Kansas State Wildcats at Seton Hall Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 7:00 PM ETPrudential Center · at Seton Hall

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kansas St and Seton Hall
KSU	This season	HALL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HALL 77–70 · win probability HALL 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HALL has more of the edges

KSU 1, HALL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: KSU plays 73.8 a game (11th fastest), HALL 66.5 (296th). Faster games mean more points

HALLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KSU 29.2%, HALL 35.6%. Defensive: KSU 66.0%, HALL 68.1%

KSUSmall

Three-pointers

KSU hits 36.4% and allows 33.7%; HALL hits 30.5% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 40.9% and 26.8% of their shots

HALLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KSU 17.4%, HALL 16.6%. Forced: KSU 17.1%, HALL 21.5%

HALLSmall

Home court

HALL at home. This season: HALL 0-0 at home, KSU 0-0 away

HALLSmall

KSU offense vs HALL defense

Offense 74th of 366 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: KSU 26.9, HALL 35.3. Allowed: KSU 35.2, HALL 42.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KSU 7%, HALL 18%. Transfers in: KSU 9, HALL 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

KSU has played the 43rd-hardest schedule, HALL the 55th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: KSU 53.3 and allows 52.5; HALL 47.6 and allows 47.3

Even

HALL offense vs KSU defense

Offense 97th of 366 against a defense 97th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HALL -6.7	—
Total	—	147.1	—
Projected score	—	KSU 70.2 · HALL 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HALL -3.8	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	KSU 32.5 · HALL 36.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LLWLL	12-20	38%	5-6	—
HALL WWLWL	19-14	58%	6-11	—

Venue/role: KSU away; HALL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UUUOO	16-16	50%	12-20
HALL OOUUO	13-20	39%	21-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
HALL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs IUIN	No recent meeting
Dec 11	vs WICH	L65–84LU

Seton Hall

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs NJIT	W67–56LO
Dec 12	@ RUTG	W81–59WO
Dec 15	vs UNCG	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KSU 0–1 HALLHALL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · KSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	HALL 78 @ KSU 67	KSU -2.5	HALL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas St

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L L L L W W W W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

W L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O O O O U U U U U O O U O O U U U U U U O O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 20	vsMSST	W 98-77	+2.5	W +23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsNEB	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	@IU	L 69-86	+10.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsBGSU	L 66-82	-12.5	L −28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsHALL	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 8	vsMVSU	W 108-49	-38.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 13	@CREI	W 83-76	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsSDAK	W 106-76	-21.5	W +8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 28	vsULM	W 94-85	-32.5	L −23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBYU	L 73-83	+7.5	L −2.5	174.5	U 156
Jan 7	@ARIZ	L 76-101	+17.5	L −7.5	171.5	O 177
Jan 10	@ASU	L 84-87	+1.5	L −1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	vsUCF	L 73-82	-2.5	L −11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	@OKST	L 83-84	+2.5	W +1.5	175.5	U 167
Jan 20	vsUTAH	W 81-78	-10.5	L −7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	vsKU	L 62-86	+4.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 27	@WVU	L 54-59	+7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 113
Feb 1	vsISU	L 61-95	+12.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	@TCU	L 82-84	+9.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 166
Feb 11	vsCIN	L 62-91	+2.5	L −26.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 14	@HOU	L 64-78	+22.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 17	vsBAY	W 90-74	+3.5	W +19.5	159.5	O 164
Feb 21	@TTU	L 72-100	+12.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 172
Feb 25	@COLO	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 149
Feb 28	vsTCU	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsWVU	W 65-63	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 7	@KU	L 85-104	+17.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 10	vsBYU	L 91-105	+11.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 196

