Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 7, 7:00 PM ETCarver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa · Conference game

#43IOWAIowa

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Indiana and Iowa
IU	This season	IOWA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IOWA 75–71 · win probability IOWA 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IOWA has more of the edges

IU 1, IOWA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

IOWABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IU 15.1%, IOWA 15.1%. Forced: IU 15.1%, IOWA 20.3%

IUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IU 56.1 and allows 49.0; IOWA 56.4 and allows 52.6

IOWASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IU 19%, IOWA 61%. Transfers in: IU 8, IOWA 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

IOWASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IU 26.9%, IOWA 30.2%. Defensive: IU 70.8%, IOWA 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: IU plays 67.4 a game (260th fastest), IOWA 63.0 (365th). Faster games mean more points

IOWASmall

Home court

IOWA at home. This season: IOWA 0-0 at home, IU 0-0 away

Even

IOWA offense vs IU defense

Offense 69th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings

Even

IU offense vs IOWA defense

Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%; IOWA hits 35.6% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 50.5% and 43.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

IU has played the 48th-hardest schedule, IOWA the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IU 35.0, IOWA 35.1. Allowed: IU 37.0, IOWA 38.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IOWA -3.2	—
Total	—	145.8	—
Projected score	—	IU 71.3 · IOWA 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IOWA -1.8	—
1H total	68.2	—
1H projected score	IU 33.2 · IOWA 35	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LLWLL	14-18	44%	4-7	—
IOWA LWWWL	21-16	57%	11-7	—

Venue/role: IU away; IOWA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UUUOU	14-18	44%	18-14
IOWA OUUOU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
IOWA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs UCF	No recent meeting

Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs ISU	L62–66WU
Dec 13	vs WIU	W77–58LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

IU 1–6 IOWAIOWA leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · IOWA has won the last 2 meetings · IU 2-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 17, 2025-26	IOWA 74 @ IU 57	IU -3.5	IOWA W
Jan 11, 2024-25	IU 60 @ IOWA 85	IOWA -4.5	IOWA W
Jan 30, 2023-24	IOWA 68 @ IU 74	IU -1.5	IU W
Feb 28, 2022-23	IOWA 90 @ IU 68	IU -5.5	IOWA W
Jan 5, 2022-23	IU 89 @ IOWA 91	IOWA -0.5	IOWA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Indiana

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O U U U O U O O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsMILW	W 101-70	-24.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 16	vsUIW	W 69-61	-28.5	L −20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsLIN	W 73-53	-32.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 25	vsKSU	W 86-69	-10.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 155
Nov 29	vsBCU	W 100-56	-29.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 3	@MINN	L 64-73	-7.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLOU	L 78-87	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 9	vsPSU	W 113-72	-14.5	W +26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	@UK	L 60-72	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsCHST	W 78-58	-38.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsSIE	W 81-60	-21.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 4	vsWASH	W 90-80	-9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@MD	W 84-66	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsNEB	L 77-83	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	@MSU	L 60-81	+6.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsIOWA	L 57-74	-3.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	@MICH	L 72-86	+15.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 23	@RUTG	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsPUR	W 72-67	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 31	@UCLA	W 98-97	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	@USC	L 75-81	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsWIS	W 78-77	-3.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 9	vsORE	W 92-74	-10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 15	@ILL	L 51-71	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 20	@PUR	L 64-93	+11.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsNU	L 68-72	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsMSU	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsMINN	W 77-47	-7.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	@OSU	L 78-91	+3.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsNU	L 61-74	-6.5	L −19.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

