Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Canisius Golden Griffins: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ETKoessler Athletic Center · at Canisius · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mount St Marys and Canisius
MSM	This season	CAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSM 71–67 · win probability MSM 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSM has more of the edges

MSM 4, CAN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; CAN 46.3 and allows 52.2

MSMBig

CAN offense vs MSM defense

Offense 358th of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings

MSMSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, CAN 1%. Transfers in: MSM 3, CAN 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MSMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, CAN 29.3%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, CAN 70.2%

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), CAN 64.6 (353rd). Faster games mean more points

CANSmall

Home court

CAN at home. This season: CAN 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

MSM has played the 291st-hardest schedule, CAN the 337th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, CAN 19.6%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, CAN 16.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, CAN 31.4. Allowed: MSM 37.3, CAN 35.2

Even

Three-pointers

MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; CAN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 42.6% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

MSM offense vs CAN defense

Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 321st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSM -4.3	—
Total	—	137.8	—
Projected score	—	MSM 71.1 · CAN 66.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSM -2.6	—
1H total	64.5	—
1H projected score	MSM 33.6 · CAN 30.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSM WWLWL	18-13	58%	11-7	—
CAN LWLWW	15-15	50%	7-7	—

Venue/role: MSM away; CAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSM OUUUU	10-21	32%	14-17
CAN UOUUU	9-21	30%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
CAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mount St Marys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	@ COPP	W74–60LU
Dec 15	@ CREI	No recent meeting

Canisius

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ DUQ	L59–103LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

MSM 7–2 CANMSM leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MSM has won the last 3 meetings · MSM 6-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	CAN 47 @ MSM 68	MSM -7.5	MSM W
Jan 17, 2025-26	MSM 78 @ CAN 68	CAN +3.5	MSM W
Feb 16, 2024-25	MSM 73 @ CAN 66	CAN +6.5	MSM W
Mar 12, 2023-24	CAN 77 vs MSM 61	MSM -3.5	CAN W
Mar 1, 2023-24	MSM 56 @ CAN 61	CAN -1.5	CAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mount St Marys

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-21

32% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-2132%

U U U U O U O O O U O O U U U U U O U U U U U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 5	@MRST	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 13	@L-MD	W 81-73	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 19	@DREX	L 67-75	+4.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 29	vsIONA	W 66-59	+2.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	@MRMK	L 65-75	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	@QUIN	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 9	vsSPU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 135
Jan 11	vsSIE	L 50-67	+2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 17	@CAN	W 78-68	-3.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 19	@NIA	W 68-58	-3.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	vsQUIN	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 24	vsRID	W 71-61	-9.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@SPU	L 58-66	+5.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 124
Feb 1	vsMAN	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsMRMK	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@IONA	W 83-76	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 159
Feb 13	@RID	W 65-55	-5.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 20	vsNIA	W 76-63	-7.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	vsCAN	W 68-47	-7.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	@SHU	L 69-77	+2.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 1	@FAIR	W 69-47	+4.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 7	vsSIE	L 58-63	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

MRST

L 56-64

+0.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+5.5

DREX

L 67-75

−3.5

IONA

W 66-59

+9.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−6.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−3.5

SPU

W 70-65

+6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−14.5

CAN

W 78-68

+6.5

NIA

W 68-58

+6.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−10.5

RID

W 71-61

+0.5

SPU

L 58-66

−2.5

MAN

W 72-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 70-87

−14.5

IONA

W 83-76

+10.5

RID

W 65-55

+4.5

NIA

W 76-63

+5.5

CAN

W 68-47

+13.5

SHU

L 69-77

−5.5

FAIR

W 69-47

+26.5

SIE

L 58-63

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

MRST

L 56-64

−16.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+2.5

DREX

L 67-75

+4.5

IONA

W 66-59

−28.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−1.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−1.5

