1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 4
  3. WAG @ HPU
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 4

Wagner Seahawks at High Point Panthers

Qubein Center · at High Point
#354WAGWagner
@
#90HPUHigh Point
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WAGThis seasonHPU
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HPU 86–61 · win probability HPU 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HPU has more of the edges

WAG 1, HPU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HPUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WAG 18.6%, HPU 12.8%. Forced: WAG 14.9%, HPU 21.3%
HPUBig
WAG offense vs HPU defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 127th, on the model’s ratings
HPUBig
HPU offense vs WAG defense
Offense 64th of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
HPUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WAG 32.4, HPU 40.8. Allowed: WAG 40.8, HPU 35.5
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: WAG plays 66.4 a game (299th fastest), HPU 71.7 (47th). Faster games mean more points
HPUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4; HPU 54.5 and allows 50.5
HPUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAG 0%, HPU 36%. Transfers in: WAG 8, HPU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
WAG has played the 349th-hardest schedule, HPU the 288th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WAGSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAG 32.8%, HPU 31.8%. Defensive: WAG 70.5%, HPU 68.9%
HPUSmall
Home court
HPU at home. This season: HPU 0-0 at home, WAG 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%; HPU hits 34.2% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 36.1% and 43.6% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HPU -25.5—
Total—147.3—
Projected score—WAG 60.9 · HPU 86.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHPU -15.0—
1H total68.9—
1H projected scoreWAG 26.9 · HPU 42—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

High Point has the better starters

Position by position: Wagner 0, High Point 3, even 2
WagnerBetterHigh Point
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 8
HPUBig
G J. Rivera-Torres TR15.9 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 91
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
HPUBig
G C. Williams TR12.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 60
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Brown TR10.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.6 ast Score 64
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
HPUBig
F I. Garrett TR13.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F F. Sherman TR10.8 pts · 8.6 reb · 1 ast Score 85
WagnerBetterHigh Point
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
HPUBig
HPU defense127th of 366 · -2.3
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
HPUBig
HPU offense64th of 366 · +2.2
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
HPUBig
Backcourt+3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
HPUBig
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
HPUBig
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWAG betterHPU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wagner
Guards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
High Point
Guards
J. Rivera-Torres36 min · TRC. Williams32 min · TRC. Brown27 min · TRC. Martinez22 minL. Campbell15 min · TRS. McDermott2 min · TR
Forwards
I. Garrett29 min · TRF. Sherman26 min · TRF. Brankovic24 min · TRC. Fletcher22 minB. Hausen21 minC. Miller7 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WAGHPU
Scoring
69.6 #292Points per game86.4 #9
1.05 #250Points per possession1.20 #12
66.4 #299Pace (possessions)71.7 #47
Shooting
49.6 #262Effective FG%54.5 #51
36.6 #363-point %34.2 #161
36.1 #2493-point attempt rate43.6 #98
32.4 #252Free throw rate40.8 #50
Possessions
18.6 #303Turnover rate12.8 #5
32.8 #96Offensive rebound rate31.8 #131
11.9 #289Assists per game15.4 #74
Defense
72.7 #126Points allowed72.8 #128
1.09 #208Points allowed per possession1.01 #38
50.4 #123Opponent effective FG%50.5 #126
34.3 #202Opponent 3-point %32.6 #97
14.9 #295Turnovers forced21.3 #8
70.5 #139Defensive rebound rate68.9 #207
5.2 #321Steals per game10.1 #2
2.3 #320Blocks per game3.6 #119
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wagner

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island56–64
  • W@ C Connecticut70–60
  • Wvs Chicago St80–61
  • Wvs New Haven65–62
  • W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves65–56

A week or more of rest.

High Point

28-5 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas88–94
  • Wvs Wisconsin83–82
  • Wvs Winthrop91–76
  • Wvs UNC Asheville75–71
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb81–59

A week or more of rest.