Rider Broncs at Canisius Golden Griffins: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 7:00 PM ETKoessler Athletic Center · at Canisius · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rider and Canisius
RID	This season	CAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CAN 71–68 · win probability CAN 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CAN has more of the edges

RID 1, CAN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CANBig

Three-pointers

RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; CAN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 27.5% and 39.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, CAN the 337th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CANSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; CAN 46.3 and allows 52.2

CANSmall

Home court

CAN at home. This season: CAN 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away

RIDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, CAN 19.6%. Forced: RID 15.3%, CAN 16.0%

Even

CAN offense vs RID defense

Offense 358th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings

Even

RID offense vs CAN defense

Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 321st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RID 30.1, CAN 31.4. Allowed: RID 32.5, CAN 35.2

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), CAN 64.6 (353rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, CAN 29.3%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, CAN 70.2%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, CAN 1%. Transfers in: RID 6, CAN 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CAN -2.2	—
Total	—	139.0	—
Projected score	—	RID 68.4 · CAN 70.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CAN -1.2	—
1H total	65.1	—
1H projected score	RID 31.9 · CAN 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LLWLL	9-19	32%	6-10	—
CAN LWLWW	15-15	50%	7-7	—

Venue/role: RID away; CAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID OOUUU	9-19	32%	3-25
CAN UOUUU	9-21	30%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RID	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
CAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rider

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ NIA	W67–62WU
Dec 9	@ GTWN	No recent meeting

Canisius

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs MSM	L47–68LU
Dec 12	@ DUQ	L59–103LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

RID 5–4 CANRID leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · RID 5-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 20, 2025-26	CAN 72 @ RID 66	RID -1.5	CAN W
Mar 6, 2024-25	CAN 50 @ RID 78	RID -10.5	RID W
Jan 10, 2024-25	RID 67 @ CAN 85	CAN +2.5	CAN W
Mar 3, 2023-24	RID 65 @ CAN 61	CAN +2.5	RID W
Jan 7, 2023-24	CAN 76 @ RID 79	RID -1.5	RID W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

28 games played

Straight up

3-25

11% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-19

32% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2511%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W W L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-1932%

U U O O U U U U U O U O U U U U O U O O U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 20	@HOU	L 45-91	+40.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 25	vsCOPP	L 65-68	-8.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 133
Dec 4	@MRMK	L 66-68	+9.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	@QUIN	L 58-72	+14.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 130
Dec 9	vsBUCK	L 38-51	+2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 16	@DEL	L 57-65	+8.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 122
Dec 22	@VCU	L 79-100	+30.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMAN	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsSIE	L 65-74	+8.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	@FAIR	L 62-68	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsMRST	L 49-71	+10.5	L −11.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 14	vsIONA	W 72-68	+7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 17	@SPU	L 58-69	+10.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 127
Jan 19	vsSHU	L 85-105	+4.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 190
Jan 24	@MSM	L 61-71	+9.5	L −0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@MAN	L 90-95	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 185
Feb 1	vsSPU	W 81-78	+7.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 5	@MRST	L 52-81	+14.5	L −14.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsMRMK	L 47-73	+8.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 13	vsMSM	L 55-65	+5.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 15	@SHU	L 75-86	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 20	vsCAN	L 66-72	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	vsNIA	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 129
Feb 27	@IONA	L 58-80	+11.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Mar 1	@SIE	L 61-76	+14.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