MILW

W 101-70

+6.5

UIW

W 69-61

−20.5

LIN

W 73-53

−12.5

KSU

W 86-69

+6.5

BCU

W 100-56

+14.5

MINN

L 64-73

−16.5

LOU

L 78-87

−5.5

PSU

W 113-72

+26.5

L 60-72

−8.5

CHST

W 78-58

−18.5

SIE

W 81-60

−0.5

WASH

W 90-80

+0.5

W 84-66

+10.5

NEB

L 77-83

−10.5

MSU

L 60-81

−14.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−20.5

MICH

L 72-86

+1.5

RUTG

W 82-59

+15.5

PUR

W 72-67

+9.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+4.5

USC

L 75-81

−7.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+7.5

ILL

L 51-71

−11.5

PUR

L 64-93

−17.5

L 68-72

−13.5

MSU

L 64-77

−10.5

MINN

W 77-47

+22.5

OSU

L 78-91

−9.5

L 61-74

−19.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

MILW

W 101-70

+5.5

UIW

W 69-61

−27.5

LIN

W 73-53

−29.5

KSU

W 86-69

−9.5

BCU

W 100-56

+7.5

MINN

L 64-73

−7.5

LOU

L 78-87

+2.5

PSU

W 113-72

+32.5

L 60-72

−24.5

CHST

W 78-58

−16.5

SIE

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 90-80

+17.5

W 84-66

+2.5

NEB

L 77-83

+9.5

MSU

L 60-81

−4.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−15.5

MICH

L 72-86

−5.5

RUTG

W 82-59

−6.5

PUR

W 72-67

−11.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+50.5

USC

L 75-81

+2.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+22.5

ILL

L 51-71

−31.5

PUR

L 64-93

+6.5

L 68-72

−5.5

MSU

L 64-77

−3.5

MINN

W 77-47

−14.5

OSU

L 78-91

+20.5

L 61-74

−7.5

over 14under 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

21-16

57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L L W L W L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1657%

W L W W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1754%

O U U O O O U U O U O U O U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U U O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsRMU	W 101-69	-22.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 7	vsWIU	W 77-58	-30.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 14	vsXAV	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsSEMO	W 99-70	-23.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 20	vsCHST	W 93-54	-31.5	W +7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	vsMISS	W 74-69	-4.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsGCU	W 59-46	-8.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 105
Dec 2	@MSU	L 52-71	+5.5	L −13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsMD	W 83-64	-10.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 11	@ISU	L 62-66	+11.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 14	vsWMU	W 91-51	-25.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUCK	W 94-39	-25.5	W +29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 29	vsUML	W 90-62	-33.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 3	vsUCLA	W 74-61	-6.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@MINN	L 67-70	-4.5	L −7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 11	vsILL	L 69-75	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@PUR	L 72-79	+10.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Jan 17	@IU	W 74-57	+3.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	vsRUTG	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 130
Jan 28	vsUSC	W 73-72	-9.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 145
Feb 1	@ORE	W 84-66	-9.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 4	@WASH	W 84-74	-2.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 8	vsNU	W 76-70	-10.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	@MD	L 70-77	-10.5	L −17.5	138.5	O 147
Feb 14	vsPUR	L 57-78	+2.5	L −18.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 17	vsNEB	W 57-52	-1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 22	@WIS	L 71-84	+2.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 25	vsOSU	W 74-57	-6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 28	@PSU	L 69-71	-9.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsMICH	L 68-71	+9.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 8	@NEB	L 75-84	+4.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 11	vsMD	W 75-64	-11.5	L −0.5	133.5	O 139
Mar 12	vsOSU	L 69-72	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 20	vsCLEM	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	130.5	U 128
Mar 22	vsFLA	W 73-72	+10.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 26	vsNEB	W 77-71	+1.5	W +7.5	131.5	O 148
Mar 28	vsILL	L 59-71	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+9.5

WIU

W 77-58

−11.5

XAV

W 81-62

+3.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+5.5

CHST

W 93-54

+7.5

MISS

W 74-69

+0.5

GCU

W 59-46

+4.5

MSU

L 52-71

−13.5

W 83-64

+8.5

ISU

L 62-66

+7.5

WMU

W 91-51

+14.5

BUCK

W 94-39

+29.5

UML

W 90-62

−5.5

UCLA

W 74-61

+6.5

MINN

L 67-70

−7.5

ILL

L 69-75

−4.5

PUR

L 72-79

+3.5

W 74-57

+20.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−11.5

USC

W 73-72

−8.5

ORE

W 84-66

+8.5

WASH

W 84-74

+7.5

W 76-70

−4.5

L 70-77

−17.5

PUR

L 57-78

−18.5

NEB

W 57-52

+3.5

WIS

L 71-84

−10.5

OSU

W 74-57

+10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−11.5

MICH

L 68-71

+6.5

NEB

L 75-84

−4.5

W 75-64

−0.5

OSU

L 69-72

−4.5

CLEM

W 67-61

+4.5

FLA

W 73-72

+11.5

NEB

W 77-71

+7.5

ILL

L 59-71

−5.5

covered 21didn’t cover 16avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+33.5

