UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at LSU New Orleans Privateers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETLakefront Arena · at LSU N Orleans · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UT Rio Grande and LSU N Orleans
RGV	This season	NOLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NOLA 76–73 · win probability NOLA 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

RGV 3, NOLA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RGVBig

Three-pointers

RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; NOLA hits 31.8% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 43.7% and 33.7% of their shots

NOLABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: RGV 28.9, NOLA 46.4. Allowed: RGV 39.0, NOLA 39.5

RGVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8; NOLA 49.6 and allows 49.0

Context

Schedule so far

RGV has played the 274th-hardest schedule, NOLA the 173rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOLASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RGV 28.2%, NOLA 35.6%. Defensive: RGV 67.9%, NOLA 65.5%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: RGV plays 67.3 a game (268th fastest), NOLA 70.2 (110th). Faster games mean more points

RGVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RGV 18.5%, NOLA 20.4%. Forced: RGV 16.2%, NOLA 14.9%

NOLASmall

Home court

NOLA at home. This season: NOLA 0-0 at home, RGV 0-0 away

Even

NOLA offense vs RGV defense

Offense 230th of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RGV 9%, NOLA 22%. Transfers in: RGV 3, NOLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

RGV offense vs NOLA defense

Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 316th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NOLA -3.1	—
Total	—	149.2	—
Projected score	—	RGV 73.1 · NOLA 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NOLA -1.7	—
1H total	69.8	—
1H projected score	RGV 34 · NOLA 35.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RGV WLWWW	18-13	58%	11-5	—
NOLA WWLWL	19-14	58%	7-4	—

Venue/role: RGV away; NOLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RGV UUUOO	13-18	42%	17-14
NOLA UUOUU	19-14	58%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RGV	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
NOLA	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UT Rio Grande

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ TXST	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ DAY	No recent meeting

LSU N Orleans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs AMCC	L61–74LU
Dec 13	@ GRAM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RGV 3–1 NOLARGV leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · RGV 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	RGV 95 @ NOLA 76	NOLA +1.5	RGV W
Dec 29, 2025-26	NOLA 85 @ RGV 69	RGV -6.5	NOLA W
Mar 1, 2024-25	NOLA 78 @ RGV 88	RGV -10.5	NOLA W
Jan 4, 2024-25	RGV 76 @ NOLA 64	NOLA +7.5	RGV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Rio Grande

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L L L L W L W L L L W L L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W W L L W L W L W L L L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

O O U U U U U U O O U U O O U O U U U O U O O U U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BAY	L 81-96	+24.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 8	@SUU	W 95-72	-1.5	W +21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 11	@BOIS	L 65-85	+16.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 22	@MOST	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	@ILL	L 73-87	+33.5	W +19.5	164.5	U 160
Dec 3	@SFA	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 133
Dec 7	vsAPSU	W 63-50	-2.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 11	vsUTA	L 50-58	-4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 108
Dec 16	@LAM	W 83-72	+3.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 155
Dec 29	vsNOLA	L 69-85	-6.5	L −22.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 31	vsNICH	L 69-71	-3.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsAMCC	L 59-63	-2.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 122
Jan 5	vsUIW	W 80-67	-1.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 147
Jan 10	@ETAM	L 69-77	-3.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 12	@NWST	L 63-64	-2.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	vsMCN	W 79-76	+9.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsSELA	W 68-65	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	@HCU	W 68-51	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 26	@AMCC	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 119
Jan 31	@UIW	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 199
Feb 2	vsHCU	W 74-57	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@NOLA	W 95-76	-1.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 9	@NICH	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 164
Feb 14	vsSFA	L 57-66	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 123
Feb 16	vsLAM	W 70-65	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 21	@SELA	W 96-75	-4.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	@MCN	L 68-75	+11.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	vsETAM	W 63-55	-10.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 118
Mar 2	vsNWST	W 74-62	-9.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 9	vsNICH	W 86-68	-5.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 154
Mar 10	vsMCN	L 80-84	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+9.5

SUU

W 95-72

+21.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−3.5

MOST

L 67-74

−3.5

ILL

L 73-87

+19.5

SFA

L 60-73

−6.5

APSU

W 63-50

+10.5

UTA

L 50-58

−12.5

LAM

W 83-72

+14.5

NOLA

L 69-85

−22.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−6.5

UIW

W 80-67

+11.5

ETAM

L 69-77

−11.5

NWST

L 63-64

−3.5

MCN

W 79-76

+12.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

+14.5

AMCC

W 64-55

+11.5

UIW

W 106-93

+11.5

HCU

W 74-57

+7.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+17.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−7.5

