Northwestern State Demons at Lamar Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 7:00 PM ETMontagne Center · at Lamar · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N'Western St and Lamar
NWST	This season	LAM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAM 71–66 · win probability LAM 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAM has more of the edges

NWST 3, LAM 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LAMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NWST 26.1%, LAM 35.7%. Defensive: NWST 67.4%, LAM 70.6%

NWSTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NWST 40.1, LAM 27.9. Allowed: NWST 36.3, LAM 44.4

LAMBig

NWST offense vs LAM defense

Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 213th, on the model’s ratings

NWSTSmall

LAM offense vs NWST defense

Offense 334th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings

LAMSmall

Home court

LAM at home. This season: LAM 0-0 at home, NWST 0-0 away

NWSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NWST 28%, LAM 0%. Transfers in: NWST 2, LAM 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LAMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0; LAM 47.8 and allows 50.9

Context

Schedule so far

NWST has played the 292nd-hardest schedule, LAM the 328th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NWST 18.3%, LAM 18.1%. Forced: NWST 16.9%, LAM 17.3%

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: NWST plays 65.4 a game (334th fastest), LAM 66.1 (311th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; LAM hits 32.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 33.9% and 33.9% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LAM -4.9	—
Total	—	137.6	—
Projected score	—	NWST 66.3 · LAM 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LAM -2.8	—
1H total	64.4	—
1H projected score	NWST 30.8 · LAM 33.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NWST WWLLL	17-13	57%	9-8	—
LAM WLLLL	12-17	41%	4-9	—

Venue/role: NWST away; LAM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NWST UUUUU	15-15	50%	8-22
LAM UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NWST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
LAM	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N'Western St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ GCU	L72–85WO
Dec 14	@ UTM	No recent meeting

Lamar

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs ETAM	W82–61WO
Dec 10	@ PORT	No recent meeting
Dec 11	@ ORST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

NWST 3–5 LAMLAM leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · NWST 1-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	NWST 70 @ LAM 68	LAM -6.5	NWST W
Dec 29, 2025-26	LAM 76 @ NWST 61	NWST +3.5	LAM W
Feb 17, 2024-25	LAM 75 @ NWST 65	NWST -0.5	LAM W
Jan 27, 2024-25	NWST 59 @ LAM 69	LAM -5.5	LAM W
Mar 2, 2023-24	LAM 82 @ NWST 77	NWST +3	LAM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N'Western St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O O O O O O U U U O O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TA&M	L 68-98	+21.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	@UNT	L 53-80	+11.5	L −15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 11	@UNA	L 83-87	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 18	@SF	L 64-84	+16.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 21	@GCU	L 72-85	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 29	vsSOU	L 73-75	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 5	@MCN	L 54-92	+19.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 7	@SELA	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@CAL	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsLAM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	138.5	U 137
Dec 31	vsSFA	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 138
Jan 3	vsNOLA	W 74-68	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	@NICH	L 72-74	+8.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsAMCC	W 79-78	+5.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsRGV	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	@UIW	L 74-76	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 19	@HCU	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 27	@SFA	L 67-69	+14.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 31	@NOLA	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	153.5	U 139
Feb 2	vsNICH	L 58-61	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsETAM	L 68-74	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 7	@ETAM	L 48-52	+1.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 100
Feb 9	@LAM	W 70-68	+6.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsSELA	W 69-66	-1.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	vsMCN	L 64-75	+14.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsHCU	W 71-53	-2.5	W +15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsUIW	W 54-49	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 103
Feb 28	@AMCC	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	134.5	U 130
Mar 2	@RGV	L 62-74	+9.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 8	vsNICH	L 47-61	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

−8.5

UNT

L 53-80

−15.5

UNA

L 83-87

+2.5

L 64-84

−3.5

GCU

L 72-85

+5.5

SOU

L 73-75

+1.5

MCN

L 54-92

−18.5

SELA

W 76-68

+15.5

CAL

L 70-79

+10.5

LAM

L 61-76

−11.5

SFA

L 64-74

−1.5

NOLA

W 74-68

+7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+6.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+6.5

RGV

W 64-63

+3.5

UIW

L 74-76

+6.5

HCU

L 80-82

+0.5

SFA

L 67-69

+12.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−6.5

NICH

L 58-61

−1.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−9.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−2.5