SPU

W 70-65

−6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−22.5

CAN

W 78-68

+10.5

NIA

W 68-58

−5.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−9.5

RID

W 71-61

−7.5

SPU

L 58-66

−14.5

MAN

W 72-65

−10.5

MRMK

L 70-87

+22.5

IONA

W 83-76

+17.5

RID

W 65-55

−17.5

NIA

W 76-63

+8.5

CAN

W 68-47

−22.5

SHU

L 69-77

−4.5

FAIR

W 69-47

−29.5

SIE

L 58-63

−14.5

over 10under 21avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Canisius

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-21

30% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2130%

U O U U U O U U U U U O O O U U U O U U O O U U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DAY	L 48-88	+25.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	@SBU	L 70-89	+21.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMERC	W 58-55	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 17	@HPU	L 50-93	+23.5	L −19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 21	vsUMES	W 60-57	-3.5	L −0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 23	vsBING	W 75-66	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 141
Nov 29	vsBUF	L 53-71	+9.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 5	@SPU	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 126
Dec 7	@SIE	L 52-74	+17.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 13	@ME	W 70-43	+6.5	W +33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 16	@URI	L 45-62	+21.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	@DUQ	L 59-103	+19.5	L −24.5	143.5	O 162
Jan 2	vsFAIR	W 85-81	+6.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	vsSHU	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 160
Jan 9	@MAN	W 70-64	+7.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	@IONA	L 48-74	+11.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	vsNIA	L 54-59	-2.5	L −7.5	126.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsMSM	L 68-78	+3.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 22	@SHU	L 66-69	+10.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 24	@FAIR	L 55-61	+10.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsMRST	L 86-88	+9.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 174
Feb 1	vsSIE	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 3	@NIA	L 56-65	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	U 121
Feb 5	@QUIN	L 60-75	+15.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsIONA	L 63-69	+4.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 132
Feb 15	vsMAN	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 20	@RID	W 72-66	+1.5	W +7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	@MSM	L 47-68	+7.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	vsMRMK	W 67-62	+8.5	W +13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	vsQUIN	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−14.5

SBU

L 70-89

+2.5

MERC

W 58-55

+4.5

HPU

L 50-93

−19.5

UMES

W 60-57

−0.5

BING

W 75-66

+6.5

BUF

L 53-71

−8.5

SPU

L 57-69

−2.5

SIE

L 52-74

−4.5

W 70-43

+33.5

URI

L 45-62

+4.5

DUQ

L 59-103

−24.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+10.5

SHU

W 82-78

+9.5

MAN

W 70-64

+13.5

IONA

L 48-74

−14.5

NIA

L 54-59

−7.5

MSM

L 68-78

−6.5

SHU

L 66-69

+7.5

FAIR

L 55-61

+4.5

MRST

L 86-88

+7.5

SIE

L 63-78

−6.5

NIA

L 56-65

−6.5

QUIN

L 60-75

+0.5

IONA

L 63-69

−1.5

MAN

L 65-69

−2.5

RID

W 72-66

+7.5

MSM

L 47-68

−13.5

MRMK

W 67-62

+13.5

QUIN

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−6.5

SBU

L 70-89

+22.5

MERC

W 58-55

−22.5

HPU

L 50-93

−9.5

UMES

W 60-57

−11.5

BING

W 75-66

+11.5

BUF

L 53-71

−15.5

SPU

L 57-69

−3.5

SIE

L 52-74

−5.5

W 70-43

−14.5

URI

L 45-62

−31.5

DUQ

L 59-103

+18.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+25.5

SHU

W 82-78

+18.5

MAN

W 70-64

−11.5

IONA

L 48-74

−19.5

NIA

L 54-59

−13.5

MSM

L 68-78

+10.5

SHU

L 66-69

−10.5

FAIR

L 55-61

−25.5

MRST

L 86-88

+44.5

SIE

L 63-78

+5.5

NIA

L 56-65

−8.5

QUIN

L 60-75

−6.5

IONA

L 63-69

−5.5

MAN

L 65-69

−8.5

RID

W 72-66

+6.5

MSM

L 47-68

−22.5

MRMK

W 67-62

−0.5

QUIN

L 63-67

−8.5

over 9under 21avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mount St Marys has the better starters