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

MSST

W 98-77

+23.5

NEB

L 85-86

+0.5

L 69-86

−6.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−28.5

HALL

L 67-78

−13.5

MVSU

W 108-49

+20.5

CREI

W 83-76

+11.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+8.5

ULM

W 94-85

−23.5

BYU

L 73-83

−2.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

−7.5

ASU

L 84-87

−1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−11.5

OKST

L 83-84

+1.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−7.5

L 62-86

−19.5

WVU

L 54-59

+2.5

ISU

L 61-95

−21.5

TCU

L 82-84

+7.5

CIN

L 62-91

−26.5

HOU

L 64-78

+8.5

BAY

W 90-74

+19.5

TTU

L 72-100

−15.5

COLO

L 70-79

−3.5

TCU

L 68-77

−5.5

WVU

W 65-63

+5.5

L 85-104

−1.5

BYU

L 91-105

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

MSST

W 98-77

+10.5

NEB

L 85-86

+2.5

L 69-86

−9.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−11.5

HALL

L 67-78

−3.5

MVSU

W 108-49

−3.5

CREI

W 83-76

−0.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+5.5

ULM

W 94-85

+9.5

BYU

L 73-83

−18.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

+5.5

ASU

L 84-87

+1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−15.5

OKST

L 83-84

−8.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−9.5

L 62-86

−10.5

WVU

L 54-59

−33.5

ISU

L 61-95

−0.5

TCU

L 82-84

+10.5

CIN

L 62-91

+5.5

HOU

L 64-78

−2.5

BAY

W 90-74

+4.5

TTU

L 72-100

+13.5

COLO

L 70-79

−14.5

TCU

L 68-77

−14.5

WVU

W 65-63

−15.5

L 85-104

+31.5

BYU

L 91-105

+27.5

over 16under 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Seton Hall

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

W L W L L W W W L W W W L W L W W L W L W L L W W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U O U U O O U O U O U U O U O O U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSPU	W 77-50	-13.5	W +13.5	129.5	U 127
Nov 7	vsWAG	W 68-61	-21.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 129
Nov 10	vsFAIR	W 82-59	-14.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 13	vsMONM	W 70-58	-15.5	L −3.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsNHVN	W 68-45	-25.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 113
Nov 24	vsNCSU	W 85-74	+7.5	W +18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsUSC	L 81-83	+6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsWSU	W 75-61	-8.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 3	vsCCSU	W 77-61	-18.5	L −2.5	128.5	O 138
Dec 6	@KSU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 13	vsRUTG	W 81-59	-13.5	W +8.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 19	@PROV	W 72-67	+1.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 139
Dec 23	vsVILL	L 56-64	-1.5	L −9.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 30	@MARQ	W 79-73	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 4	vsCREI	W 56-54	-3.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 110
Jan 10	@GTWN	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 13	vsCONN	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 133
Jan 17	vsBTLR	L 66-77	-6.5	L −17.5	144.5	U 143
Jan 20	@SJU	L 60-65	+11.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 24	@DEP	L 60-67	-2.5	L −9.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 28	vsXAV	W 86-68	-5.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsMARQ	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 4	@VILL	L 60-72	+5.5	L −6.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 7	@CREI	L 68-69	+1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 11	vsPROV	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 15	@BTLR	W 63-56	-5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 119
Feb 18	vsDEP	L 57-69	-7.5	L −19.5	129.5	U 126
Feb 21	vsGTWN	W 51-47	-6.5	L −2.5	136.5	U 98
Feb 28	@CONN	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	130.5	O 138
Mar 3	@XAV	W 77-68	-1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 6	vsSJU	L 65-72	+5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 12	vsCREI	W 72-61	-2.5	W +8.5	136.5	U 133
Mar 13	@SJU	L 68-78	+8.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SPU

W 77-50

+13.5

WAG

W 68-61

−14.5

FAIR

W 82-59

+8.5

MONM

W 70-58

−3.5

NHVN

W 68-45

−2.5

NCSU

W 85-74

+18.5

USC

L 81-83

+4.5

WSU

W 75-61

+5.5

CCSU

W 77-61

−2.5

KSU

W 78-67

+13.5

RUTG

W 81-59

+8.5

PROV

W 72-67

+6.5

VILL

L 56-64

−9.5

MARQ

W 79-73

+7.5

CREI

W 56-54

−1.5

GTWN

W 76-67

+7.5

CONN

L 64-69

+1.5

BTLR

L 66-77

−17.5

SJU

L 60-65

+6.5

DEP

L 60-67

−9.5

XAV

W 86-68

+12.5

MARQ

W 69-64

−1.5

VILL

L 60-72

−6.5

CREI

L 68-69

+0.5

PROV

W 87-80

+2.5

BTLR

W 63-56

+1.5

DEP

L 57-69

−19.5

GTWN

W 51-47

−2.5

CONN

L 67-71

+8.5

XAV

W 77-68

+7.5

SJU

L 65-72

−1.5

CREI

W 72-61

+8.5

SJU

L 68-78

−1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SPU

W 77-50

−2.5

WAG

W 68-61

−5.5

FAIR

W 82-59

+3.5

MONM

W 70-58

−7.5

NHVN

W 68-45

−16.5

NCSU

W 85-74

+15.5

USC

L 81-83

+18.5

WSU

W 75-61

−11.5

CCSU

W 77-61

+9.5

KSU

W 78-67

−3.5

RUTG

W 81-59

+3.5

PROV

W 72-67

−13.5

VILL

L 56-64

−15.5

MARQ

W 79-73

+6.5

CREI

W 56-54

−33.5

GTWN

W 76-67

+5.5

CONN

L 64-69

+0.5

BTLR

L 66-77

−1.5

SJU

L 60-65

−20.5

DEP

L 60-67

−8.5

XAV

W 86-68

+8.5

MARQ

W 69-64

−10.5

VILL

L 60-72

−2.5

CREI

L 68-69

−3.5

PROV

W 87-80

+16.5

BTLR

W 63-56

−19.5

DEP

L 57-69

−3.5

GTWN

W 51-47

−38.5

CONN

L 67-71

+7.5

XAV

W 77-68

+0.5

SJU

L 65-72

−1.5

CREI

W 72-61

−3.5

SJU

L 68-78

+10.5

over 13under 20avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Seton Hall has the better starters