LAM

W 70-68

+8.5

SELA

W 69-66

+1.5

MCN

L 64-75

+3.5

HCU

W 71-53

+15.5

UIW

W 54-49

+3.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−6.5

RGV

L 62-74

−2.5

NICH

L 47-61

−12.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

+12.5

UNT

L 53-80

−4.5

UNA

L 83-87

+27.5

L 64-84

+4.5

GCU

L 72-85

+9.5

SOU

L 73-75

+3.5

MCN

L 54-92

+6.5

SELA

W 76-68

+10.5

CAL

L 70-79

+3.5

LAM

L 61-76

−1.5

SFA

L 64-74

−0.5

NOLA

W 74-68

−7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+1.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+18.5

RGV

W 64-63

−16.5

UIW

L 74-76

+8.5

HCU

L 80-82

+22.5

SFA

L 67-69

−5.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−14.5

NICH

L 58-61

−28.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−1.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−40.5

LAM

W 70-68

+2.5

SELA

W 69-66

+3.5

MCN

L 64-75

+0.5

HCU

W 71-53

−10.5

UIW

W 54-49

−35.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−4.5

RGV

L 62-74

−3.5

NICH

L 47-61

−30.5

over 15under 15avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lamar

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

12-17

41% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W W L W L L L L W W L L W W W L L W L W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1741%

W W W L L L L L L W W W L W L W L L W W W L L L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U O U O U U O O O U U O U U U O O O O U U O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@TCU	L 65-78	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 17	@ULM	W 79-66	-11.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 23	@MONT	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 131
Nov 24	vsOAK	L 68-83	+3.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsUL	W 65-55	-10.5	L −0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsAMCC	L 49-57	-3.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 10	@SDSU	L 71-89	+17.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 160
Dec 16	vsRGV	L 72-83	-3.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsOMA	L 82-85	-5.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 167
Dec 29	@NWST	W 76-61	-3.5	W +11.5	138.5	U 137
Dec 31	@ETAM	W 69-62	-5.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 131
Jan 2	@MCN	L 70-82	+16.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 5	@SELA	L 52-60	-1.5	L −9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	vsUIW	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Jan 12	vsHCU	W 64-56	-8.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 120
Jan 17	@NICH	W 90-80	+3.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 170
Jan 19	@NOLA	L 76-89	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsSFA	L 81-88	+4.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 169
Jan 27	vsETAM	W 82-61	-6.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 143
Jan 31	vsMCN	L 63-64	+10.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 2	vsSELA	W 73-54	-5.5	W +13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	@SFA	L 74-84	+8.5	L −1.5	138.5	O 158
Feb 9	vsNWST	L 68-70	-6.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 14	@AMCC	L 63-76	+2.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 139
Feb 16	@RGV	L 65-70	+6.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 21	vsNOLA	L 71-77	-4.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 23	vsNICH	L 52-53	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 105
Feb 28	@UIW	L 60-72	+1.5	L −10.5	138.5	U 132
Mar 2	@HCU	L 53-75	-2.5	L −24.5	132.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