HOU

L 45-91

−5.5

COPP

L 65-68

−11.5

MRMK

L 66-68

+7.5

QUIN

L 58-72

+0.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−10.5

DEL

L 57-65

+0.5

VCU

L 79-100

+9.5

MAN

L 71-74

−0.5

SIE

L 65-74

−0.5

FAIR

L 62-68

+2.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

+11.5

SPU

L 58-69

−0.5

SHU

L 85-105

−15.5

MSM

L 61-71

−0.5

MAN

L 90-95

+0.5

SPU

W 81-78

+10.5

MRST

L 52-81

−14.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−4.5

SHU

L 75-86

−1.5

CAN

L 66-72

−7.5

NIA

W 67-62

+6.5

IONA

L 58-80

−10.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

HOU

L 45-91

+1.5

COPP

L 65-68

−6.5

MRMK

L 66-68

−4.5

QUIN

L 58-72

−17.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−46.5

DEL

L 57-65

−7.5

VCU

L 79-100

+33.5

MAN

L 71-74

−2.5

SIE

L 65-74

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-68

−15.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

−1.5

SPU

L 58-69

−7.5

SHU

L 85-105

+45.5

MSM

L 61-71

−7.5

MAN

L 90-95

+39.5

SPU

W 81-78

+22.5

MRST

L 52-81

−2.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−17.5

SHU

L 75-86

+14.5

CAN

L 66-72

+6.5

NIA

W 67-62

−2.5

IONA

L 58-80

−3.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

over 9under 19avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Canisius

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-21

30% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2130%

U O U U U O U U U U U O O O U U U O U U O O U U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DAY	L 48-88	+25.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	@SBU	L 70-89	+21.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMERC	W 58-55	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 17	@HPU	L 50-93	+23.5	L −19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 21	vsUMES	W 60-57	-3.5	L −0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 23	vsBING	W 75-66	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 141
Nov 29	vsBUF	L 53-71	+9.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 5	@SPU	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 126
Dec 7	@SIE	L 52-74	+17.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 13	@ME	W 70-43	+6.5	W +33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 16	@URI	L 45-62	+21.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	@DUQ	L 59-103	+19.5	L −24.5	143.5	O 162
Jan 2	vsFAIR	W 85-81	+6.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	vsSHU	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 160
Jan 9	@MAN	W 70-64	+7.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	@IONA	L 48-74	+11.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	vsNIA	L 54-59	-2.5	L −7.5	126.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsMSM	L 68-78	+3.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 22	@SHU	L 66-69	+10.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 24	@FAIR	L 55-61	+10.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsMRST	L 86-88	+9.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 174
Feb 1	vsSIE	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 3	@NIA	L 56-65	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	U 121
Feb 5	@QUIN	L 60-75	+15.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsIONA	L 63-69	+4.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 132
Feb 15	vsMAN	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 20	@RID	W 72-66	+1.5	W +7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	@MSM	L 47-68	+7.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	vsMRMK	W 67-62	+8.5	W +13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	vsQUIN	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−14.5

SBU

L 70-89

+2.5

MERC

W 58-55

+4.5

HPU

L 50-93

−19.5

UMES

W 60-57

−0.5

BING

W 75-66

+6.5

BUF

L 53-71

−8.5

SPU

L 57-69

−2.5

SIE

L 52-74

−4.5

W 70-43

+33.5

URI

L 45-62

+4.5

DUQ

L 59-103

−24.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+10.5

SHU

W 82-78

+9.5

MAN

W 70-64

+13.5

IONA

L 48-74

−14.5

NIA

L 54-59

−7.5

MSM

L 68-78

−6.5

SHU

L 66-69

+7.5

FAIR

L 55-61

+4.5

MRST

L 86-88

+7.5

SIE

L 63-78

−6.5

NIA

L 56-65

−6.5

QUIN

L 60-75

+0.5

IONA

L 63-69

−1.5

MAN

L 65-69

−2.5

RID

W 72-66

+7.5

MSM

L 47-68

−13.5

MRMK

W 67-62

+13.5

QUIN

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−6.5

SBU

L 70-89

+22.5

MERC

W 58-55

−22.5

HPU

L 50-93

−9.5

UMES

W 60-57

−11.5

BING

W 75-66

+11.5

BUF

L 53-71

−15.5

SPU

L 57-69

−3.5

SIE

L 52-74

−5.5

W 70-43

−14.5

URI

L 45-62

−31.5

DUQ

L 59-103

+18.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+25.5

SHU

W 82-78

+18.5

MAN

W 70-64

−11.5

IONA

L 48-74

−19.5

NIA

L 54-59

−13.5

MSM

L 68-78

+10.5

SHU

L 66-69

−10.5

FAIR

L 55-61

−25.5

MRST

L 86-88

+44.5

SIE

L 63-78

+5.5

NIA

L 56-65

−8.5

QUIN

L 60-75

−6.5

IONA

L 63-69

−5.5

MAN

L 65-69

−8.5

RID

W 72-66

+6.5

MSM

L 47-68

−22.5

MRMK

W 67-62

−0.5

QUIN

L 63-67

−8.5

over 9under 21avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rider has the better starters

