1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 3
  3. SDAK @ UNF
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 3

South Dakota Coyotes at North Florida Ospreys

UNF Arena · at North Florida
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
@
#333UNFNorth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDAKThis seasonUNF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDAK 81–81 · win probability SDAK 52%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 162.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SDAK 4, UNF 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDAKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDAK 45.2, UNF 28.8. Allowed: SDAK 31.0, UNF 31.4
SDAKBig
SDAK offense vs UNF defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
SDAKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDAK 28.7%, UNF 25.2%. Defensive: SDAK 69.7%, UNF 62.4%
Context
Schedule so far
SDAK has played the 305th-hardest schedule, UNF the 168th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNFBig
UNF offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
SDAKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDAK 16.5%, UNF 17.8%. Forced: SDAK 15.9%, UNF 12.8%
UNFSmall
Three-pointers
SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%; UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 35.9% and 51.7% of their shots
UNFSmall
Home court
UNF at home. This season: UNF 0-0 at home, SDAK 0-0 away
UNFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5; UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDAK 26%, UNF 45%. Transfers in: SDAK 6, UNF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: SDAK plays 72.6 a game (23rd fastest), UNF 72.3 (31st). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDAK -0.7—
Total—162.1—
Projected score—SDAK 81.4 · UNF 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDAK -0.5—
1H total75.7—
1H projected scoreSDAK 38.1 · UNF 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: South Dakota 1, North Florida 1, even 3
South DakotaBetterNorth Florida
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
UNFSmall
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
SDAKSmall
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
Even
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
Even
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
Even
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
South DakotaBetterNorth Florida
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
SDAKBig
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
UNFBig
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
SDAKBig
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
UNFSmall
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSDAK betterUNF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDAKUNF
Scoring
78.0 #94Points per game77.1 #112
1.07 #207Points per possession1.06 #218
72.6 #23Pace (possessions)72.3 #31
Shooting
49.9 #239Effective FG%52.9 #106
32.4 #2643-point %35.0 #117
35.9 #2513-point attempt rate51.7 #7
45.2 #4Free throw rate28.8 #333
Possessions
16.5 #168Turnover rate17.8 #261
28.7 #242Offensive rebound rate25.2 #335
11.9 #295Assists per game13.4 #185
Defense
81.7 #337Points allowed89.6 #365
1.13 #284Points allowed per possession1.24 #364
54.5 #318Opponent effective FG%56.3 #349
34.5 #219Opponent 3-point %35.1 #253
15.9 #225Turnovers forced12.8 #360
69.7 #172Defensive rebound rate62.4 #361
6.1 #223Steals per game4.6 #352
2.6 #293Blocks per game1.4 #364
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.