1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. VAL @ UNCW
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Valparaiso Beacons at UNC Wilmington Seahawks

Trask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington
#176VALValparaiso
@
#120UNCWUNC Wilmington
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VALThis seasonUNCW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCW 75–70 · win probability UNCW 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

VAL 0, UNCW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCWSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5; UNCW 50.4 and allows 47.5
UNCWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VAL 32.5%, UNCW 35.3%. Defensive: VAL 69.9%, UNCW 72.4%
Context
Schedule so far
VAL has played the 143rd-hardest schedule, UNCW the 228th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNCWSmall
VAL offense vs UNCW defense
Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 119th, on the model’s ratings
UNCWSmall
Three-pointers
VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%; UNCW hits 35.0% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 36.8% and 38.8% of their shots
UNCWSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: VAL 39.1, UNCW 40.4. Allowed: VAL 35.1, UNCW 31.7
UNCWSmall
Home court
UNCW at home. This season: UNCW 0-0 at home, VAL 0-0 away
Even
UNCW offense vs VAL defense
Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VAL 15.7%, UNCW 14.9%. Forced: VAL 16.9%, UNCW 14.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VAL 51%, UNCW 35%. Transfers in: VAL 2, UNCW 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: VAL plays 67.4 a game (258th fastest), UNCW 66.1 (310th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNCW -5.6—
Total—144.7—
Projected score—VAL 69.6 · UNCW 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNCW -3.2—
1H total67.7—
1H projected scoreVAL 32.2 · UNCW 35.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Position by position: Valparaiso 1, UNC Wilmington 2, even 2
ValparaisoBetterUNC Wilmington
G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62
Even
G W. Kermoury TR13.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 75
G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34
UNCWSmall
G T. Pettway TR8.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 2 ast Score 64
G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65
Even
F G. Walsh9.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 57
F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70
VALBig
F S. Elliott TR4.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 23
F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23
UNCWBig
C P. Wessler13.5 pts · 9.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 87
ValparaisoBetterUNC Wilmington
VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1
UNCWSmall
UNCW defense119th of 366 · -1.8
VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9
Even
UNCW offense131st of 366 · -3.7
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
UNCWSmall
Backcourt+1.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
UNCWSmall
Frontcourt+2.5 · 3 players
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestVAL betterUNCW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Valparaiso
Guards
R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min
Forwards
J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew
Centers
K. Yu8 min · TR
UNC Wilmington
Guards
W. Kermoury27 min · TRT. Pettway22 min · TRJ. Lamothe15 minX. Brown12 min · TRM. Smith3 minC. LusterNew
Forwards
G. Walsh26 minS. Elliott17 min · TRT. NelsonNewM. ProdanovicNewW. SewardNew
Centers
P. Wessler27 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VALUNCW
Scoring
71.2 #263Points per game74.6 #174
1.06 #233Points per possession1.13 #84
67.4 #258Pace (possessions)66.1 #310
Shooting
47.6 #322Effective FG%50.4 #220
33.9 #1803-point %35.0 #124
36.8 #2343-point attempt rate38.8 #194
39.1 #79Free throw rate40.4 #54
Possessions
15.7 #116Turnover rate14.9 #57
32.5 #110Offensive rebound rate35.3 #40
11.7 #307Assists per game13.1 #204
Defense
71.9 #103Points allowed68.1 #32
1.06 #116Points allowed per possession1.03 #56
50.5 #130Opponent effective FG%47.5 #30
32.1 #70Opponent 3-point %29.7 #6
16.9 #161Turnovers forced14.9 #297
69.9 #167Defensive rebound rate72.4 #51
5.9 #245Steals per game5.1 #330
3.6 #124Blocks per game2.4 #312
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bradley84–90
  • Wvs Indiana St63–62
  • L@ Evansville79–80
  • Wvs Drake74–71
  • W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.

UNC Wilmington

25-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton61–80
  • W@ Yale68–67
  • Lvs Campbell70–85
  • W@ Elon76–57
  • Lvs Charleston76–79

A week or more of rest.