Position by position: Mount St Marys 3, Canisius 0, even 2

Mount St MarysBetterCanisius

G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55

MSMSmall

G V. Sigona TR7.5 pts · 1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 22

G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49

MSMSmall

G M. Wilson TR4.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18

G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2

No call

G D. Winters TR1.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13

Even

F P. Ryan TR6.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7

F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43

MSMBig

F C. Efinda TR4.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

Mount St MarysBetterCanisius

MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5

Even

CAN defense321st of 366 · -8.3

MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8

MSMBig

CAN offense358th of 366 · -14.0

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

CANSmall

Backcourt-3.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

MSMBig

Frontcourt-4.4 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

CANSmall

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestMSM betterCAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mount St Marys

Guards

A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR

Forwards

W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew

Canisius

Guards

V. Sigona20 min · TRM. Wilson13 min · TRD. Winters6 min · TRT. Augustine2 minC. FrancisNewW. FowlerNew

Forwards

P. Ryan23 min · TRC. Efinda15 min · TRN. Deer3 min · TRN. FoutsNewW. TaylorNewA. RiakNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MSM67.9 #315

CAN62.2 #361

Points per possession

MSM1.00 #327

CAN0.96 #349

Pace (possessions)

MSM68.0 #231

CAN64.6 #353

Shooting

Effective FG%

MSM50.6 #208

CAN46.3 #348

3-point %

MSM32.7 #244

CAN33.3 #213

3-point attempt rate

MSM42.6 #125

CAN39.5 #182

Free throw rate

MSM33.3 #230

CAN31.4 #271

Possessions

Turnover rate

MSM22.4 #364

CAN19.6 #341

Offensive rebound rate

MSM32.3 #115

CAN29.3 #226

Assists per game

MSM13.2 #196

CAN11.9 #293

Defense

Points allowed

MSM71.0 #74

CAN71.4 #87

Points allowed per possession

MSM1.05 #84

CAN1.10 #228

Opponent effective FG%

MSM47.2 #23

CAN52.2 #225

Opponent 3-point %

MSM32.3 #81

CAN33.0 #124

Turnovers forced

MSM15.3 #262

CAN16.0 #222

Defensive rebound rate

MSM70.9 #114

CAN70.2 #151

Steals per game

MSM5.8 #261

CAN4.8 #342

Blocks per game

MSM2.9 #248

CAN2.6 #292

MSM		CAN
Scoring
67.9 #315	Points per game	62.2 #361
1.00 #327	Points per possession	0.96 #349
68.0 #231	Pace (possessions)	64.6 #353
Shooting
50.6 #208	Effective FG%	46.3 #348
32.7 #244	3-point %	33.3 #213
42.6 #125	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #182
33.3 #230	Free throw rate	31.4 #271
Possessions
22.4 #364	Turnover rate	19.6 #341
32.3 #115	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #226
13.2 #196	Assists per game	11.9 #293
Defense
71.0 #74	Points allowed	71.4 #87
1.05 #84	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #228
47.2 #23	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #225
32.3 #81	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #124
15.3 #262	Turnovers forced	16.0 #222
70.9 #114	Defensive rebound rate	70.2 #151
5.8 #261	Steals per game	4.8 #342
2.9 #248	Blocks per game	2.6 #292

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena58–63
W@ Fairfield69–47
L@ Sacred Heart69–77
Wvs Canisius68–47
Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Canisius

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Quinnipiac63–67
Wvs Merrimack67–62
L@ Mount St Marys47–68
W@ Rider72–66
Lvs Manhattan65–69

A week or more of rest.

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Canisius Golden Griffins

What could decide it: MSM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mount St Marys

Canisius

Mount St Marys has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mount St Marys

Canisius