+5.5

ULM

W 79-66

+1.5

MONT

W 68-63

+9.5

OAK

L 68-83

−11.5

W 65-55

−0.5

AMCC

L 49-57

−11.5

SDSU

L 71-89

−0.5

RGV

L 72-83

−14.5

OMA

L 82-85

−8.5

NWST

W 76-61

+11.5

ETAM

W 69-62

+1.5

MCN

L 70-82

+4.5

SELA

L 52-60

−9.5

UIW

W 63-51

+10.5

HCU

W 64-56

−0.5

NICH

W 90-80

+13.5

NOLA

L 76-89

−14.5

SFA

L 81-88

−2.5

ETAM

W 82-61

+14.5

MCN

L 63-64

+9.5

SELA

W 73-54

+13.5

SFA

L 74-84

−1.5

NWST

L 68-70

−8.5

AMCC

L 63-76

−10.5

RGV

L 65-70

+1.5

NOLA

L 71-77

−10.5

NICH

L 52-53

−4.5

UIW

L 60-72

−10.5

HCU

L 53-75

−24.5

covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

−4.5

ULM

W 79-66

+4.5

MONT

W 68-63

−17.5

OAK

L 68-83

+2.5

W 65-55

−9.5

AMCC

L 49-57

−30.5

SDSU

L 71-89

+24.5

RGV

L 72-83

+15.5

OMA

L 82-85

+25.5

NWST

W 76-61

−1.5

ETAM

W 69-62

−12.5

MCN

L 70-82

+6.5

SELA

L 52-60

−23.5

UIW

W 63-51

−26.5

HCU

W 64-56

−14.5

NICH

W 90-80

+30.5

NOLA

L 76-89

+20.5

SFA

L 81-88

+32.5

ETAM

W 82-61

+2.5

MCN

L 63-64

−17.5

SELA

W 73-54

−5.5

SFA

L 74-84

+19.5

NWST

L 68-70

+2.5

AMCC

L 63-76

+3.5

RGV

L 65-70

−6.5

NOLA

L 71-77

+1.5

NICH

L 52-53

−38.5

UIW

L 60-72

−6.5

HCU

L 53-75

−4.5

over 14under 15avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: N'Western St 2, Lamar 2, even 1

N'Western StBetterLamar

G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57

NWSTSmall

G F. Radakovic TR9.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.5 ast Score 38

G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1

LAMSmall

G N. Moretti TR5.9 pts · 2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 24

F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

LAMBig

G Q. Berry TR6.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 61

F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

Even

G M. Collins TR1.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 1 ast Score 12

F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34

NWSTSmall

F M. Ljubicic TR5.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 7

N'Western StBetterLamar

NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5

LAMBig

LAM defense213th of 366 · -5.4

NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2

NWSTSmall

LAM offense334th of 366 · -10.9

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.4 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.8 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestNWST betterLAM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N'Western St

Guards

I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew

Forwards

D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew

Lamar

Guards

F. Radakovic27 min · TRN. Moretti27 min · TRQ. Berry18 min · TRM. Collins9 min · TRJ. JonesNewS. LynchNew

Forwards

M. Ljubicic20 min · TRM. Reed7 min · TRC. HinkerNewA. AgotNewD. EasonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NWST66.1 #346

LAM68.4 #308

Points per possession

NWST1.01 #315

LAM1.04 #279

Pace (possessions)

NWST65.4 #334

LAM66.1 #311

Shooting

Effective FG%

NWST48.6 #301

LAM47.8 #318

3-point %

NWST33.2 #218

LAM32.9 #238

3-point attempt rate

NWST33.9 #298

LAM33.9 #297

Free throw rate

NWST40.1 #58

LAM27.9 #344

Possessions

Turnover rate

NWST18.3 #286

LAM18.1 #273

Offensive rebound rate

NWST26.1 #321

LAM35.7 #31

Assists per game

NWST11.3 #322

LAM13.9 #157

Defense

Points allowed

NWST72.9 #129

LAM70.5 #64

Points allowed per possession

NWST1.12 #262

LAM1.07 #122

Opponent effective FG%

NWST53.0 #270

LAM50.9 #153

Opponent 3-point %

NWST35.5 #278

LAM35.3 #266

Turnovers forced

NWST16.9 #160

LAM17.3 #130

Defensive rebound rate

NWST67.4 #286

LAM70.6 #130

Steals per game

NWST6.2 #215

LAM6.1 #227

Blocks per game

NWST2.3 #321

LAM4.2 #54

NWST		LAM
Scoring
66.1 #346	Points per game	68.4 #308
1.01 #315	Points per possession	1.04 #279
65.4 #334	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #311
Shooting
48.6 #301	Effective FG%	47.8 #318
33.2 #218	3-point %	32.9 #238
33.9 #298	3-point attempt rate	33.9 #297
40.1 #58	Free throw rate	27.9 #344
Possessions
18.3 #286	Turnover rate	18.1 #273
26.1 #321	Offensive rebound rate	35.7 #31
11.3 #322	Assists per game	13.9 #157
Defense
72.9 #129	Points allowed	70.5 #64
1.12 #262	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #122
53.0 #270	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #153
35.5 #278	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #266
16.9 #160	Turnovers forced	17.3 #130
67.4 #286	Defensive rebound rate	70.6 #130
6.2 #215	Steals per game	6.1 #227
2.3 #321	Blocks per game	4.2 #54

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nicholls47–61
L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

Lamar

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Hou Christian53–75
L@ Incarnate Word60–72
Lvs Nicholls52–53
Lvs LSU N Orleans71–77
L@ UT Rio Grande65–70

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern State Demons at Lamar Cardinals

What could decide it: LAM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N'Western St

Lamar

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N'Western St

Lamar