1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 4
  3. BRAD @ UNT
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 4

Bradley Braves at North Texas Mean Green

The Super Pit · at North Texas
#167BRADBradley
@
#112UNTNorth Texas
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BRADThis seasonUNT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNT 76–68 · win probability UNT 75%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 143.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNT has more of the edges

BRAD 1, UNT 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNTSmall
BRAD offense vs UNT defense
Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BRAD plays 69.9 a game (125th fastest), UNT 67.6 (245th). Faster games mean more points
BRADSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BRAD 13.9%, UNT 16.8%. Forced: BRAD 18.9%, UNT 21.3%
UNTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BRAD 16%, UNT 45%. Transfers in: BRAD 3, UNT 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UNTSmall
Home court
UNT at home. This season: UNT 0-0 at home, BRAD 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
BRAD has played the 155th-hardest schedule, UNT the 121st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8; UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5
Even
UNT offense vs BRAD defense
Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BRAD 35.9, UNT 39.6. Allowed: BRAD 38.2, UNT 45.1
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BRAD 27.4%, UNT 33.5%. Defensive: BRAD 72.2%, UNT 67.6%
Even
Three-pointers
BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%; UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 40.5% and 32.4% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNT -7.8—
Total—143.1—
Projected score—BRAD 67.6 · UNT 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNT -4.5—
1H total67.0—
1H projected scoreBRAD 31.2 · UNT 35.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

North Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Bradley 0, North Texas 3, even 2
BradleyBetterNorth Texas
G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15
UNTBig
G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94
G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30
UNTSmall
G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53
G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47
F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50
UNTSmall
G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74
F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65
BradleyBetterNorth Texas
BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4
UNTSmall
UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0
BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3
Even
UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
UNTBig
Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestBRAD betterUNT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bradley
Guards
T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew
Forwards
X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew
Centers
G. GuimaresNew
North Texas
Guards
J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew
Forwards
R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BRADUNT
Scoring
77.0 #117Points per game69.1 #298
1.10 #129Points per possession1.02 #302
69.9 #125Pace (possessions)67.6 #245
Shooting
51.1 #189Effective FG%46.0 #349
36.1 #533-point %28.7 #358
40.5 #1613-point attempt rate32.4 #325
35.9 #156Free throw rate39.6 #63
Possessions
13.9 #19Turnover rate16.8 #182
27.4 #285Offensive rebound rate33.5 #76
13.3 #191Assists per game12.1 #282
Defense
74.2 #162Points allowed68.2 #35
1.06 #109Points allowed per possession1.01 #33
52.8 #259Opponent effective FG%48.5 #47
36.6 #334Opponent 3-point %30.9 #32
18.9 #53Turnovers forced21.3 #6
72.2 #62Defensive rebound rate67.6 #278
7.5 #86Steals per game8.9 #11
3.2 #192Blocks per game4.3 #51
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton66–80
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
  • Wvs Valparaiso90–84
  • Wvs Murray St87–78
  • L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa84–90
  • Wvs FAU74–70
  • Wvs Rice62–58
  • W@ UAB62–58
  • L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.