1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. NMSU @ UNM
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos

The Pit · at New Mexico
#133NMSUNew Mexico St
@
#82UNMNew Mexico
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NMSUThis seasonUNM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 82–69 · win probability UNM 87%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

NMSU 0, UNM 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNMBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NMSU 15.0%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: NMSU 14.7%, UNM 19.0%
UNMBig
Three-pointers
NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 38.7% and 41.9% of their shots
UNMBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NMSU 34.9, UNM 35.8. Allowed: NMSU 44.2, UNM 33.3
UNMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5
Context
Schedule so far
NMSU has played the 174th-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: NMSU plays 68.1 a game (224th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points
UNMSmall
UNM offense vs NMSU defense
Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings
UNMSmall
Home court
UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, NMSU 0-0 away
UNMSmall
NMSU offense vs UNM defense
Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NMSU 22%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: NMSU 6, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NMSU 32.5%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: NMSU 69.7%, UNM 72.3%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNM -12.7—
Total—151.1—
Projected score—NMSU 69.2 · UNM 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNM -7.4—
1H total70.7—
1H projected scoreNMSU 31.6 · UNM 39—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: New Mexico St 0, New Mexico 3, even 2
New Mexico StBetterNew Mexico
G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 34
UNMBig
G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 68
Even
G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
Even
G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54
F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 40
UNMBig
G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93
F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
UNMSmall
F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
New Mexico StBetterNew Mexico
NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6
Even
UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9
NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3
Even
UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6
Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players
UNMBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
UNMSmall
Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player
Bench-2.2 · 3 players
UNMBig
Bench+0.9 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestNMSU betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
New Mexico St
Guards
J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew
Forwards
M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew
Centers
A. DiongueNew
New Mexico
Guards
J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew
Forwards
T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NMSUUNM
Scoring
73.8 #207Points per game80.8 #52
1.08 #179Points per possession1.14 #70
68.1 #224Pace (possessions)70.7 #87
Shooting
48.5 #302Effective FG%53.5 #82
32.4 #2573-point %35.6 #83
38.7 #1983-point attempt rate41.9 #136
34.9 #186Free throw rate35.8 #160
Possessions
15.0 #66Turnover rate14.9 #59
32.5 #105Offensive rebound rate30.6 #176
12.5 #250Assists per game14.8 #104
Defense
73.8 #150Points allowed71.6 #96
1.08 #179Points allowed per possession1.01 #36
48.7 #52Opponent effective FG%49.5 #84
32.4 #83Opponent 3-point %30.5 #20
14.7 #311Turnovers forced19.0 #50
69.7 #175Defensive rebound rate72.3 #57
5.7 #276Steals per game7.9 #43
3.0 #221Blocks per game2.7 #274
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Mexico St

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Sam Houston61–69
  • Wvs Jax State68–63
  • Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
  • Wvs Jax State77–75
  • L@ MTSU85–86

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa69–74
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
  • Wvs G Washington86–61
  • Wvs Sam Houston107–83
  • Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.