1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. SDAK @ SF
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

South Dakota Coyotes at San Francisco Dons

The Sobrato Center · at San Francisco
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
@
#161SFSan Francisco
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDAKThis seasonSF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SF 81–72 · win probability SF 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

SDAK 0, SF 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SDAK has played the 305th-hardest schedule, SF the 98th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SFBig
SF offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SDAK plays 72.6 a game (23rd fastest), SF 67.3 (271st). Faster games mean more points
SFBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5; SF 51.3 and allows 50.8
SFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDAK 28.7%, SF 31.4%. Defensive: SDAK 69.7%, SF 71.0%
SFSmall
Three-pointers
SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%; SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 35.9% and 46.1% of their shots
SFSmall
Home court
SF at home. This season: SF 0-0 at home, SDAK 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDAK 26%, SF 3%. Transfers in: SDAK 6, SF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDAK 16.5%, SF 15.9%. Forced: SDAK 15.9%, SF 14.1%
Even
SDAK offense vs SF defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDAK 45.2, SF 40.1. Allowed: SDAK 31.0, SF 29.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SF -9.9—
Total—153.0—
Projected score—SDAK 71.5 · SF 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSF -5.8—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreSDAK 32.9 · SF 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: South Dakota 0, San Francisco 0, even 5
South DakotaBetterSan Francisco
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
No call
G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
No call
G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
Even
F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
No call
F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
No call
C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
South DakotaBetterSan Francisco
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
Even
SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
SFBig
SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
SFBig
Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSDAK betterSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
San Francisco
Guards
A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew
Forwards
B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew
Centers
I. Diagne7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDAKSF
Scoring
78.0 #94Points per game73.9 #198
1.07 #207Points per possession1.10 #131
72.6 #23Pace (possessions)67.3 #271
Shooting
49.9 #239Effective FG%51.3 #184
32.4 #2643-point %34.6 #140
35.9 #2513-point attempt rate46.1 #45
45.2 #4Free throw rate40.1 #59
Possessions
16.5 #168Turnover rate15.9 #129
28.7 #242Offensive rebound rate31.4 #148
11.9 #295Assists per game13.6 #174
Defense
81.7 #337Points allowed73.8 #149
1.13 #284Points allowed per possession1.09 #206
54.5 #318Opponent effective FG%50.8 #143
34.5 #219Opponent 3-point %34.1 #187
15.9 #225Turnovers forced14.1 #331
69.7 #172Defensive rebound rate71.0 #105
6.1 #223Steals per game5.1 #332
2.6 #293Blocks per game2.9 #238
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oregon St77–78
  • Wvs Portland82–65
  • W@ Pacific72–61
  • Lvs Santa Clara73–94
  • Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.