1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 30
  3. RID @ CONN
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 30

Rider Broncs at UConn Huskies

M&T Bank Center at Gampel Pavilion · at UConn
#347RIDRider
@
#6CONNUConn AP #4
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RIDThis seasonCONN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CONN 92–48 · win probability CONN 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

RID 1, CONN 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CONNBig
RID offense vs CONN defense
Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
CONNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7
CONNBig
CONN offense vs RID defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings
CONNBig
Three-pointers
RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%. Threes are 27.5% and 40.9% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, CONN the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CONNBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, CONN 35.7%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, CONN 71.2%
RIDSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: RID 30.1, CONN 29.9. Allowed: RID 32.5, CONN 40.7
CONNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, CONN 16.4%. Forced: RID 15.3%, CONN 17.8%
CONNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, CONN 51%. Transfers in: RID 6, CONN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CONNSmall
Home court
CONN at home. This season: CONN 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), CONN 66.1 (307th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CONN -43.7—
Total—139.8—
Projected score—RID 48.1 · CONN 91.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCONN -25.9—
1H total65.5—
1H projected scoreRID 19.8 · CONN 45.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UConn has the better starters

Position by position: Rider 0, UConn 2, even 3
RiderBetterUConn
G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44
CONNBig
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
CONNBig
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
RiderBetterUConn
RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2
CONNBig
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2
CONNBig
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
CONNBig
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.3 · 1 player
CONNBig
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestRID betterCONN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rider
Guards
M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew
Forwards
H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew
Centers
S. Avegah SemeyNew
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RIDCONN
Scoring
62.6 #359Points per game76.6 #129
0.95 #355Points per possession1.16 #52
65.7 #323Pace (possessions)66.1 #307
Shooting
42.8 #365Effective FG%54.3 #59
27.6 #3653-point %34.4 #150
27.5 #3613-point attempt rate40.9 #149
30.1 #307Free throw rate29.9 #313
Possessions
16.9 #197Turnover rate16.4 #163
32.6 #101Offensive rebound rate35.7 #30
10.1 #356Assists per game18.1 #9
Defense
76.8 #236Points allowed65.2 #6
1.17 #341Points allowed per possession0.99 #17
55.2 #335Opponent effective FG%45.7 #7
38.0 #356Opponent 3-point %30.1 #8
15.3 #266Turnovers forced17.8 #107
67.2 #294Defensive rebound rate71.2 #99
5.9 #247Steals per game6.8 #143
3.2 #188Blocks per game5.0 #15
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Siena61–76
  • L@ Iona58–80
  • Wvs Niagara67–62
  • Lvs Canisius66–72
  • L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.