1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 3
  3. WIU @ IU
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 3

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Indiana Hoosiers

Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana
#365WIUW Illinois
@
#38IUIndiana
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WIUThis seasonIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IU 94–54 · win probability IU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

WIU 1, IU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
IUBig
WIU offense vs IU defense
Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings
IUBig
IU offense vs WIU defense
Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WIU has played the 361st-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less
IUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0
IUBig
Three-pointers
WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 33.3% and 50.5% of their shots
IUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WIU 27.0%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: WIU 65.2%, IU 70.8%
IUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WIU 17.5%, IU 15.1%. Forced: WIU 14.9%, IU 15.1%
WIUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WIU 37.7, IU 35.0. Allowed: WIU 34.8, IU 37.0
IUSmall
Home court
IU at home. This season: IU 0-0 at home, WIU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: WIU plays 67.6 a game (246th fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WIU 21%, IU 19%. Transfers in: WIU 0, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—IU -39.8—
Total—147.4—
Projected score—WIU 53.8 · IU 93.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadIU -23.5—
1H total68.9—
1H projected scoreWIU 22.7 · IU 46.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Indiana has the better starters

Position by position: W Illinois 0, Indiana 2, even 3
W IllinoisBetterIndiana
G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9
IUBig
G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98
F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
IUBig
G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75
F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65
F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64
W IllinoisBetterIndiana
WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6
IUBig
IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0
WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6
IUBig
IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8
Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player
IUBig
Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players
IUBig
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWIU betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Illinois
Guards
M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew
Forwards
D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew
Indiana
Guards
M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min
Forwards
A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew
Centers
S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WIUIU
Scoring
63.2 #357Points per game78.2 #93
0.94 #359Points per possession1.16 #46
67.6 #246Pace (possessions)67.4 #260
Shooting
44.5 #361Effective FG%56.1 #22
30.9 #3223-point %34.7 #138
33.3 #3113-point attempt rate50.5 #14
37.7 #108Free throw rate35.0 #179
Possessions
17.5 #239Turnover rate15.1 #71
27.0 #293Offensive rebound rate26.9 #300
8.1 #365Assists per game16.6 #34
Defense
78.5 #281Points allowed72.2 #109
1.16 #334Points allowed per possession1.07 #131
54.2 #303Opponent effective FG%49.0 #68
35.6 #288Opponent 3-point %33.1 #128
14.9 #300Turnovers forced15.1 #284
65.2 #334Defensive rebound rate70.8 #122
5.1 #331Steals per game4.7 #348
2.0 #346Blocks per game2.7 #278
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
  • L@ SIUE47–67
  • Lvs Morehead St59–81
  • Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
  • Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern61–74
  • L@ Ohio State78–91
  • Wvs Minnesota77–47
  • Lvs Michigan St64–77
  • Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.