LAM

W 70-65

−1.5

SELA

W 96-75

+16.5

MCN

L 68-75

+4.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−2.5

NWST

W 74-62

+2.5

NICH

W 86-68

+12.5

MCN

L 80-84

+4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+22.5

SUU

W 95-72

+6.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−11.5

MOST

L 67-74

−8.5

ILL

L 73-87

−4.5

SFA

L 60-73

−10.5

APSU

W 63-50

−38.5

UTA

L 50-58

−37.5

LAM

W 83-72

+15.5

NOLA

L 69-85

+1.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−15.5

UIW

W 80-67

+0.5

ETAM

L 69-77

+0.5

NWST

L 63-64

−16.5

MCN

W 79-76

+8.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

−21.5

AMCC

W 64-55

−16.5

UIW

W 106-93

+58.5

HCU

W 74-57

−10.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+19.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−21.5

LAM

W 70-65

−6.5

SELA

W 96-75

+32.5

MCN

L 68-75

−3.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−28.5

NWST

W 74-62

−3.5

NICH

W 86-68

+10.5

MCN

L 80-84

+23.5

over 13under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU N Orleans

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W L W L L L L L L W L W L L W L W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

W L W L L W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U U O O U U O O O O O O U O O O O O U U U O O O U U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TCU	W 78-74	+21.5	W +25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 10	@LSU	L 58-93	+19.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 14	@TULN	W 85-63	+11.5	W +33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 18	@PEPP	L 79-90	+5.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	@FRES	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 24	@MSST	L 78-81	+23.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 26	@TTU	L 50-82	+29.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 132
Dec 3	@MEM	L 70-86	+14.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsHCU	L 76-85	-4.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 161
Dec 8	vsUIW	W 84-83	+1.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 167
Dec 13	@HOU	L 57-99	+32.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 29	@RGV	W 85-69	+6.5	W +22.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 31	@AMCC	L 69-83	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 3	@NWST	L 68-74	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	vsETAM	W 83-73	-6.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsNICH	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 12	@SELA	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsSFA	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 19	vsLAM	W 89-76	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 165
Jan 24	@MCN	L 63-82	+18.5	L −0.5	156.5	U 145
Jan 27	@NICH	W 80-62	+4.5	W +22.5	157.5	U 142
Jan 31	vsNWST	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	153.5	U 139
Feb 2	@ETAM	W 94-85	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsRGV	L 76-95	+1.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 9	vsAMCC	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 14	@HCU	L 60-61	+1.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 121
Feb 16	@UIW	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 142
Feb 21	@LAM	W 77-71	+4.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 23	@SFA	W 77-73	+11.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsMCN	L 63-66	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 129
Mar 2	vsSELA	L 78-82	-6.5	L −10.5	143.5	O 160
Mar 8	vsHCU	W 73-60	-5.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 133
Mar 9	vsAMCC	L 61-74	+2.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+25.5

