Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Tulane Green Wave: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · at Tulane

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Louisiana and Tulane
UL	This season	TULN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TULN 77–68 · win probability TULN 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TULN has more of the edges

UL 1, TULN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TULNBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UL 28.7, TULN 43.5. Allowed: UL 45.8, TULN 38.1

TULNBig

UL offense vs TULN defense

Offense 292nd of 366 against a defense 180th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UL has played the 226th-hardest schedule, TULN the 115th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ULSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UL 28.4%, TULN 22.8%. Defensive: UL 67.7%, TULN 64.2%

TULNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UL 47.1 and allows 52.6; TULN 49.4 and allows 50.7

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UL plays 64.1 a game (359th fastest), TULN 68.5 (205th). Faster games mean more points

TULNSmall

Home court

TULN at home. This season: TULN 0-0 at home, UL 0-0 away

Even

TULN offense vs UL defense

Offense 114th of 366 against a defense 157th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UL 59%, TULN 40%. Transfers in: UL 3, TULN 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UL 16.8%, TULN 15.4%. Forced: UL 18.3%, TULN 17.1%

Even

Three-pointers

UL hits 33.6% and allows 35.6%; TULN hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 40.5% and 45.0% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TULN -9.1	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	UL 67.7 · TULN 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TULN -5.3	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	UL 31.2 · TULN 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WLLWL	15-18	45%	6-10	—
TULN LLWWL	15-17	47%	7-10	—

Venue/role: UL away; TULN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UOUOO	15-18	45%	11-22
TULN UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TULN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ ORU	No recent meeting

Tulane

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs URI	W78–75LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UL 0–1 TULNTULN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UL 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	TULN 66 @ UL 62	UL +5.5	UL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana

33 games played

Straight up

11-22

33% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2233%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1845%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U O O O U U O O U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117
Dec 31	vsUSA	L 58-63	+3.5	L −1.5	127.5	U 121
Jan 3	vsUSM	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsULM	W 85-79	-7.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsTROY	L 70-90	+9.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 14	@TXST	L 54-59	+8.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	@USA	W 59-56	+9.5	W +12.5	129.5	U 115
Jan 22	@APP	L 58-72	+9.5	L −4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 29	vsGAST	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsGASO	W 69-60	+2.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	@JMU	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsCMU	W 85-80	-2.5	W +2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 12	vsCCU	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 16	@ODU	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 19	vsARST	L 62-79	+8.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 141
Feb 21	vsTXST	W 67-54	+3.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 24	@TROY	L 59-78	+11.5	L −7.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 27	@ARST	L 58-81	+13.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsGAST	W 84-75	+1.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsJMU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

USA

L 58-63

−1.5

USM

L 67-74

−3.5

ULM

W 85-79

−1.5

TROY

L 70-90

−10.5

TXST

L 54-59

+3.5

USA

W 59-56

+12.5

APP

L 58-72

−4.5

GAST

W 82-72

+11.5

GASO

W 69-60

+11.5

JMU

W 64-61

+12.5

CMU

W 85-80

+2.5

CCU

L 65-69

−2.5

ODU

L 72-83

−4.5

ARST

L 62-79

−8.5

TXST

W 67-54

+16.5

TROY

L 59-78

−7.5

ARST

L 58-81

−9.5

GAST

W 84-75

+10.5

JMU

L 72-87

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

USA

L 58-63

−6.5

USM

L 67-74

+11.5

ULM

W 85-79

+24.5

TROY

L 70-90

+23.5

TXST

L 54-59

−20.5

USA

W 59-56

−14.5

APP

L 58-72

+5.5

GAST

W 82-72

+24.5

GASO

W 69-60

−15.5

JMU

W 64-61

−7.5

CMU

W 85-80

+30.5

CCU

L 65-69

+1.5

ODU

L 72-83

+19.5

ARST

L 62-79

−3.5

TXST

W 67-54

−13.5

TROY

L 59-78

+2.5

ARST

L 58-81

−7.5

GAST

W 84-75

+24.5

JMU

L 72-87

+24.5

over 15under 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulane

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W W W L L W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1941%

O O U U O O O U U O U U O U U U U U U O O U U U O O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 28	vsNICH	W 82-72	-8.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	vsGRAM	W 65-63	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 128
Dec 6	vsAKR	L 71-88	+6.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 159
Dec 13	vsUCSD	L 67-93	+5.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLT	W 61-53	-4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 20	vsPRST	W 63-61	-2.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 124
Dec 31	@ECU	W 79-70	-1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 4	vsFAU	W 69-66	+3.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 10	@UTSA	W 85-52	-7.5	W +25.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsUAB	L 69-82	+1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 18	vsUNT	L 63-71	-1.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	@FAU	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 153
Jan 23	@CLT	L 70-73	+2.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 143
Jan 28	vsUSF	L 83-97	+8.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 1	@MEM	W 78-76	+8.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 8	vsWICH	L 61-75	+5.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsTEM	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 143
Feb 15	@UAB	W 55-54	+6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 109
Feb 19	@UNT	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsRICE	W 81-75	-4.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsTLSA	L 56-90	+5.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 1	@USF	L 62-90	+15.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 5	@TEM	L 60-89	+4.5	L −24.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 8	vsMEM	L 95-96	+2.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsMEM	W 81-69	+4.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 12	vsCLT	L 60-74	+1.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

