1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. NAVY @ AF
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons

Clune Arena · at Air Force
#199NAVYNavy
@
#220AFAir Force
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NAVYThis seasonAF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AF 70–68 · win probability AF 59%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 138.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

NAVY 6, AF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NAVYBig
Three-pointers
NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%; AF hits 30.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 33.1% and 41.8% of their shots
NAVYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3; AF 48.9 and allows 56.4
NAVYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NAVY 31.9%, AF 21.4%. Defensive: NAVY 72.6%, AF 68.7%
Context
Schedule so far
NAVY has played the 311th-hardest schedule, AF the 119th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NAVYBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NAVY 16.8%, AF 21.9%. Forced: NAVY 18.3%, AF 15.1%
NAVYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NAVY 38.8, AF 35.1. Allowed: NAVY 26.0, AF 36.6
NAVYBig
AF offense vs NAVY defense
Offense 290th of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings
AFBig
NAVY offense vs AF defense
Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 149th, on the model’s ratings
AFSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NAVY 46%, AF 100%. Transfers in: NAVY 0, AF 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
AFSmall
Home court
AF at home. This season: AF 0-0 at home, NAVY 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NAVY plays 66.0 a game (316th fastest), AF 67.4 (259th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AF -2.5—
Total—138.1—
Projected score—NAVY 67.8 · AF 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAF -1.4—
1H total64.7—
1H projected scoreNAVY 31.7 · AF 33—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Navy 1, Air Force 1, even 3
NavyBetterAir Force
G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
AFBig
G K. Sanders12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 77
G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12
Even
G E. Greenberg6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 18
G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41
NAVYSmall
F L. Hobin11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Robinson7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 39
G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Walker10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 82
NavyBetterAir Force
NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2
AFSmall
AF defense149th of 366 · -3.3
NAVY defense145th of 366 · -3.1
NAVYBig
AF offense290th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players
AFBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-1.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
NAVYBig
Bench-7.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNAVY betterAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Navy
Guards
J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min
Forwards
C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew
Centers
C. CraneNew
Air Force
Guards
K. Sanders30 minE. Greenberg27 minA. Patterson14 minJ. Hinds12 minE. Taite2 minT. KeeneNew
Forwards
L. Hobin29 minE. Robinson28 minC. Walker22 minR. Dering14 minK. Gilles13 minB. Martin5 min
Centers
W. Celichowski21 minM. CaslaruNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NAVYAF
Scoring
74.1 #194Points per game61.5 #362
1.12 #97Points per possession0.91 #363
66.0 #316Pace (possessions)67.4 #259
Shooting
53.1 #100Effective FG%48.9 #292
35.9 #643-point %30.6 #332
33.1 #3143-point attempt rate41.8 #139
38.8 #82Free throw rate35.1 #174
Possessions
16.8 #190Turnover rate21.9 #362
31.9 #126Offensive rebound rate21.4 #360
15.8 #52Assists per game12.2 #273
Defense
65.6 #10Points allowed79.9 #316
1.00 #23Points allowed per possession1.19 #352
48.3 #42Opponent effective FG%56.4 #350
30.0 #7Opponent 3-point %37.6 #352
18.3 #84Turnovers forced15.1 #280
72.6 #49Defensive rebound rate68.7 #215
7.5 #84Steals per game5.6 #281
3.3 #185Blocks per game2.4 #316
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wake Forest72–82
  • Lvs Boston U72–73
  • Wvs Bucknell74–69
  • Wvs Colgate85–69
  • W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.

Air Force

3-29 in 2025-26 overall · 0-21 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada45–80
  • L@ Nevada59–74
  • Lvs Grand Canyon60–86
  • L@ Wyoming62–66
  • Lvs San José St80–86

A week or more of rest.