-101

+27.5

CIN

L 66-73

+0.5

over 18under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah has the better starters

Position by position: CA Baptist 0, Utah 2, even 3

CA BaptistBetterUtah

G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

UTAHSmall

G T. Campbell TR13.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.9 ast Score 85

G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7

UTAHBig

G J. Holcombe TR15.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 97

G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Burch TR12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 88

F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G O. Abbey2.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 12

F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

C M. Gomma TR8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

CA BaptistBetterUtah

CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5

UTAHBig

UTAH defense68th of 366 · +0.9

CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense79th of 366 · +0.7

Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players

UTAHBig

Backcourt+6.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestCBU betterUTAH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CA Baptist

Guards

E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew

Forwards

R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew

Centers

M. KovacNew

Utah

Guards

T. Campbell34 min · TRJ. Holcombe31 min · TRT. Burch25 min · TRO. Abbey15 minT. Chatman13 min · TRL. Langarita12 min

Forwards

G. Gaddis1 min · TRB. FayeNewZ. LoubakiNewJ. JohnsonNewA. AnigbataNew

Centers

M. Gomma26 min · TRF. SchottNewL. McCannaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CBU72.7 #230

UTAH74.3 #185

Points per possession

CBU1.07 #209

UTAH1.08 #173

Pace (possessions)

CBU68.3 #217

UTAH68.3 #211

Shooting

Effective FG%

CBU48.3 #308

UTAH52.0 #142

3-point %

CBU33.4 #200

UTAH35.3 #98

3-point attempt rate

CBU32.0 #330

UTAH37.5 #222

Free throw rate

CBU35.9 #154

UTAH31.7 #262

Possessions

Turnover rate

CBU18.0 #270

UTAH16.7 #175

Offensive rebound rate

CBU37.5 #13

UTAH29.3 #224

Assists per game

CBU10.2 #355

UTAH13.7 #169

Defense

Points allowed

CBU67.6 #28

UTAH79.1 #302

Points allowed per possession

CBU0.99 #18

UTAH1.16 #337

Opponent effective FG%

CBU46.3 #16

UTAH53.9 #298

Opponent 3-point %

CBU29.5 #5

UTAH35.1 #254

Turnovers forced

CBU16.9 #159

UTAH13.3 #348

Defensive rebound rate

CBU72.8 #41

UTAH68.4 #233

Steals per game

CBU5.5 #296

UTAH5.3 #315

Blocks per game

CBU2.9 #253

UTAH3.4 #160

CBU		UTAH
Scoring
72.7 #230	Points per game	74.3 #185
1.07 #209	Points per possession	1.08 #173
68.3 #217	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #211
Shooting
48.3 #308	Effective FG%	52.0 #142
33.4 #200	3-point %	35.3 #98
32.0 #330	3-point attempt rate	37.5 #222
35.9 #154	Free throw rate	31.7 #262
Possessions
18.0 #270	Turnover rate	16.7 #175
37.5 #13	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #224
10.2 #355	Assists per game	13.7 #169
Defense
67.6 #28	Points allowed	79.1 #302
0.99 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #337
46.3 #16	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #298
29.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #254
16.9 #159	Turnovers forced	13.3 #348
72.8 #41	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #233
5.5 #296	Steals per game	5.3 #315
2.9 #253	Blocks per game	3.4 #160

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kansas60–68
Wvs Utah Valley63–61
Wvs Utah Tech86–72
W@ Southern Utah82–75
Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.

Utah

10-22 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Cincinnati66–73
L@ Baylor75–101
Lvs Colorado78–92
L@ Arizona St60–73
Lvs Iowa State59–75

A week or more of rest.

California Baptist Lancers at Utah Utes

What could decide it: CBU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

CA Baptist

Utah

Utah has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CA Baptist

Utah