NICH

W 82-72

+1.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−9.5

AKR

L 71-88

−10.5

UCSD

L 67-93

−20.5

W 61-53

+3.5

PRST

W 63-61

−0.5

ECU

W 79-70

+7.5

FAU

W 69-66

+6.5

UTSA

W 85-52

+25.5

UAB

L 69-82

−11.5

UNT

L 63-71

−9.5

FAU

L 74-79

+5.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

−5.5

MEM

W 78-76

+10.5

WICH

L 61-75

−8.5

TEM

W 77-66

+9.5

UAB

W 55-54

+7.5

UNT

W 77-71

+12.5

RICE

W 81-75

+1.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−28.5

USF

L 62-90

−12.5

TEM

L 60-89

−24.5

MEM

L 95-96

+1.5

MEM

W 81-69

+16.5

CLT

L 60-74

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

NICH

W 82-72

+5.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−20.5

AKR

L 71-88

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-93

+10.5

W 61-53

−26.5

PRST

W 63-61

−21.5

ECU

W 79-70

+3.5

FAU

W 69-66

−23.5

UTSA

W 85-52

−10.5

UAB

L 69-82

−2.5

UNT

L 63-71

−3.5

FAU

L 74-79

−2.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

+21.5

MEM

W 78-76

+2.5

WICH

L 61-75

−12.5

TEM

W 77-66

−1.5

UAB

W 55-54

−43.5

UNT

W 77-71

+10.5

RICE

W 81-75

+8.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−10.5

USF

L 62-90

−3.5

TEM

L 60-89

+4.5

MEM

L 95-96

+36.5

MEM

W 81-69

−1.5

CLT

L 60-74

−10.5

over 13under 19avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tulane has the better starters

Position by position: Louisiana 0, Tulane 2, even 3

LouisianaBetterTulane

G D. Lavergne9.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 40

TULNSmall

G K. Lewis TR18.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.1 ast Score 65

G M. Cooper5.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast Score 1

TULNBig

G T. Nadeau TR13.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

G T. Middleton TR12.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3 ast Score 49

Even

F T. Ringgold9.6 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 57

G J. Keller17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Schwieger10.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 32

F J. Harris TR9.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

Even

F J. Chappelle TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

LouisianaBetterTulane

UL offense292nd of 366 · -9.0

TULNSmall

TULN defense180th of 366 · -4.1

UL defense157th of 366 · -3.4

Even

TULN offense114th of 366 · -2.4

Backcourt-6.4 · 4 players

TULNBig

Backcourt+1.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-2.2 · 3 players

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUL betterTULN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Louisiana

Guards

D. Lavergne30 minM. Cooper30 minT. Middleton30 min · TRJ. Keller30 minL. Myers2 minD. WareNew

Forwards

J. Harris27 min · TRD. Pounds18 min · TRT. Jones17 minJ. Evans11 minR. OlajuwonNewT. DuncanNew

Tulane

Guards

K. Lewis36 min · TRT. Nadeau27 min · TRK. Greene15 minJ. Moore12 minR. Moore2 minR. BlountNew

Forwards

T. Ringgold25 minC. Schwieger25 minJ. Chappelle24 min · TRJ. Dumont2 min · TRL. Cronin2 min

Centers

D. SalaneNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UL63.7 #354

TULN72.0 #239

Points per possession

UL0.99 #333

TULN1.05 #245

Pace (possessions)

UL64.1 #359

TULN68.5 #205

Shooting

Effective FG%

UL47.1 #334

TULN49.4 #275

3-point %

UL33.6 #189

TULN32.0 #279

3-point attempt rate

UL40.5 #160

TULN45.0 #68

Free throw rate

UL28.7 #334

TULN43.5 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

UL16.8 #185

TULN15.4 #99

Offensive rebound rate

UL28.4 #251

TULN22.8 #352

Assists per game

UL10.3 #354

TULN12.6 #244

Defense

Points allowed

UL70.7 #69

TULN75.7 #208

Points allowed per possession

UL1.10 #227

TULN1.11 #229

Opponent effective FG%

UL52.6 #247

TULN50.7 #140

Opponent 3-point %

UL35.6 #286

TULN34.5 #216

Turnovers forced

UL18.3 #85

TULN17.1 #139

Defensive rebound rate

UL67.7 #272

TULN64.2 #352

Steals per game

UL5.8 #257

TULN7.5 #85

Blocks per game

UL3.5 #141

TULN4.5 #38

UL		TULN
Scoring
63.7 #354	Points per game	72.0 #239
0.99 #333	Points per possession	1.05 #245
64.1 #359	Pace (possessions)	68.5 #205
Shooting
47.1 #334	Effective FG%	49.4 #275
33.6 #189	3-point %	32.0 #279
40.5 #160	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #68
28.7 #334	Free throw rate	43.5 #14
Possessions
16.8 #185	Turnover rate	15.4 #99
28.4 #251	Offensive rebound rate	22.8 #352
10.3 #354	Assists per game	12.6 #244
Defense
70.7 #69	Points allowed	75.7 #208
1.10 #227	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #229
52.6 #247	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #140
35.6 #286	Opponent 3-point %	34.5 #216
18.3 #85	Turnovers forced	17.1 #139
67.7 #272	Defensive rebound rate	64.2 #352
5.8 #257	Steals per game	7.5 #85
3.5 #141	Blocks per game	4.5 #38

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisiana

11-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs James Madison72–87
Wvs Georgia St84–75
L@ Arkansas St58–81
L@ Troy59–78
Wvs Texas St67–54

A week or more of rest.

Tulane

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Charlotte60–74
Wvs Memphis81–69
Lvs Memphis95–96
L@ Temple60–89
L@ South Florida62–90

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Tulane Green Wave

What could decide it: TULN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana

Tulane

Tulane has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Louisiana

Tulane