1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. RID @ NIA
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Rider Broncs at Niagara Purple Eagles

Gallagher Center · at Niagara · Conference game
#347RIDRider
@
#346NIANiagara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RIDThis seasonNIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NIA 71–67 · win probability NIA 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 137.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NIA has more of the edges

RID 1, NIA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, NIA the 334th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NIABig
Three-pointers
RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 27.5% and 40.5% of their shots
RIDBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, NIA 24.8%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, NIA 67.1%
NIABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8
NIASmall
RID offense vs NIA defense
Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
NIASmall
Home court
NIA at home. This season: NIA 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away
Even
NIA offense vs RID defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: RID 30.1, NIA 26.6. Allowed: RID 32.5, NIA 33.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, NIA 15%. Transfers in: RID 6, NIA 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), NIA 63.4 (364th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, NIA 18.9%. Forced: RID 15.3%, NIA 16.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NIA -4.6—
Total—137.8—
Projected score—RID 66.6 · NIA 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNIA -2.6—
1H total64.5—
1H projected scoreRID 31 · NIA 33.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Rider has the better starters

Position by position: Rider 1, Niagara 0, even 4
RiderBetterNiagara
G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44
RIDSmall
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
Even
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
RiderBetterNiagara
RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2
NIASmall
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2
Even
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
RIDBig
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.3 · 1 player
RIDSmall
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestRID betterNIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rider
Guards
M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew
Forwards
H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew
Centers
S. Avegah SemeyNew
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RIDNIA
Scoring
62.6 #359Points per game63.3 #355
0.95 #355Points per possession1.00 #330
65.7 #323Pace (possessions)63.4 #364
Shooting
42.8 #365Effective FG%50.5 #214
27.6 #3653-point %33.7 #188
27.5 #3613-point attempt rate40.5 #159
30.1 #307Free throw rate26.6 #353
Possessions
16.9 #197Turnover rate18.9 #318
32.6 #101Offensive rebound rate24.8 #344
10.1 #356Assists per game13.8 #162
Defense
76.8 #236Points allowed71.7 #98
1.17 #341Points allowed per possession1.13 #300
55.2 #335Opponent effective FG%52.8 #260
38.0 #356Opponent 3-point %35.3 #268
15.3 #266Turnovers forced16.6 #177
67.2 #294Defensive rebound rate67.1 #297
5.9 #247Steals per game5.6 #284
3.2 #188Blocks per game2.8 #254
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Siena61–76
  • L@ Iona58–80
  • Wvs Niagara67–62
  • Lvs Canisius66–72
  • L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.