Position by position: Rider 1, Canisius 0, even 4

RiderBetterCanisius

G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44

RIDSmall

G V. Sigona TR7.5 pts · 1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 22

G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

Even

G M. Wilson TR4.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18

G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Winters TR1.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F P. Ryan TR6.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7

F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Efinda TR4.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

RiderBetterCanisius

RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2

Even

CAN defense321st of 366 · -8.3

RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2

Even

CAN offense358th of 366 · -14.0

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

CANSmall

Backcourt-3.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

RIDBig

Frontcourt-4.4 · 2 players

Bench-0.3 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestRID betterCAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rider

Guards

M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew

Forwards

H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew

Centers

S. Avegah SemeyNew

Canisius

Guards

V. Sigona20 min · TRM. Wilson13 min · TRD. Winters6 min · TRT. Augustine2 minC. FrancisNewW. FowlerNew

Forwards

P. Ryan23 min · TRC. Efinda15 min · TRN. Deer3 min · TRN. FoutsNewW. TaylorNewA. RiakNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RID62.6 #359

CAN62.2 #361

Points per possession

RID0.95 #355

CAN0.96 #349

Pace (possessions)

RID65.7 #323

CAN64.6 #353

Shooting

Effective FG%

RID42.8 #365

CAN46.3 #348

3-point %

RID27.6 #365

CAN33.3 #213

3-point attempt rate

RID27.5 #361

CAN39.5 #182

Free throw rate

RID30.1 #307

CAN31.4 #271

Possessions

Turnover rate

RID16.9 #197

CAN19.6 #341

Offensive rebound rate

RID32.6 #101

CAN29.3 #226

Assists per game

RID10.1 #356

CAN11.9 #293

Defense

Points allowed

RID76.8 #236

CAN71.4 #87

Points allowed per possession

RID1.17 #341

CAN1.10 #228

Opponent effective FG%

RID55.2 #335

CAN52.2 #225

Opponent 3-point %

RID38.0 #356

CAN33.0 #124

Turnovers forced

RID15.3 #266

CAN16.0 #222

Defensive rebound rate

RID67.2 #294

CAN70.2 #151

Steals per game

RID5.9 #247

CAN4.8 #342

Blocks per game

RID3.2 #188

CAN2.6 #292

RID		CAN
Scoring
62.6 #359	Points per game	62.2 #361
0.95 #355	Points per possession	0.96 #349
65.7 #323	Pace (possessions)	64.6 #353
Shooting
42.8 #365	Effective FG%	46.3 #348
27.6 #365	3-point %	33.3 #213
27.5 #361	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #182
30.1 #307	Free throw rate	31.4 #271
Possessions
16.9 #197	Turnover rate	19.6 #341
32.6 #101	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #226
10.1 #356	Assists per game	11.9 #293
Defense
76.8 #236	Points allowed	71.4 #87
1.17 #341	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #228
55.2 #335	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #225
38.0 #356	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #124
15.3 #266	Turnovers forced	16.0 #222
67.2 #294	Defensive rebound rate	70.2 #151
5.9 #247	Steals per game	4.8 #342
3.2 #188	Blocks per game	2.6 #292

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Siena61–76
L@ Iona58–80
Wvs Niagara67–62
Lvs Canisius66–72
L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

Canisius

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Quinnipiac63–67
Wvs Merrimack67–62
L@ Mount St Marys47–68
W@ Rider72–66
Lvs Manhattan65–69

A week or more of rest.

Rider Broncs at Canisius Golden Griffins

What could decide it: CAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Rider

Canisius

Rider has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rider

Canisius