1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. MONT @ USU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Montana Grizzlies at Utah State Aggies

Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · at Utah State
#273MONTMontana
@
#58USUUtah State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONTThis seasonUSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 88–64 · win probability USU 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

MONT 2, USU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, USU 15.1%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, USU 20.2%
USUBig
USU offense vs MONT defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
MONT offense vs USU defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MONTBig
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 41.8% and 40.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points
MONTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, USU 38.8. Allowed: MONT 32.6, USU 39.2
USUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, USU 67.2%
USUSmall
Home court
USU at home. This season: USU 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, USU 26%. Transfers in: MONT 0, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USU -23.9—
Total—151.6—
Projected score—MONT 63.8 · USU 87.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSU -14.1—
1H total70.9—
1H projected scoreMONT 28.4 · USU 42.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Montana 1, Utah State 1, even 3
MontanaBetterUtah State
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
USUBig
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
MONTSmall
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
MontanaBetterUtah State
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
USUBig
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
USUBig
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
USUBig
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
USUBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMONT betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONTUSU
Scoring
75.7 #148Points per game81.3 #43
1.06 #216Points per possession1.19 #24
71.1 #72Pace (possessions)68.5 #207
Shooting
55.8 #23Effective FG%56.3 #18
36.6 #383-point %34.3 #155
41.8 #1383-point attempt rate40.8 #152
36.8 #135Free throw rate38.8 #83
Possessions
19.5 #339Turnover rate15.1 #72
20.7 #363Offensive rebound rate32.7 #97
14.3 #125Assists per game17.1 #21
Defense
77.6 #254Points allowed71.2 #78
1.09 #204Points allowed per possession1.04 #72
50.5 #129Opponent effective FG%49.7 #87
32.3 #74Opponent 3-point %34.5 #222
14.3 #326Turnovers forced20.2 #18
70.4 #143Defensive rebound rate67.2 #290
5.4 #306Steals per game8.5 #17
2.4 #313Blocks per game2.9 #252
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.