Position by position: Kansas St 0, Seton Hall 4, even 1

Kansas StBetterSeton Hall

G B. Rechsteiner TR12 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

Even

G R. Brown TR13.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59

G J. Schutt TR7.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 39

HALLBig

G D. Jones TR17.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.3 ast Score 74

G M. Wheeler TR8.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 50

HALLSmall

G K. Thomas TR15.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 71

F D. Lindsay TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 51

HALLSmall

G R. Anderson TR10.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 81

F I. Abraham TR4.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

HALLBig

F D. Williams TR7.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 71

Kansas StBetterSeton Hall

KSU offense74th of 366 · +1.4

Even

HALL defense28th of 366 · +3.7

KSU defense97th of 366 · -0.7

Even

HALL offense97th of 366 · -0.8

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

HALLBig

Backcourt+2.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

HALLSmall

Frontcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestKSU betterHALL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kansas St

Guards

B. Rechsteiner28 min · TRJ. Schutt25 min · TRM. Wheeler22 min · TRA. Kostic14 minJ. AlexanderNew

Forwards

D. Lindsay21 min · TRI. Abraham20 min · TRT. Malovec15 min · TRP. N'Diaye9 min · TRB. Vice6 min · TRM. GilhoolNew

Centers

J. Rock13 min · TR

Seton Hall

Guards

R. Brown33 min · TRD. Jones33 min · TRK. Thomas30 min · TRR. Anderson24 min · TRE. Fisher21 minS. Wilcher19 min · TR

Forwards

D. Williams24 min · TRM. Wol20 min · TRT. CopelandNewT. AirhienbuwaNewI. DolinskiNew

Centers

A. Fanta Kabba17 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KSU79.6 #74

HALL70.3 #278

Points per possession

KSU1.08 #191

HALL1.06 #238

Pace (possessions)

KSU73.8 #11

HALL66.5 #296

Shooting

Effective FG%

KSU53.3 #88

HALL47.6 #321

3-point %

KSU36.4 #43

HALL30.5 #334

3-point attempt rate

KSU40.9 #148

HALL26.8 #362

Free throw rate

KSU26.9 #351

HALL35.3 #168

Possessions

Turnover rate

KSU17.4 #233

HALL16.6 #173

Offensive rebound rate

KSU29.2 #229

HALL35.6 #33

Assists per game

KSU16.8 #29

HALL13.1 #206

Defense

Points allowed

KSU81.8 #339

HALL65.3 #8

Points allowed per possession

KSU1.11 #244

HALL0.98 #16

Opponent effective FG%

KSU52.5 #239

HALL47.3 #25

Opponent 3-point %

KSU33.7 #166

HALL32.4 #87

Turnovers forced

KSU17.1 #145

HALL21.5 #5

Defensive rebound rate

KSU66.0 #317

HALL68.1 #251

Steals per game

KSU7.0 #121

HALL9.2 #7

Blocks per game

KSU3.5 #137

HALL5.7 #7

KSU		HALL
Scoring
79.6 #74	Points per game	70.3 #278
1.08 #191	Points per possession	1.06 #238
73.8 #11	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #296
Shooting
53.3 #88	Effective FG%	47.6 #321
36.4 #43	3-point %	30.5 #334
40.9 #148	3-point attempt rate	26.8 #362
26.9 #351	Free throw rate	35.3 #168
Possessions
17.4 #233	Turnover rate	16.6 #173
29.2 #229	Offensive rebound rate	35.6 #33
16.8 #29	Assists per game	13.1 #206
Defense
81.8 #339	Points allowed	65.3 #8
1.11 #244	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #16
52.5 #239	Opponent effective FG%	47.3 #25
33.7 #166	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #87
17.1 #145	Turnovers forced	21.5 #5
66.0 #317	Defensive rebound rate	68.1 #251
7.0 #121	Steals per game	9.2 #7
3.5 #137	Blocks per game	5.7 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kansas St

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs BYU91–105
L@ Kansas85–104
Wvs West Virginia65–63
Lvs TCU68–77
L@ Colorado70–79

A week or more of rest.

Seton Hall

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ St John's68–78
Wvs Creighton72–61
Lvs St John's65–72
W@ Xavier77–68
L@ UConn67–71

A week or more of rest.

Kansas State Wildcats at Seton Hall Pirates

What could decide it: HALL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas St

Seton Hall

Seton Hall has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kansas St

Seton Hall