LSU

L 58-93

−15.5

TULN

W 85-63

+33.5

PEPP

L 79-90

−5.5

FRES

L 76-85

−2.5

MSST

L 78-81

+20.5

TTU

L 50-82

−2.5

MEM

L 70-86

−1.5

HCU

L 76-85

−13.5

UIW

W 84-83

+2.5

HOU

L 57-99

−9.5

RGV

W 85-69

+22.5

AMCC

L 69-83

−9.5

NWST

L 68-74

−7.5

ETAM

W 83-73

+3.5

NICH

L 77-90

−9.5

SELA

W 79-76

+5.5

SFA

L 79-84

+1.5

LAM

W 89-76

+14.5

MCN

L 63-82

−0.5

NICH

W 80-62

+22.5

NWST

W 75-64

+6.5

ETAM

W 94-85

+7.5

RGV

L 76-95

−17.5

AMCC

W 84-78

+7.5

HCU

L 60-61

+0.5

UIW

W 78-64

+16.5

LAM

W 77-71

+10.5

SFA

W 77-73

+15.5

MCN

L 63-66

+7.5

SELA

L 78-82

−10.5

HCU

W 73-60

+7.5

AMCC

L 61-74

−10.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+2.5

LSU

L 58-93

−11.5

TULN

W 85-63

−5.5

PEPP

L 79-90

+11.5

FRES

L 76-85

+6.5

MSST

L 78-81

−1.5

TTU

L 50-82

−25.5

MEM

L 70-86

+6.5

HCU

L 76-85

+20.5

UIW

W 84-83

+18.5

HOU

L 57-99

+17.5

RGV

W 85-69

+1.5

AMCC

L 69-83

+9.5

NWST

L 68-74

−7.5

ETAM

W 83-73

+5.5

NICH

L 77-90

+12.5

SELA

W 79-76

+12.5

SFA

L 79-84

+15.5

LAM

W 89-76

+20.5

MCN

L 63-82

−11.5

NICH

W 80-62

−15.5

NWST

W 75-64

−14.5

ETAM

W 94-85

+27.5

RGV

L 76-95

+19.5

AMCC

W 84-78

+15.5

HCU

L 60-61

−27.5

UIW

W 78-64

−12.5

LAM

W 77-71

+1.5

SFA

W 77-73

−3.5

MCN

L 63-66

−21.5

SELA

L 78-82

+16.5

HCU

W 73-60

−10.5

AMCC

L 61-74

−12.5

over 19under 14avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU N Orleans has the better starters

Position by position: UT Rio Grande 0, LSU N Orleans 1, even 4

UT Rio GrandeBetterLSU N Orleans

G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41

Even

G K. Singleton TR13.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2

NOLABig

G N. Jones TR14.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 65

G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75

No call

G J. Chretien1.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Boudouma5.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 13

G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F K. Osby4.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 10

UT Rio GrandeBetterLSU N Orleans

RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2

Even

NOLA defense316th of 366 · -8.2

RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8

Even

NOLA offense230th of 366 · -7.1

Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players

NOLASmall

Backcourt-1.8 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-3.6 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.4 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestRGV betterNOLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UT Rio Grande

Guards

D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew

Forwards

T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew

LSU N Orleans

Guards

K. Singleton35 min · TRN. Jones32 min · TRJ. Chretien9 minC. OkeyNewY. OrtizNewS. ParsonNew

Forwards

E. Boudouma18 minK. Osby17 minK. Ratliff9 min · TRW. CampbellNewS. OminuNewE. NwakammaNew

Centers

J. Pace5 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RGV73.7 #210

NOLA74.5 #178

Points per possession

RGV1.10 #137

NOLA1.06 #226

Pace (possessions)

RGV67.3 #268

NOLA70.2 #110

Shooting

Effective FG%

RGV54.8 #44

NOLA49.6 #258

3-point %

RGV36.8 #35

NOLA31.8 #287

3-point attempt rate

RGV43.7 #95

NOLA33.7 #302

Free throw rate

RGV28.9 #332

NOLA46.4 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

RGV18.5 #296

NOLA20.4 #353

Offensive rebound rate

RGV28.2 #257

NOLA35.6 #34

Assists per game

RGV15.7 #58

NOLA12.9 #214

Defense

Points allowed

RGV70.6 #67

NOLA77.7 #260

Points allowed per possession

RGV1.05 #86

NOLA1.11 #238

Opponent effective FG%

RGV47.8 #38

NOLA49.0 #71

Opponent 3-point %

RGV30.4 #16

NOLA32.4 #86

Turnovers forced

RGV16.2 #210

NOLA14.9 #301

Defensive rebound rate

RGV67.9 #266

NOLA65.5 #325

Steals per game

RGV5.9 #243

NOLA5.8 #258

Blocks per game

RGV2.8 #266

NOLA3.8 #105

RGV		NOLA
Scoring
73.7 #210	Points per game	74.5 #178
1.10 #137	Points per possession	1.06 #226
67.3 #268	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #110
Shooting
54.8 #44	Effective FG%	49.6 #258
36.8 #35	3-point %	31.8 #287
43.7 #95	3-point attempt rate	33.7 #302
28.9 #332	Free throw rate	46.4 #1
Possessions
18.5 #296	Turnover rate	20.4 #353
28.2 #257	Offensive rebound rate	35.6 #34
15.7 #58	Assists per game	12.9 #214
Defense
70.6 #67	Points allowed	77.7 #260
1.05 #86	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #238
47.8 #38	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #71
30.4 #16	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #86
16.2 #210	Turnovers forced	14.9 #301
67.9 #266	Defensive rebound rate	65.5 #325
5.9 #243	Steals per game	5.8 #258
2.8 #266	Blocks per game	3.8 #105

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs McNeese80–84
Wvs Nicholls86–68
Wvs N'Western St74–62
Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

LSU N Orleans

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M-CC61–74
Wvs Hou Christian73–60
Lvs SE Louisiana78–82
Lvs McNeese63–66
W@ SF Austin77–73

A week or more of rest.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at LSU New Orleans Privateers

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Rio Grande

LSU N Orleans

LSU N Orleans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UT Rio Grande

LSU N Orleans