WIU

W 77-58

−10.5

XAV

W 81-62

−0.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+21.5

CHST

W 93-54

+4.5

MISS

W 74-69

+2.5

GCU

W 59-46

−38.5

MSU

L 52-71

−10.5

W 83-64

+9.5

ISU

L 62-66

−13.5

WMU

W 91-51

+4.5

BUCK

W 94-39

−0.5

UML

W 90-62

+6.5

UCLA

W 74-61

−5.5

MINN

L 67-70

+6.5

ILL

L 69-75

+1.5

PUR

L 72-79

+5.5

W 74-57

−15.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−10.5

USC

W 73-72

+3.5

ORE

W 84-66

+16.5

WASH

W 84-74

+16.5

W 76-70

+6.5

L 70-77

+8.5

PUR

L 57-78

−7.5

NEB

W 57-52

−30.5

WIS

L 71-84

+7.5

OSU

W 74-57

−10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−3.5

MICH

L 68-71

−7.5

NEB

L 75-84

+22.5

W 75-64

+5.5

OSU

L 69-72

+0.5

CLEM

W 67-61

−2.5

FLA

W 73-72

−0.5

NEB

W 77-71

+16.5

ILL

L 59-71

−8.5

over 20under 17avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Indiana has the better starters

Position by position: Indiana 1, Iowa 0, even 4

IndianaBetterIowa

G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98

IUBig

G K. Combs6.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75

Even

G T. Coleman TR10 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 82

G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65

Even

F C. Koch7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 57

F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

Even

F C. Manyawu6.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64

Even

C A. McKeever TR8.3 pts · 9.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 77

IndianaBetterIowa

IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8

Even

IOWA defense20th of 366 · +5.4

IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0

Even

IOWA offense69th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

IUBig

Backcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players

IUSmall

Frontcourt+4.1 · 3 players

Bench+0.1 · 5 players

IOWASmall

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIU betterIOWA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Indiana

Guards

M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min

Forwards

A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew

Centers

S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew

Iowa

Guards

K. Combs26 minT. Coleman23 min · TRI. Howard18 minT. Sage16 minJ. Koch2 minP. McCollumNew

Forwards

C. Koch28 minC. Manyawu19 minJ. Matteoni4 minT. ThompsonNew

Centers

A. McKeever23 min · TRT. Jirak8 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IU78.2 #93

IOWA74.5 #177

Points per possession

IU1.16 #46

IOWA1.18 #28

Pace (possessions)

IU67.4 #260

IOWA63.0 #365

Shooting

Effective FG%

IU56.1 #22

IOWA56.4 #17

3-point %

IU34.7 #138

IOWA35.6 #85

3-point attempt rate

IU50.5 #14

IOWA43.0 #117

Free throw rate

IU35.0 #179

IOWA35.1 #176

Possessions

Turnover rate

IU15.1 #71

IOWA15.1 #75

Offensive rebound rate

IU26.9 #300

IOWA30.2 #192

Assists per game

IU16.6 #34

IOWA15.0 #88

Defense

Points allowed

IU72.2 #109

IOWA66.3 #16

Points allowed per possession

IU1.07 #131

IOWA1.05 #91

Opponent effective FG%

IU49.0 #68

IOWA52.6 #245

Opponent 3-point %

IU33.1 #128

IOWA33.3 #143

Turnovers forced

IU15.1 #284

IOWA20.3 #17

Defensive rebound rate

IU70.8 #122

IOWA70.8 #119

Steals per game

IU4.7 #348

IOWA6.8 #140

Blocks per game

IU2.7 #278

IOWA1.9 #349

IU		IOWA
Scoring
78.2 #93	Points per game	74.5 #177
1.16 #46	Points per possession	1.18 #28
67.4 #260	Pace (possessions)	63.0 #365
Shooting
56.1 #22	Effective FG%	56.4 #17
34.7 #138	3-point %	35.6 #85
50.5 #14	3-point attempt rate	43.0 #117
35.0 #179	Free throw rate	35.1 #176
Possessions
15.1 #71	Turnover rate	15.1 #75
26.9 #300	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #192
16.6 #34	Assists per game	15.0 #88
Defense
72.2 #109	Points allowed	66.3 #16
1.07 #131	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #91
49.0 #68	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #245
33.1 #128	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #143
15.1 #284	Turnovers forced	20.3 #17
70.8 #122	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #119
4.7 #348	Steals per game	6.8 #140
2.7 #278	Blocks per game	1.9 #349

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern61–74
L@ Ohio State78–91
Wvs Minnesota77–47
Lvs Michigan St64–77
Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.

Iowa

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois59–71
Wvs Nebraska77–71
Wvs Florida73–72
Wvs Clemson67–61
Lvs Ohio State69–72

A week or more of rest.

Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes

What could decide it: IOWA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Indiana

Iowa

Indiana has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Indiana

Iowa